Colorado Rockies: The debate for and against Nolan Arenado

2 of 2

With one simple tweet, Colorado Rockies fans knew very quickly that Rox Pile had a FanSided cousin who covered the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Truth is, Rox Pile has FanSided cousins who cover every Major League team. Sometimes we agree on things. Sometimes we don’t. That’s what families do.

The tweet sent out from the Rum Bunter Twitter account that was sent out during the All-Star Game immediately riled up Rockies fans … and for good reason.

Nolan Arenado is not just a product of Coors Field, he also isn't a top 5 third baseman in baseball.
— Rum Bunter (@rumbunter) July 12, 2017

Huh?

Colorado Rockies

Of course, we were asked to not only explain the cousin’s tweet but also to remove him off the stage like an old episode of The Gong Show.

Well, here’s the deal … this is America. And, as much as we may not like it sometimes, everyone has their right to an opinion. My grandpa fought in World War II and my dad fought in Vietnam for those freedoms, even when someone expresses an opinion that we completely disagree with.

I reached out to Rum Bunter with a simple proposal: You write why you don’t believe Nolan is a top five third baseman. I’ll write why I think he is. We’ll present our arguments to the masses and let the readers decide. A good old-fashioned point-counter point.

Marty from Rum Bunter accepted my offer and penned the words below. I’ll present my counter-argument on the next page.

See what you think and feel free to comment in the comments section below…

The case against Nolan Arenado

Let me preface this by saying I believe Nolan Arenado is a hell of a player. He is undoubtedly one of the best two-way players in all of Major League Baseball, as well as being one of the best third basemen in the game right now. However, currently, third base is arguably the deepest it has ever been in Major League history.

Nolan Arenado is one of the best players in the National League. Unlike so many Rockies players before him, he is not a product of Coors Field. As it is for most Major League players who do not play at a pitcher’s park, his home numbers are of course better. However, the gap between his career stats at home (116 wRC+) and on the road (105 wRC+) are not huge and he is an above average career hitter both at and away from Coors Field.

Hell, in 2017 he has been better on the road (117 wRC+) than he has been at Coors Field (113 wRC+).

There is no denying Nolan Arenado’s power. Since the start of the 2015 season, he leads all Major League third basemen in home runs (100), ISO (.275), and slugging percentage (.568). These are insanely good power numbers.

Hitting, however, entitles a lot more than just hitting home runs. In terms of being a complete hitter, there are multiple third basemen better than Arenado. During this same stretch, he is 10th among Major League third basemen in wRC+ at 120.

A big reason for this is Arenado is not an overly patient hitter. His 7.4 percent walk rate since the start of 2015 is outside the top-20 on Major League third basemen. As a result, his .345 on-base percentage the past three seasons is good for 12th among Major League third basemen.

Defensively, Arenado is a wizard. This is not news to any of you reading this, and most likely is not news to any baseball fan. His 24.0 dWAR the past three seasons is good for fourth in baseball. His offensive prowess combined with his defensive skills places him fifth among Major League third basemen in fWAR (FanGraph’s WAR) since the start of 2015 at 12.6.

The three third basemen ahead of him in fWAR are Kris Bryant, Josh Donaldson, and Justin Turner. When looking at the top seven third basemen in fWAR during this stretch, Arenado has played more games than any of the others. While this is a testament to his durability, it also makes his fWAR per game sixth in the Major Leagues during this stretch.

Nolan Arenado is a strong defensive third baseman who possesses great power. However, there are a handful of third basemen in baseball right now that are better all-around hitters and players than Arenado is. That’s not even a knock on Arenado as much as it is a testament to how strong the third base position currently is in baseball.

DENVER, CO – JULY 08: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies throws out Melky Cabrera #53 of the Chicago White Sox in the first inning at Coors Field on July 8, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

First things first. Marty, thanks for clarifying some of your earlier comments from your tweet. I appreciate your thoughts and candor … and your perspective from outside the Mountain time zone.

