What Are the Rockies World Series Chances?

At the beginning of the 2017 MLB season, the Colorado Rockies were given a 1 in 50 chance to win the World Series. As of right now, the Rockies have found a way to be one of the best teams in baseball.

However, the Rockies are slated to be a wild card, for the Los Angeles Dodgers are on pace for one of the best seasons in MLB history as they are on pace for a win total between 112 and 113 wins. If the playoffs were to start now, here is how it would all play out but before we dive into that, let’s make our case for the Rockies taking home the pennant.

Obviously, the Rockies have maybe the best offense in all of baseball this year, starting with Charlie Blackmon and DJ LeMahieu. Both players are hitting around .315 this year, meaning the chances of one of the two getting on are actually a lot higher than you would think. Next in the order is usually the MVP candidate, Nolan Arenado. Arenado is leading the MLB in RBI’s this year, and it’s not even close. The next man down, Jake Lamb, has 9 less RBI’s than Nolan. He consistently finds any possible way to get runs home, whether that’s hitting a ground ball to second to score the runner from third, to finding his pitch and hitting a home run.

The starting rotation is what scares us Rockie fans the most. In other words, the rotation has done exactly what we thought it would do. The lineup featuring a handful of rookies had an excellent start to the year, only to fall off a cliff by July. Here’s what fans are missing though. The Rockies have a lot of pitching. Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland have probably been the best. Between Marquez, Senzatela, Hoffman, Chatwood, and even Chad Bettis, the Rockies have so many guys who can start games for us. When one man gets fatigued, Bud Black can simply move him to the bullpen for a week and let someone else pitch in his spot. Rockies pitching may not be great, but they’re typically good enough to let the offense win the game.

The bullpen should not be in the way of a pennant anymore either. The Rockies recently acquired Pat Neshek from the Phillies. Neshek has been phenomenal this season, posting a 1.12 ERA. Throw him in with Greg Holland and any starters that aren’t in the rotation, and the bullpen is set.

Wild Card Game: Colorado at Arizona. Colorado’s odds: 50%

The Rockies would be facing the Diamondbacks on the road in a win or go home wild card game. If Colorado could find a way to be the home team, their odds of winning would dramatically go up.

The Diamondbacks live on pitching. Forcing Zack Greinke to throw in the high altitude would put the Rockies in a huge advantage. However, they could still win on the road. the Rockies have beat up on Greinke before.

To be completely honest, the wild card game really is a coin flip. Any team can beat any other team, and this game embodies that. Throw in the fact that these teams are really close and competitive with each other (Arizona leads the season series 5-4), and you have a 50/50 ballgame.

Given the Rockies win, they would likely play the Los Angeles Dodgers. Colorado’s odds: 15-20%

The Dodgers are having a historic season. They have the best record in baseball, and it’s not even close. Houston is the next team up, and are still 3.5 games back. The Nationals are 9 games behind them. It seems to big of a mountain to climb for the Rockies, especially after using Gray in the wild card game. So, why even give Colorado a chance?

For starters, the Dodgers have almost become known for playing awful in the playoffs. Despite being in contention for the past 5 or 6 years, Los Angeles has not made any noise in the World Series.

Let’s also remember Clayton Kershaw will be coming back from injury. If his first start back at the major league level is in the playoffs against a red hot offense, can we really expect him to be the ace he is?

You also have to consider that Kershaw is 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA in 18 postseason appearances (14 of which have been starts).

Taking Kershaw out of the rotation doesn’t completely ruin their probable starters, but it does take a massive hit. The Rockies do not have great chances against an all-time great team, but I would give them a 20% chance to find a way to move on.

Though unlikely, let’s say the Rockies beat the Dodgers. They would then play either the Washington Nationals or the Chicago Cubs. Colorado’s odds against Washington: 25%

This is given the Nationals beat the Cubs, which seems likely at this point in the season. After likely taking 5 epic games to defeat the Dodgers, the Rockies would likely have a lot of fatigue and weakness in the bullpen. However, if the offense is hot, the Rockies can beat anybody. We have never seen any position player on the Rockies in the playoffs, besides Carlos Gonzalez. And Cargo really isn’t an important piece in their offense anymore. Who knows how this team will respond when in these pressure situations.

The Rockies are pretty massive underdogs in this series, but the offensive firepower they have will always give them a chance, which is why the odds of winning stand at 25%.