Colorado Rockies: 40-Man Roster Countdown: 10-6

Our countdown of the Colorado Rockies 40-man roster is nearing a conclusion, as we cover half of the remaining 10 players today. As a reminder, we compiled this list by asking each of our six contributors to Rox Pile to rank each member of Colorado’s 40-man roster from 1-40. To reach our final standings, we combined the points to see who fit where. The more points, the lower the ranking.

Number 10

Tyler Anderson: Starting Pitcher Points: 60 Highest Rank: 7 Lowest: 15

The most meaningful thing that happened to the Rockies in 2016 was the emergence of a flock of young, talented ballplayers. But of all the Colorado rookies that made their big league debuts last season, the sudden emergence of Tyler Anderson might have been the most surprising.

Anderson was a first round pick out of the University of Oregon back in the 2011 MLB Draft. He lived up to that pressure, rising quickly through the minor leagues before suffering a stress fracture in his pitching elbow

The damage from that injury shut Anderson down not only for the rest of 2014, but the entirety of the 2015 season as well. After missing nearly a year and a half with an elbow injury, some doubted that Anderson would ever reach the big leagues at all.

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When MLB.com released their prospect rankings for the Colorado system at the end of the 2015 season, Anderson didn’t even earn a spot on the 30-man list.

But things change quickly in baseball. As Anderson worked his way back in the minor leagues, Jorge De La Rosa and the Rockies bullpen struggled in the majors. On June 11th, just a little over a month after Anderson’s season debut in Modesto, he was called up to the big leagues and plugged into the starting rotation.

The Rockies were likely hoping that Anderson would just be passable enough to get through a few starts while they figured things out in the bullpen. Instead, he instantly became one of the better pitchers in the rotation, posting a 5-6 record with a 3.54 ERA over 19 starts.

Anderson’s best weapon is his sinker, which he used to generate ground balls on 50.9% of all contact against him last season (the league average was 44.7%). Coors Field doesn’t make much of a difference if the ball is consistently on the ground, and with one of the game’s best defensive infields behind him, grounders led to success for Anderson last season.

Anderson’s injury history makes it a bit harder to fully trust him, but a full season with the kind of results he produced in 2016 would firmly establish Anderson as a mainstay in the Rockies starting rotation.

Number 8

David Dahl: Outfielder Points: 53 Highest Rank: 5 Lowest Rank: 16

The biggest story about a Rockies rookie last season was Trevor Story’s assault on the record books (more on that later). And while that deserved plenty of attention, it caused some fans to overlook the start of a career for a player that is essentially a younger, slightly more athletic version of Carlos Gonzalez.

This emergence didn’t come out of nowhere. Dahl was the 10th overall pick of the 2012 MLB draft, and since that time he’s been considered one of game’s most talented young outfielders. Both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus had Dahl among the top 25 prospects in all of baseball prior to the 2015 season.

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Dahl mashed his way through the minor leagues and made his MLB debut in late July. Dahl was unfazed, as he racked up a stellar .315/.359/.500 line in 222 at-bats. Dahl also showed off his power potential more frequently, bashing a career-best 25 home runs across three levels in 2016. If all Dahl did was hit, he’d still be an intriguing young player.

But what makes Dahl really special is that he offers premium offensive talent while also providing excellent defense in the outfield. Dahl mostly played left field with the Rockies last season, but many believe he may already be a better defender in center than Charlie Blackmon. Dahl has solidly above-average wheels, gets great jumps on the ball, and even possesses a strong, accurate throwing arm.

Every player has things he can work on though, and Dahl is no exception. Like most supremely talented young hitters, Dahl looks to swing early and often in his at-bats. There are notable exceptions to this rule, but if Dahl wants to keep his average in the big leagues above .300, he’ll likely need to improve his plate discipline.

That being said, Dahl looked more patient than ever at the plate last season. Besides, he still hasn’t even turned 23, so it’s reasonable that as he matures, so will his game. If Dahl is the worst player in the Rockies starting outfield (and our rankings say that he is), that’s a terrifying prospect for the rest of the league when they face Colorado.

Number 7

Ian Desmond: First Baseman/Outfielder Points: 41 Highest Rank: 4 Lowest Rank: 9

This off-season, the Rockies signed Desmond to a 5-year, $70M contract and announced that he would be the team’s primary first baseman in 2017. And the baseball community promptly lost their minds.

