Colorado Rockies: German Marquez is getting Coors’d

DENVER, CO - JULY 29: German Marquez #48 of the Colorado Rockies pitches against the Oakland Athletics in the first inning of a game during interleague play at Coors Field on July 29, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - JULY 29: German Marquez #48 of the Colorado Rockies pitches against the Oakland Athletics in the first inning of a game during interleague play at Coors Field on July 29, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
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DENVER, CO – MAY 10: Starting pitcher German Marquez #48 of the Colorado Rockies throws in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Coors Field on May 10, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – MAY 10: Starting pitcher German Marquez #48 of the Colorado Rockies throws in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Coors Field on May 10, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

The Colorado Rockies pitching staff is having one of its finest seasons. With a shift in attitude to approaching altitude, local boy Kyle Freeland has captained bullpen coach Darren Holmes‘ philosophy, “Coors Field doesn’t eliminate success. Coors Field eliminates the weak.”

Freeland, like most of the Colorado Rockies pitchers in 2018, has seemingly not only figured out Coors Field — and the challenges that come with pitching at altitude — but has eliminated the park from even being a valid excuse.

The same has not been true with German Marquez. The 23-year-old righty is having phenomenal season with just a small stain … his home starts haven’t been as dominant as his road ones.

It’s key to note before getting into this that the numbers for Marquez as a whole are very good and his road starts have been elite, which is part of the reason is just decent home starts even stand out.

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That said, Marquez has a 7-3 record with a 2.89 ERA on the road and a 4-6 record with a 6.42 ERA at home. The biggest peripheral standout beyond that is a walk rate per nine that increases with elevation from 2.44 to 3.79. Part of that is that he’s walking more batters — obviously — while the other part is that he’s not going as deep into his starts at home, lasting only 5.1 innings rather than the 6.1 innings when he is out on the road.

But going back to the walk thing which would stop this whole story in its tracks, his walk rate is only three percent higher at home and his ball to strike ratio is essentially the same so that’s not really a viable answer.

So what is it? Let’s take a look.

LOS ANGELES, CA – JUNE 30: Starting pitcher German Marquez #48 of the Colorado Rockies throws a pitch against Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Dodger Stadium on June 30, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA – JUNE 30: Starting pitcher German Marquez #48 of the Colorado Rockies throws a pitch against Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Dodger Stadium on June 30, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images) /

Given that Marquez has an elite curveball, that makes sense that his walk rate is slightly higher in Denver. He relies on curveballs to get many outs and a curveball is most effected by the mile high elevation.

But that’s not actually it. His expected weighted On Base Average (xwOBA) is virtually the same between home and road for his curveball. His stuff is playing everywhere and the addition of a better slider and change up actually has him bordering on elite away from Denver.

Tony Wolters verried this as well calling his curveball “plus-plus” and saying that it plays everywhere.

Marquez’ hard hit rate at home is 38.5 percent with an average exit velocity of 89 mph. On the road, it’s 37.1 percent with an exit velocity of 87.7 mph exit velo. So that doesn’t show what’s happening either.

Instead, what’s happening can be shown in where the ball is ending up and not even how it’s being hit.

Marquez hasn’t pitched the same amount at home or road but based on the two graphs below you can see that he’s given up far more flares and burners at home (top) than on the road (under.)

This was detailed in his last start at Coors Field where Marquez allowed 10 hits, most of them of the weak variety. Those flares and burners are falling more and that explains why his .381 to .246 BABIP, depending on the location of the hill he takes. A better way to put it is his WOBA is 66 points higher than his XWOBA in Denver and 25 lower outside the Centennial State.

German Marquez, he’s being Coors Field’d to death. That helps to explain it … but the funny thing is, even with that and a pretty high ERA in comparison to his Colorado companions, there is still a pretty good pitcher hiding inside Marquez.

PHOENIX, AZ – JULY 20: Starting pitcher German Marquez #48 of the Colorado Rockies talks with catcher Tony Wolters #14 during a mound visit in the first inning of an MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on July 20, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, AZ – JULY 20: Starting pitcher German Marquez #48 of the Colorado Rockies talks with catcher Tony Wolters #14 during a mound visit in the first inning of an MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on July 20, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images) /

There’s one more note that I found interesting while researching this story. At Coors, he’s averaging just 88.4 pitchers per start. Away from Colorado’s capital he’s averaging 99.6. As documented above, he’s throwing the same amount of strikes, and he’s also throwing the same pitch mix in all the parks. Marquez even verified to me he isn’t intending to turn himself in a Jon Gray-esq pitcher that uses a curve on the road and a slider at home.

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Either Marquez is getting Coors’d in BABIP forcing Bud Black to goto the bullpen earlier or he may be getting tired quicker at Coors.

As well document altitude has a profound impact on sleeping and fatigue. Off of sheer observation of the pitch count numbers, and his ERA and strikeout splits second and third time through the order at Coors Field and away from it, there is a valid theory that he is being bitten by Coors Field’s altitude in more ways than just unlucky batted balls.

Once again this is not to say German Marquez has been bad because that is untrue and there are more numbers that suggest that there are fixable issues, issues nobody can control and random noise going on with Marquez than there is an indictment that he actually struggles at Coors Field.

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What’s happened to Marquez is that there is small sample size, some poor luck and growing pains. And, most importantly, the fact that Marquez is now in a Colorado Rockies rotation that has undergone a transformation from rejects to rockstars.

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