3 free agents the Rockies should target to fill in the rotation

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The Rockies have had a pretty quiet offseason so far. They haven't really made many moves, but for a team rebuilding, the offseason is generally pretty mute. The Rockies have said that they will look to add to the rotation, as injuries and a series of one-year deals have left them with a couple of rotation spots. Three of the spots in the rotation are penciled in for Kyle Freeland, Cal Quantrill and Austin Gomber. They have a few other options that will most certainly get some starts, with Ryan Feltner, Peter Lambert, Noah Davis and recent Rule 5 draftee Anthony Molina all competing for innings.

Even with those options, the Rockies are going to need to add some stability. With injuries to German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela that will sideline them for most, if not all, of the 2024 season, the Rockies could stand to add a veteran starting pitcher to eat some innings. As the Rockies saw last year, injuries can dismantle a rotation and make it extremely hard for manager Bud Black to sort of piece together the starting pitching (though the introduction of a new performance lab could help).

With that being said, I think the following three starting pitchers would fit well in Colorado, and could eat some innings for a team lacking experience and stability.

Mike Clevinger

Clevinger is coming off a solid 2023 season, one that saw him compile a 2.2 fWAR. He will most likely be the most expensive arm on my list, but I think it is within reason for the Rockies to consider adding an arm like Clevinger.

The righty dealt with injuries in 2020 and 2021, but was able to bounce back in 2022, throwing 114 innings with a 4.33 ERA with the Padres. Clevinger built on that rebound season by throwing 131.1 innings with a 3.77 ERA for a White Sox team that was an absolute mess. Clevinger improved on both his walk and strikeout rates, showing that a return to his 2018 and 2019 seasons could be on the horizon. Those were back-to-back 4+ win campaigns, according to fWAR.

Clevinger would be the most expensive pitcher on this list, but he has the most upside, as a guy that has posted two 4+ fWAR seasons, as well as four total seasons of 2+ wins by FanGraphs' standards. Clevinger could really help Kyle Freeland anchor the rotation and pave the way for some of the younger arms to develop, while providing some really valuable innings. Spotrac has his estimated market value at four years and just under $55 million, giving him an AAV of $13.6 million. I think this AAV is really close, but I am not sure that you have to commit the fourth year to him. Considering 30-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez just got a 4-year deal, I could see a two- or three-year deal with a similar AAV getting it done.

Sean Manaea

Manaea is a name that Rockies fans should be familiar with, as he spent the last two seasons in the NL West. In 2022, he pitched in San Diego, and he toiled last year with the San Francisco Giants. Where Clevinger might be the best and most expensive, I think Manaea is the most intriguing arm that the Rockies could potentially add via free agency.

Manaea was a former first-round pick and had some really impressive seasons with the Oakland Athletics, averaging just under 2 fWAR per season during his time with the A's. He struggled in 2022 with the Padres, making 28 starts but being worth just one win according to FanGraphs. His ERA was just short of 5.00, and his home run rate skyrocketed. In 2023, he was expecting to get some starts for the Giants but found himself in the bullpen for most of the year. That said, he still made 10 starts and threw 117 innings. He was worth 1.1 wins and was able to cut the home run rate down.

I think Manaea could be a really interesting arm to add to the Rockies rotation, and Manaea might like the fit as well. Manaea has spent his entire career on the west coast and could get a chance to start and be the No. 2 or No. 3 in a rotation really lacking proven arms. He combined to throw over 337 innings between 2021 and 2022, showing that he has the ability to really eat some innings this year. Spotrac estimates he could get a four-year deal worth $48 million, an AAV of $11.9M. This might be what it takes for the Rockies to keep Manaea on the west coast, but the risk could prove to be very valuable.

Zach Davies

Another familiar name for Rockies fans, Zach Davies, could fit like a glove. Davies has spent three of the last four years in the NL West, with the last two coming in Arizona. He has been in innings-eater and one that has pitched to contact, limited walks, and has run a high ground ball rate. This combination could make him a really good fit for the Rockies and Coors Field.

In 2023, Davies only threw 82.1 innings over 18 starts, mainly because of his 7.00 ERA. No, that is not a typo. Davies had an ERA of 7.00. Before you scoff and dismiss Davies, though, let's look at some of the peripheral numbers, which might change your mind. Davies has a career 4.36 ERA, showing an ability to be a solid back of the rotation arm; 2023 seems like an outlier in that aspect. In 2023, he posted the second-best strikeout rate of his career, with the second-lowest home run rate attached. He was also worth .8 wins according to fWAR in only 18 starts, putting him on pace for 1.5-2.0 wins in a full 32-start season.

Coming off the worst season of his career, Davies' market is going to be limited. The Rockies could give him a chance to prove himself and hit the market again next offseason. Spotrac estimates him at one year and $6.5 million, but there is no way that Davies can get that. I think there is a chance Davies is a non-roster invitee, but if you want to make sure you get him, maybe give him a million dollars and a spot on the 40-man to compete in the spring.

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Mike Clevinger

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