Colorado Rockies: Three trade package ideas for Nolan Arenado

It’s not that difficult to find the positive in holding on to one of the three best players to ever call Coors Field home. However, if Colorado Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich is unable to convince Nolan Arenado to stay this offseason, where does the team go from there?

There are a few options. One is to hold on to the All-Star and put a serious team around him that he feels has a chance to win from the get-go in 2019, and hope you can convince him to re-sign when he hits free agency following the 2019 season … but then the Colorado Rockies risk him walking and receiving nothing.

Option two is trading him this offseason and just ripping the Band-Aid off without letting it fester, like Baltimore did with Manny Machado. You trade Arenado and, in turn, receive the most you possibly can. You’re still in a great position to win for the 2019 season, and avoid a season similar to 2015, when Troy Tulowitzki wanted out.

Option three would be trading him at the deadline, but I don’t think that Bridich would do this for two reasons. One, the team is too good to move a player like that midway through the season, especially after last year where they underperformed and then turned it on after the All-Star Game. Two, if he’s going to trade him, it’s now or never. Get the most you can now, or take your chances in free agency.

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Like I discussed in my free agency preview a few weeks ago, your options with and without Arenado are plentiful. If he’s not a part of your team, you have the opportunity to hold on to some pieces or go out and get a marquee free agent.

I think the basis of this entire process is that the Rockies have the opportunity to be in a great position to succeed with or without Nolan Arenado, but I’m sure I share the opinion that they are still in much better shape with #28 in a purple uniform.

Let’s dive into some realistic trade ideas and packages for Colorado if they did decide to move Arenado this offseason.

Trade 2: St. Louis Cardinals

Similar to Tulowitzki a few years ago, if Arenado were to be made available in talks, expect the Cardinals to be one of the first teams to inquire. Arenado talks about winning and, while St. Louis isn’t a dream destination for players, guys who play there know they will be given a chance to win every single year.

St. Louis hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2015, and they’re desperate to find a superstar. I know Matt Carpenter is great, but he should not be playing third base. If the Cardinals are given a chance to trade for a generational player, they will. They tried to last year with Giancarlo Stanton and failed. Personally, I think Arenado is a better player than Stanton. St. Louis won’t overpay, but they have a lot to offer and plenty of high-level pitching talent.

So here’s the trade…

St. Louis Cardinals receive: 3B Nolan Arenado

Colorado Rockies receive: RHP Carlos Martínez, C Carson Kelly, RHP Luke Weaver, SS Delvin Perez

Carlos Martínez may be a surprise to some of you if he were to be traded at all, but during the season he was enthralled in rumors and had sort of a weird season, going from Opening Day starter to the DL to closer by the end of the year, and he quietly had a very good season. In 33 games, 18 starts, he had a 3.11 ERA with 117 strikeouts in 118 innings, and he saved five games in the process. He’s under team control until 2021 and at a very good rate of $11.5 million per season. The Cardinals have so much young pitching talent that I think they’d be willing to part ways … and especially if Arenado is coming back.

Carson Kelly is an interesting prospect. He’s been “the future” for the Cardinals for three years now, and was the favorite to replace Yadier Molina at catcher when he retired … until the emergence of Andrew Knizner in the Cardinals’ system the last few years

In limited Major League time over three seasons, Kelly has been largely disappointing at the plate. In 62 career Major League games, he’s hit a meager .154 with zero home runs and 10 RBI in about 130 plate appearances. However, because he’s never had consistent playing time, and for the last three seasons he’s been so up and down between Triple-A and the Majors, so a change of scenery could be huge for him.

He just turned 24 a few months ago and he’s excellent defensively already. Hitting at Coors Field seems to help everyone, and if he got the at-bats over Tony Wolters, he would be a very viable major league option for Colorado, still with a high upside.

Luke Weaver has had an interesting few seasons in St. Louis. He was electric during the stretch run in 2017 and ended up making the rotation in 2018 and was very solid for most of the year. He was relegated to the bullpen when guys like Daniel Poncedeleon and Austin Gomber came into the mix, and he got roughed up a bit. Like Kelly, he’s a guy who could use a change of scenery and he could fill the role of a fifth starter or even the “Chris Rusin role” that the Rockies didn’t get great production out of last season.

