Five Bold Predictions for the Rockies in the Second Half

The Rockies enter the All-Star Break with a 52-39 record, good enough for third place in the NL West and for the second wild-card spot, 7.5 games ahead of the reigning World Champion Chicago Cubs.

The Colorado Rockies entered the All-Star break on a very high note as Kyle Freeland nearly threw a no-hitter on Sunday against the Chicago White Sox (as we discussed in these two articles). The Rockies and their fans are hoping that Freeland’s performance will get the Rockies back on the right track after playing poorly the past two and a half weeks. However, they still have a strong hold on the second wild card spot in the National League so the Rockies and their fans hope that the team will continue their success into the second half and clinch a playoff spot. However, before that, the Rockies have to play the second half of the season. Here are some bold predictions for the second half.

The Rockies starter’s ERA in May was a stellar 3.96 ERA, which was 12 percent better than league average. Their opponent’s slash line was .240/.320/.408. In comparison, in June, the starters had an ERA of 4.97, nine percent worse than league average. Their opponent’s slash line was .282/.351/.467. Thus far in July, the numbers are in the middle of May and June as the starter’s ERA is 4.17, which is four percent better than league average, and an opponent’s slash line of .264/.331/.454.

However, the Rockies will acquire two starting pitchers at the deadline. With the Rockies having four of their main six starters (at least, thus far in the season) being rookies, I believe that they will all be optioned at one point or another to hold back the MLB service time so the Rockies get an extra year of control (to understand how the whole “MLB service time” works, this article from MLB.com from 2015 talking about the Chicago Cubs Kris Bryant is a good read.) Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has already been sent down (as discussed in this article) so it wouldn’t be surprising if it happened to the other three rookies.

Of the starting pitchers on the market, I believe that one of the pitchers acquired will be part of a blockbuster for a young veteran who is a top-flight pitcher who still has a few years left on his contract. I believe that the other will be a middle to back of the rotation starter who is possibly a rental. We’ll discuss names in an article that will be published tomorrow.

The Rockies’ outfielders, with the obvious exception of Charlie Blackmon, who will be starting in center field for the National League All-Star team in Miami tonight, have struggled (particularly Ian Desmond and Carlos Gonzalez). They both have spent time on the DL this year with injury as Desmond is currently on the DL and Gonzalez just came off the DL (as discussed here).

Desmond has only played in 57 games thus far and he’s only had 12 extra base hits (including five home runs and six doubles) with 26 RBIs. He is hitting .283 but his on-base percentage is fairly low (.321) and his slugging percentage has dropped off significantly compared to 2016 (.446 down to .388). This is part of the reason that his OPS+ had also dropped 30% from 104 to 74.

Gonzalez’s puzzling season was chronicled a few days ago in this article. In 74 games and he’s only had 19 extra base hits (13 doubles and six home runs) and 22 RBIs. He’s only hitting .221 with a .299 on-base percentage and a .338 slugging percentage with an OPS+ of 57.

This is a fall from grace from 2016 as he had 25 HRs, 100 RBIs, 174 hits, 42 doubles, a .298 average, .350 on-base percentage, a .505 slugging percentage, and a 111 OPS+.

Some potential acquisitions could be J.D. Martinez of the Detroit Tigers, Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich, each of the Miami Marlins (all of these players have been in at least one of these three articles.)

If the Rockies are currently have a 52-39 record, which is a little bit above a .571 winning percentage. That winning percentage would put them at 92.57 to end the season (so essentially, 93 wins). By record, the best season in Rockies’ history was 2009 when the team went 92-70 so even at their current pace, the Rockies’ would have their best season in their 25 season history. However, if they acquire some help for the starting pitching rotation, outfield, and bullpen as well as see improvement from their current players (Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, etc.), this team could easily win 100 games.

Before their recent slide in which they lost 13 of 18 heading into the All-Star break, the Rockies were in first place in the National League West with a 47-26 record on June 20. Their winning percentage was .644 which would put them at 104 wins (if you round down).

Their schedule also favors them as well as they only have 25 games for the remainder of their 71 games (or 35%) against teams with a winning record. For the remaining schedule (going in order without counting offdays), they have three games a piece with each the Mets, Padres, Pirates, Cardinals, Nationals (team with a winning record), Mets (again), and Phillies (through August 7). They have two games against the reigning American League champion Indians, three with the Marlins, four with the Braves, three each with the Brewers (winning team), Royals (winning team), Braves (again), Tigers, Diamondbacks (winning team), and Giants through September 6.

The hardest part of the schedule then comes on September 7 with four each with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks on the road (winning teams). Following that is a break three with the Padres, two with the Giants, four with the Padres, three with Miami before ending the regular season with three games with the Dodgers.

Especially in the rest of July and most of August, the Rockies should able to get on a roll.

The Rockies won’t be playing in the Wild Card game because they will win the National League West.

(GASP!!!) I know, call me crazy because the Dodgers have played very well lately and the Rockies haven’t played well but these aren’t wimpy predictions, they’re bold predictions and this one could actually happen. The Dodgers even have a better schedule than the Rockies as they only have 21 games with winning teams for the remainder of the year but crazier things have happened.

The 2011 Boston Red Sox had a nine game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays and a half game lead over the New York Yankees for the American League East heading into September. They choked and didn’t even make the playoffs. Ironically, this was the last season before the second wild card. Had it been in existence then, the Red Sox still would have gotten the second spot by four games over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

The Rockies have a 9.5 game gap between the them and the Dodgers with a month and a half longer than the Dodgers so it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility. As mentioned on the previous slide, if the current Rockies play up to their potential and if they acquire some help at the deadline, this is another achievement that the Rockies could accomplish. It obviously wouldn’t be the easiest thing to do but over 71 games, it’s more achievable than you think.