The hot takes came flying in fast and furious. FanGraphs’ Nicolas Stelleni recapped the signing in an article titled “Let’s Get Weird: Ian Desmond Is A Rockie“, where he wrote the following,

“This move is the equivalent of the Denver Broncos signing Lionel Messi. It’s unexpected. It’s bonkers. It’s newly legal in Colorado, and Jeff Bridich is into it.”

And so it went across the internet. Sporting News was even more direct, publishing an article titled “Ian Desmond Signing Highlights Ineptitude of Rockies Management“. Few moves this off-season received more scrutiny or out-right skepticism.

To be fair, there are certainly concerns surrounding the deal. Desmond has been a wildly inconsistent player throughout his career. Forget about his brutal 2015 season for a second; even in his bounce-back season last year, Desmond was like two different players.

Desmond 1st Half Slash Line: .322/.375/.524

Desmond 2nd Half Slash Line: .237/.283/.347

Outside of Desmond’s hot-or-cold nature at the plate, there’s also a lot of uncertainty surrounding his place defensively. The Rockies have said he’ll primarily play first base in 2017, and that makes sense in theory; Desmond was a shortstop before moving to the outfield, and first base is an easier position to play than short.

But that theory buries a crucial point: Desmond didn’t just randomly move to the outfield, he stopped playing shortstop because he wasn’t good there. He averaged roughly 24 errors per season in his six full seasons playing the position in the big leagues.

It’s also an oversimplification to suggest that anyone who can play shortstop will be a capable first baseman. First base, while one of the simpler positions on the field, still requires a unique set of skills, most importantly clean footwork and the ability to scoop throws off a short hop. Desmond is a good athlete, so he can likely learn and improve upon those skills quickly, but it’s going to take time.

Desmond also will likely struggle to hit like a prototypical first baseman. 20 home runs and a .280 batting average is a good season for a shortstop or a center fielder, but it’s solidly below average for a first baseman.

If this all sounds very negative, well, there’s a lot of potential for this deal to go wrong. For the Rockies to maximize their return on Desmond’s contract, they’ll likely have to utilize his versatility and deploy him all over the field as a “super utility” type, similar to the role Ben Zobrist has made trendy in recent years.

No one can look at the Desmond signing and accuse the Rockies of not being serious about competing in 2017. But spending, in of itself, does not make a team a winner; smart spending does.

Does the Desmond contract fit into that mold? It’s too early to tell, but to be perfectly honest, I’d be lying if I said I was particularly optimistic.

Number 6

Trevor Story: Shortstop Points: 39 Highest Rank: 3 Lowest Rank: 13

It didn’t take long for Story to become the talk of baseball last season. In his second career MLB at-bat, he did this to Zack Greinke.

It was a sign of things to come, as Story continued blasting home runs at a record-setting pace. He became the first player in MLB history to hit four homers in his first three games, then the first rookie ever to hit 10 home runs in April. When Story’s season was cut short by a thumb injury in late July, he had already hit 27 bombs and driven in 72 runs.

Power will likely always be his best tool, but Story is more than just a slugger. By nearly any measure, he’s at least a capable shortstop, and advanced defensive statistics indicated that his range was among the best in the league last year. The Story-Arenado combo on the left side of the infield is one of the strongest defensive pairings in baseball, outside of their incredible work with the bat.

Story has one very clear weakness as a player: strikeouts. 31.3% of his at-bats ended with a K, the 5th-highest rate among all hitters with at least 400 plate appearances in 2016. This isn’t necessarily something Story has to fix. There are plenty of power hitters who strike out frequently and are still successful in the major leagues. But if Story wants to improve upon his .272 batting average from last year, he’s almost certainly going to have to put the ball in play more often.

Even if Story continues to swing and miss more often than he’d like, it’s hard to knock him too much. He was given a near-impossible task last year: replacing one of the most talented, popular players in franchise history at shortstop. He proved himself, both to the fans and to the rest of baseball, as a worthy heir to Troy Tulowitzki’s former spot, and he did it in less than a week.

Next: Who Ranks 11-15 On Our List? Find Out Here.

I could continue to gush about Story, or list all the franchise and league records he broke or threatened in 2016. But nothing I write could be as pretty as Story’s 27th and final home run last season, a 456-foot rocket to left-center field. Enjoy.