He finished 2017 at 7-2 with a 3.88 ERA in 60 innings. In 2018, he was 7-11 with a 4.95 ERA in 25 starts and 30 games, although he gave up nine runs in his last three appearances which inflated the ERA a bit. He is under team control for at least four more years, and he just turned 25, so I think he would still be a very solid arm to get back.

Delvin Perez would be a serious wild card. A first-round pick in 2016, Perez fell in the draft after failing a drug test, but was still one of the higher-rated high school players in the draft. He has struggled in the minors since being drafted, but the upside is still very much there. He will be turning just 20 years old in November, and he has slightly improved on his poor showing in 2017.

For the Low-A State College Spikes in 2018, he hit just .213, but he did get on base at an over .300 clip.

Trade #3: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

A trade home for Arenado would be something that stings a little less for Rockies fans. One, because he would be returning to his native southern California. Two, he would be in the American League. I would love to see Arenado hit in front or behind Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani … and so would the rest of the baseball world.

The Angels, who will be under a new manager in 2019, need to start winning with Mike Trout Otherwise, they could be facing a similar situation to Arenado of “will he, won’t he, and should we?” in a few years and a guy like Arenado would help the winning part move faster.

So here’s the trade…

Los Angeles Angels receive: 3B Nolan Arenado, RHP Harrison Musgrave

Colorado Rockies receive: RHP Cam Bedrosian, OF Jordan (Jo) Adell (#15, MLB.com), LHP Patrick Sandoval, RHP Joe Gatto

Cam Bedrosian would be a very solid piece that the Rockies could get back, and I don’t think the Angels would feel it very much. He’s been, quietly, one of the more solid relievers in baseball the last three seasons. His only downside is he hasn’t exactly tipped the scale in appearances, averaging just 55 over three seasons, and that’s skewed by 71 in 2018 compared to just 48 and 45 in 2017 and 2016. But when he pitches he has been effective. In 149 innings since 2016, he has compiled a 3.26 ERA, giving up just 13 home runs and averaging nearly 10 strikeouts per nine. He still has time to grow, as he just turned 27 years old three weeks ago, and could be a good asset for the Rockies.

Jo Adell gets me jazzed up. The kid is going to be a star in this league, and it isn’t a secret. In only his second season of professional baseball, the No. 10 pick of the 2017 draft hit a combined .290/.355/.543 in 2018, including 20 home runs, 77 RBI, 32 doubles, four triples, 83 runs scored, and 15 stolen bases in just 99 games between A, A+, and Double-A. May I also remind you that he turned 19 during Opening Week.

In 148 career minor league games, he has hit .302/.362/.539 with 25 home runs, 107 RBI, 43 doubles, 12 triples, 123 runs scored, and swiped 23 bases. He also played all three outfield positions, but mostly in center field. He’s a true five-tool player. If you’re trading your best player, and one of the best in baseball, you need to get Jo Adell back.

Patrick Sandoval would be a serious get for the Rockies in a trade with the Angels. He’s not extremely highly rated in the Angels system, as he entered the year as Los Angeles’ No. 19 prospect (via MLB.com), but all the 11th round pick of the 2015 draft did was have a monster 2018 season. Between A, A+, and Double-A, he compiled a 2.06 ERA in 122.1 innings, with 145 strikeouts to just 29 walks. When the 2019 prospect lists rolls around, I’m sure he will springboard up the list. As of right now, however, the recently turned 22-year-old left hander is an underrated prospect that would be an excellent get for Colorado.

Joe Gatto is the upside throw-in in this scenario. The 23-year-old right-hander has a career 4.80 ERA in 390 innings across five minor league seasons. I think maybe after that kind of production, he should be moved to the bullpen and give that a try. He’s started 86 of the 90 games that he has appeared in, and a change of position and scenery would probably be a good thing.

Obviously this is all speculation, but the teams that I mentioned would likely be in the mix for Arenado if he were to be put on the block. While it may not seem like the Rockies would be getting a lot back, you have to keep in the back of your mind that it could only be a one-year rental for these teams, and if Colorado could manage to get a top prospect and a solid Major Leaguer or two, you’re still in contention to win in 2019.

This is one of those rare scenarios where a good team may have to consider parting with their best player. I, like the rest of Rockies fans, hope that this article never needs to be used for reference, but the possibility for a trade like this is definitely there.