Colorado Rockies: Is it time to worry about Bryan Shaw?

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PHOENIX, AZ – MARCH 30: Relief pitcher Bryan Shaw #29 of the Colorado Rockies pitcher against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the MLB game at Chase Field on March 30, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

No one will want to forget Friday’s nightmare loss to the Chicago Cubs faster than Colorado Rockies reliever Bryan Shaw.

Down 6-3 in the sixth inning, Shaw replaced struggling starter Jon Gray and inherited a runner on third with no outs. He walked Tommy La Stella on five pitches before allowing two singles, a double, and advancing two runners on a wild pitch.

But Kyle Schwarber issued the deathblow by smashing a three-run homer to center field on the first pitch he saw. Shaw was promptly pulled for Scott Oberg with the Rockies down 12-3, having shattered any hope of a Rockies rally.

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Shaw struggled again on Sunday, going a third of an inning and allowing two hits before Mike Dunn bailed him out. For an accomplished reliever just signed to a three-year, $27 millon deal, Rockies fans might be wondering if all is right with the Shawty (a new nickname I just made up).

Shaw’s 2017 numbers with Cleveland suggest Shaw would have success with the Rockies and pitching at Coors Field. His ground ball rate was an impressive 55.9 percent, his best in a full season in the majors, and the strikeout rate a solid 23.4 percent. He gave up just five home runs in 79 appearances and 76.2 innings, a fantastic 0.59 home runs allowed per nine innings.

He also boasted a 3.52 ERA, but his field independent pitching (FIP) — a great statistic that measures a pitcher’s performance by stripping out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, according to FanGraphs — was 2.96. This indicates he was an even more effective pitcher in 2017 than his ERA suggests.

But through 13 appearances in 2018, Shaw’s numbers scan more like maligned former reliever Jordan Lyles than a key member of Jeff Bridich’s new “Super Bullpen.” He’s already allowed three home runs, with an ERA of 7.59 and a FIP of 6.43. Perhaps most disappointing is the ground ball rate, which is down to 42.1 percent.

He’s getting burned with hard contact (too many line drives and home runs), at a rate of 35.1 percent. And he’s struggled with command of his high-velocity cutter; Schwarber hit his Friday home run on a pitch left tantalizingly in the middle of the zone. Shaw’s thrown the cutter nearly 90 percent of the time so far, so it’s imperative that he owns this pitch.

But in spite of the ugly numbers, it’s too early to be on Bryan Shaw Panic Watch.

DENVER, CO – APRIL 22: Pitcher Bryan Shaw #29 of the Colorado Rockies throws in the sixth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Coors Field on April 22, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Obviously, we are talking about a small sample size, only 10.2 innings in 13 appearances so far. That nasty outing on April 20 accounts for five of his nine earned runs on the season. And his batting average for balls in play (BABIP) is an insane .389, which is bound to stabilize to something closer to his career average is .290 or last season’s .311. Sure, Coors and its massive outfield will keep his BABIP a little inflated, but expect this number to decline quite a bit.

This also isn’t Shaw’s first poor start to a campaign. His second appearance of 2016 was similar to his rough night against the Cubs, as he gave up five earned runs on four hits, a walk, and a home run against the Chicago White Sox. A few appearances later, he allowed two home runs and four earned runs against the New York Mets. (Just to have some “fun” with a small sample size, at that point his ERA was 24.50 and his FIP was 14.25.) But he would rediscover his form and end the season with an ERA of 3.24 and a FIP of 3.94.

And finally, let’s not forget that despite these shaky outings, Shaw has been pretty good in most appearances this year. His control is encouraging, as he’s allowed just four walks. He pitched for a whole inning or more in eight of his first nine outings. And he employed his slider to great effect this weekend, getting hot-hitting Javier Baez and Willson Contreras to strike out swinging.

Once he rediscovers command of his cutter, he should limit hard contact and improve his ground ball rate. Pitches over the middle of the plate are killing him right now.

Shaw’s problems could just be some combination of growing pains with a new squad and pitching at the most hitter-friendly park in baseball (#Coors). He’s posted better numbers on the road so far, and a positive regression in ground ball rate and BABIP should help matters.

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But if Shaw continues to struggle, then hey — at least we can take solace in Adam Ottavino.

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No one will want to forget Friday’s nightmare loss to the Chicago Cubs faster than Colorado Rockies reliever Bryan Shaw.

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