Colorado Rockies: The curious case of Mike Dunn

The Rockies bullpen is wrapping up tight games with machine-like consistency.

After either Jake McGee or Bryan Shaw make an appearance, Adam Ottavino and Wade Davis (aka “Wade Savis”) close games with a riveting one-two punch. They’re the magic behind the Rockies’ 7-3 record in one-run games, which is third-best in baseball.

And then there’s Mike Dunn. He is languishing in a cleanup role, off to a horrendous start to the 2018 campaign. Over 11 appearances and 9.0 innings pitched, he sports an ERA of 10.00 — the highest on the Rockies’ pitching staff. His ERA+ is an unsightly 47 and he is having serious control issues, giving up eight walks while striking out just six, contributing to a WHIP of 2.22.

There isn’t much horizontal movement to Dunn’s fastball or his high-velocity slider, so establishing control of these pitches is imperative. That control is missing so far this season. For example, if you check out at the spray charts of his eighth-inning appearance against the Pirates on April 18, batters took advantage of nearly every pitch he missed inside the zone.

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But if you are searching for a glimmer of optimism, Dunn’s field independent pitching (FIP) is 5.94, suggesting he is pitching better than his ERA would suggest. His batting average for balls in play (BABIP) is also an unnaturally high .367, and is bound to regress (his career average is .301).

While we revel in the success of the top end of the bullpen, Dunn has to rediscover his form while he has the chance. A baseball season is a long, grueling and chaotic slog, and there is no telling what could happen going forward. McGee has been shaky while Shaw has battled his own inconsistency. Chris Rusin looks eminently hittable. And there is always the risk of a catastrophic injury to Ottavino or Davis.

Dunn has the stuff. In 2017, he spent his first month with the Rockies pitching in high-leverage situations as an effective set-up man for Greg Holland. While pitching 7.2 innings and facing 29 batters, he struck out 10 and allowed just one run and two walks.

Of course, the honeymoon came to a grinding halt, as Dunn was disastrous in the months of May and June after a brief stint on the disabled list. He pitched 18.2 innings and was torched for seven home runs as he lost command of his fastball. Despite racking up 25 strikeouts, he gave up 13 walks, and his WHIP was 1.98. His ERA was 7.71 and his FIP was hardly better at 7.44, showing that Dunn truly dug his own grave. By the All-Star break, he was eating innings the bottom of the bullpen.

But Dunn recovered dramatically in 2017, acquiring an ERA of 3.00, a FIP of 3.49, and a WHIP of 1.13 in the period from July through September. And he only gave up one home run. The turnaround was more than welcome, but manager Bud Black still didn’t seem to trust him as a back-end reliever, and he never regained his role as a set-up man.

Next: An exclusive interview with Harrison Musgrave

Guys like Brooks Pounders and Harrison Musgrave have shown potential in their brief stints with the Rockies, but Mike Dunn is a veteran with the talent and experience to be a reliever for a playoff contender. He just needs to find that form again. As the Rockies hover precariously just over .500, we shouldn’t be afraid to ask: could the real Mike Dunn please stand up?

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