We asked in a recent article if the 2017 Colorado Rockies were really built as a team to “win now.” You can read the article here. According to season projections released recently from FanGraphs, it may not be.
In its projections for the 2017 season, FanGraphs is showing that the Colorado Rockies will not only not quality for the postseason, but they will also finish in a less desirable position within the division than they did in 2016.
FanGraphs is projecting that the Rockies will finish the 2017 season with a 78-84 mark. While that would be a three-game improvement over last season’s 75-87 record, it would be nowhere good enough to make the postseason.
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Here’s how FanGraphs is projecting the 2017 season in the National League West…
Los Angeles 95-67
San Francisco 88-74
San Diego 66-96
Yes, the Rockies are predicted to finish tied for third with the Diamondbacks. Part of the reason is that Arizona is forecast to lose a full run off the number of runs allowed per game from last season (5.49 to 4.49) while Colorado would drop from just 5.31 to 4.99.
Incidentally, that 4.99 mark would still be third-worst in all of baseball, coming in behind the Milwaukee Brewers (5.09) and Minnesota Twins (5.01).
Offensively, Colorado’s runs per game are predicted to drop from 5.22 to 4.81. That number would still be among Major League Baseball’s most lethal offenses, trailing the Boston Red Sox (4.97), Houston Astros (4.90) and Texas Rangers (4.82). That number would also make Colorado’s offense the most potent in the National League.
Record-wise, Colorado’s 78 wins would only eclipse National League foes Atlanta (75), Philadelphia (72), Cincinnati (68), Milwaukee (67) and San Diego (66).
The Rockies signed Ian Desmond to fill the void at first base and Mike Dunn to bolster the bullpen, but those have been the two biggest moves the team has made in the offseason. Has it been enough? These projections say no.
In a time when Colorado seems to be poised to have its most complete team in years, it may, according to FanGraphs, not be enough to make the postseason. That would be a disappointing end to a lot of excitement that has continued to evolve this offseason.
What do you think? Are the FanGraphs projections way off? Let us know in the comments below.