Colorado Rockies: Grading and Analyzing the 2016 Rotation

The Colorado Rockies‘ front office anticipates competing in 2017. A big reason why is because of a young up and coming rotation. Let us take a look back and see if we can find the same level of optimism.

TYLER ANDERSON: 2016 GRADE B+ (fWAR 2.5)

As one of the great surprises, Tyler Anderson emerged as the most consistent starter for the Colorado Rockies in 2016. As a former first-round draft pick, one would like to think that success for Anderson was a full gone conclusion.  To the contrary, Anderson battled a litany of injuries that threatened to hinder his professional career. In his four professional seasons, Anderson has yet to pitch over 125 innings in any single year. One particularly talented and humble writer talked about how 2016 would be a make or break year for Anderson his Rockies future.

In 2016, Anderson started 19 games finishing with a 5-6 record. While the win-loss margin isn’t super impressive, Anderson led the rotation with 3.54 ERA while setting a Colorado Rockies single-season record for striking out 3.53 batters for every walk. Not known for overwhelming velocity, Anderson relies on finesse to get hitters out. Armed with unique polish and an intense competitiveness, Anderson is a pitching coaches’ dream.  Anderson studies hitters and executes an effective game plan very time he takes the hill. In addition to all that, once faced with traffic Anderson rarely gets rattled. Tyler led the rotation in “left on base percentage” (LOB%), stranding 75.1% of base runners.

JORGE DE LA ROSA: 2016 GRADE C- (fWAR 0.03)

Jorge De La Rosa’s Colorado Rockies swan song has come to a close. When it was all said and done, Jorge deserved a better tune. In 2016, Jorge posted the highest ERA of his nine-year Rockies career at 5.51. As the result of a horrific start to the season, Jorge was banished to the bullpen by late May with an ERA of 10.52. The exile of De La Rosa didn’t last, however. A litany of injuries forced the Rockies to return Jorge to the rotation. The veteran would not disappoint. In his next 15 starts, JDLR would go 6-3 with a 3.46 ERA before faltering again over his last three starts of the season.

All in all, the franchise’s all-time leader in wins and strikeouts deserved a better send off than a what a mediocre 2016 provided. Decreased velocity and inconsistent control were the major pitfalls to Jorge’s season. For a guy that has lit up the radar gun at 97 MPH at points in his career, Jorge could get away with missing his spots. In 2016, averaging just 90 MPH with his best fastball, perhaps Jorge was trying to get a little too fine at times.

Currently, Jorge is a free agent and doesn’t appear to ever be in purple pinstripes again. Despite that, Colorado Rockies fans can reminisce and cheer of JDLR as he will represent Mexico in the World Baseball Classic.

JON GRAY: 2016 GRADE A- (fWAR 3.7)

A 10-10 record does not scream “ace pitcher.” Looking past the superficial, you can see the ace in the making in Jon Gray. Notably, Gray set the franchise single-season record for strikeouts per 9 with a 9.91 clip. Speaking about his strikeout ability, Gray struck out 10 or more batters in six of his 29 starts. More impressively, four of those games came in games that Gray pitch six innings or less. As proof that baseball is weird, on Sept. 26, Gray only last 4.0 innings. In total that is only 12 outs recorded. Why does this matter? Ten out of those 12 outs came via strikeout. Clearly, Gray is an exceptional talent.

According to ESPN, Jon Gray’s 9/17 performance against rival San Deigo registers as the fourth best pitching performance of the 2016 season. In a complete game shutout, Gray masterfully struck out a franchise-record 16 batters while only allowing four base runners. By comparison, Gray’s second best outing was a seven-inning scoreless outing against San Francisco where he allowed one hit and struck out five. As one last note of interest, Gray’s ERA was lower at Coors Field than it was on the road.

Now entering his age 25 season, Gray will be expected to shoulder the Colorado Rockies rotation in 2017. After all, the Rockies have playoff hopes for 2017, especially now that their ace has arrived.

TYLER CHATWOOD: 2016 GRADE B- (fWAR 2.1)

Tyler Chatwood embodied the classic tale of “The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.” Well, its baseball equivalent anyway. As an illustration, Chatwood was the best pitcher on the planet when he was away from Coors field. In 13 games started, Chatwood collected eight wins and posted a league-high 1.69 ERA. Tyler’s success on the road was namely due to the fact that opponents hit just .189 against. Pitching in front of the home crowd was a complete 180.

In 14 games started at Coors, Chatwood put up a pedestrian 4-8 record with an ERA of 6.12. In brief, those numbers just aren’t going to cut it. Despite an eye-popping ERA at home, Chatwood won a career-high 12 games and posted a 3.87 ERA.

In the end, it’s going to be hard for Chatty to improve on his impressive road performances, a few things will need to happen if Denver hopes to host a postseason game for the first time since 2009. Firstly, he’ll have to provide more than just four quality starts at home. Specifically, Tyler will need to improve his command. In total opponents hit .303 against him at Coors. It appears walk were not an issue, but rather he caught too much of the plate.

Seeing that the Rockies intend to compete in 2017, Tyler Chatwood is going to be a big factor if Rocktober is to be a reality. The lineup is playoff ready at the current moment, but staff development is going to be instrumental. The exciting part of all of this is that all at the age of 27, Chatwood, Anderson, and Bettis are just now entering the prime of their careers.

EDDIE BUTLER, JEFF HOFFMAN, JORDAN LYLES, GERMAN MARQUEZ: 2016 GRADE D+ (COMBINE fWAR 0.0)

Colorado Rockies

The spot starters and September call-ups were asked to start 23 games for the Rockies in 2016. Under those circumstances, it’s easy to tell why they weren’t in the rotation. Once considered a top prospect in all of baseball, Eddie Butler went 2-5 on the year with a horrid 7.17 ERA. Butler has since been shipped out of town. It unfortunate, but not all good prospects pan out. The good news is that another team saw enough potential to try and “fix” Eddie. Here’s to hoping a change of scenery brings him more success.

In that same vain, Jordan Lyles has struggled as a Rockie as well. Lyles days as a starter appear to be behind him as he is now competing for the long man spot out of the pen as we head into Spring Training. While his ERA isn’t outstanding (5.83), Lyles very rarely gives up the long ball. For this reason, Jordan could be a valuable innings eater in one-sided games.

That brings us to Jeff Hoffman and German Marquez. Marquez is a prospect that seemingly came out of nowhere to play across three different levels in 2016. As for Hoffman, he is a Rockies top prospect. Both guys flashed some success in 2016, albeit with some major growing pains.

Next: Analyzing and Grading the 2016 Catchers

As 2017 is around the corner, Marquez and Hoffman will battle it out in spring to be the team’s fifth starter. Due to a talent gap, expect Hoffman to come out on top of that position battle.