The Colorado Rockies have one of the best winning percentages in one-run games during the 2017 season. Although, the numbers may not be as good as they look.
Coming into Friday’s second game of a critical four-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine, the Rockies own a 18-11 record in one-run games. The one-run stat can be fluky and won’t tell the full story about certain games, but it can also tell a lot about a potential playoff team.
For example, the Texas Rangers last year owned the American League’s best regular season record. Texas also had an eye-popping 36-11 record in one-run games. To have that great of record takes a lot of luck, which seemed to be the case as the Rangers were swept by the Blue Jays in the ALDS.
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The Rockies’ one-run game record isn’t as much as fluky the Rangers’, but there is cause for concern. Colorado started the season 9-0 in one-run games. Since May 5, however, they are 9-11. Part of the fall back to .500 in those games are the 2nd half struggles of closer Greg Holland and the rest of the bullpen.
Colorado has played 11 one-games since the beginning of August, but only one was against a potential playoff team. For a team on pace to play in the Wild Card game, one run could be the difference in making it to the NLDS.
In last year’s Major League Baseball postseason, 14 games were decided by one run. As the Cubs and Indians know, one run can be the difference in the World Series.
So what are the keys for Colorado when it comes to tight games? First and foremost, Holland needs to get back to All-Star form. Thankfully for the Rockies, it looks like he has once the month changed from August to September. Nolan Arenado might have to share his clutch gene. In the end, the Rockies are a good one-run game team that could lead them deep into the playoffs and possibly to a World Series.