I hope you’ll appreciate mine as well. I’m lucky enough to get to watch Nolan play in person. I have watched him play in person since he was at Double-A Tulsa. I’ve seen first-hand his progression from a kid with a lot of potential to starting the All-Star Game at third base.

I agree completely that there is a wealth of talent at third base today in Major League Baseball. But so many people equate Arenado to “Coors.” Every debate about Nolan Arenado (or any other member of the Colorado Rockies lineup) always starts with some diatribe about Coors Field. It’s an old, worn-out and inaccurate argument. It’s time it takes its place alongside the “earth is flat” and “a hot dog is a sandwich” theories.

Did any of those “Coors theory” folks happen to check out this great article from MLB.com that actually discusses which parks are statistically the easiest places to hit home runs? Coors Field isn’t even in the top five. Minute Maid Park in Houston is the top place so shall we start dissecting how bad the Astros offense really is because of the park they play in?

More from Rox Pile

What makes Arenado special is that he not only provides an offensive spark for the Rockies day after day after day but he also is a wizard on defense. Four Gold Gloves, one for every season he’s started the year for the Rockies at third base.

OK, so this argument isn’t about just defense. I get that. If it were, anyone could certainly look at his all-time fielding percentage at third and see that it ranks fifth among all third baseman in the history of the game. Manny Machado ranks 16^thon the list. Josh Donaldson is 108th.

From 2015-current, Arenado leads all MLB third baseman in DRS (defensive runs saved) with 54. Next after that? Adrian Beltre with 34.

But hey, you don’t want to talk just defense. Otherwise, Nolan wins. Fine. Let’s dive into some of the offensive numbers.

First, if you’re only using WAR to compare players to each other, you’re missing out on a lot of the picture. It’s the same trap Keith Law and others have fallen into when it comes to measuring a player.

There is no one statistic that can sum up the worth of a player. Sorry. There isn’t. One of my favorite lines about WAR from FanGraphs is this, “Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation.”

It’s a statistic that works best as an approximation. OK then.

Let’s see if we can find some other findings that might be a little more concrete.

How about starting with another award? Arenado has captured the National League’s last two Silver Sluggers at third base. Silver Sluggers are awarded based on “several offensive categories in selecting the winners, including batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage, in addition to ‘coaches’ and managers’ general impressions of a player’s overall offensive value.'” In other words, Arenado was given the award for the top offensive player over league MVP Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon and Justin Turner for the last two years.

He has more total bases over the last two seasons than any other Major League player. Not just third baseman. Any other Major League hitter.

Not concrete enough for you?

Marty, you mention walks in your argument. In 2015, you’re right, Arenado wasn’t very patient, with just 34 walks all season. That number jumped to 68 in 2016 and he has 27 walks at the break this year. It’s something he has worked on and improved.

Oh, and his strikeouts went down during that span as well, dipping from 110 in 2015 to 103 in 2016.

Arenado is becoming a more patient hitter. That should scare all Major League pitchers.

The bottom line is this … every player in Major League Baseball has to be judged by his complete worth to the team. That includes offense and defense. Players shouldn’t be just one-dimensional. If they are, they can join David Ortiz and Edgar Martinez in the designated hitter club.

Next: Nolan is tops, but where do the other 39 Rockies rank?

I don’t want a player on my team who can just hit and not play the field. I don’t want someone you have to hide in the lineup so his defensive weaknesses aren’t exposed or someone who comes in as a defensive replacement. I want someone like Nolan Arenado, a guy who plays with emotion, can hit for power, knock in runs in clutch situations and can field anything that’s hit to him and make it look easy. I don’t need advanced metrics to tell me that’s not only a top five third baseman but also a guy who could be a cornerstone of any Major League team playing in any park at any altitude in the nation.

Home / Colorado Rockies News

Colorado Rockies

The case against Nolan Arenado

More from Rox Pile

Schedule