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2 Winners and 2 Losers from the first month of Rockies baseball
Let's recap the first month of Rockies baseball
On the surface the 2024 season has largely been disappointing. Many fans had tempered their expectations coming into this year, but we knew we could count on a few offensive players and maybe some exciting defense both in the infield as well as in the outfield (with upwards of five potential Gold Glove level winners), but even that has been relatively mute. The Rockies have been pretty bad in almost every facet of the game, and it seems like fans are in for another long season.
We have said numerous times that the success of this season won't be dependent upon wins and losses, but rather the development and growth the prospects as well as some of the young, major-league talent we already get to see.
Unfortunately, the Rockies have seen a number of injuries to very important players that have seemingly opened the door for some of the youngsters to take advantage of. This could be a sort of blessing in disguise as it gives Bud Black and Bill Schmidt a good look at what they might have heading into the 2024 and 2025 seasons and beyond.
In a month that has been an emotional roller coaster with blow outs like the one to start the year against the Diamondbacks, as well as the most recent five-run comeback against the Padres, fueled by a six-run inning we take a look at three winners and two losers from this month of baseball.
Winner: Brenton Doyle is better than anyone expected this year
One of the most talked about breakout candidates for the Rockies in the 2024 season was Brenton Doyle. Some significant swing changes at the end of last year led to a lot of results offensively and has him looking like one of the better all-around centerfielders in baseball.
Those swing changes, I just referenced, led Doyle to hitting .261 with a .477 slugging percentage in the month of September last year. He looked very comfortable at the plate and looked to carry things over into 2024, and what we got, was way more than that month of September.
Looking at what Doyle has done this year, and it is not at all an exaggeration to say he has performed as one of the best centerfielders in the game so far; the stats back it up!
Doyle's defense isn't the only aspect carrying the centerfielders value; the 25-year-old has put up .8 fWAR (in just 27 games played (that's a 4.8 fWAR season over 162 games). That ties him with Aaron Judge and well as puts him ahead of guys like Julio Rodriguez, Cody Bellinger, Corbin Carroll, and Michael Harris II, that is super impressive. Doyle also ranks tied for fifth (with Michael Harris II) in wRC+ with a 129. This puts him in the All-Star game and if he continues, it puts him in the MVP conversation.
Perhaps the most impressive part of Doyle's offensive growth this year is the improvement we have seen on his ability to limit strikeouts, while maximizing power output. Now, Doyle won't ever be a 30-home run type hitter, but he will hit a lot of extra base hits, especially with his speed. He currently has a slugging percentage of .505 which puts him third in all of baseball. He has also cut his strikeout rate down to 29.2% which is a very respectable rate considering everything else he is doing. Doyle is truly playing like the best player the Rockies have and could be looking at a Nolan Jones type of breakout season.
Loser: The Rockies Health
The season is a long and torturing season for these players. 162 games is a lot to play in, especially when you factor in the limited full days off. A lot of the younger guys may be fine to play a whole year, but as your body gets older, this season just beats you up. Not to mention, the emphasis on velocity has ended a lot of pitchers' seasons with some serious arm injuries.
We all know the injuries that have plagued Kris Bryant; well, it continues again this year. Kris Bryant hit the injured list with a back injury and, though surgery hasn't been talked about, it doesn't seem like his return will be very soon. He has yet to resume baseball activities and seems like the Rockies should play this conservative and let him recover fully; it's not like they are making a push for the postseason and need his presence in the lineup.
Speaking of pitchers facing serious arm injuries, the Rockies lost staff ace, Kyle Freeland to a left elbow injury. The team seems pretty hush hush about this, which seems scary. That and his interview trashing the pitch clock, make it seem like Freeland knows this is a pretty serious injury. There is no timetable for this injury, and hopefully it's not another pitcher needing Tommy John, but the Rockies have been hampered with injuries to some of their star players.
One of those star players, will head to the injured list with a back injury. Rockies star, Nolan Jones, seemed like he wasn't himself to start this year, and it may have been because of a back injury that has landed him on the shelf with Kris Bryant. Jones's strikeout rate is up, and pretty much every offensive metric is down, including just one home run. Hopefully this is a short-term injury, but the Rockies should play it even more conservative with the young star.
The Rockies have been decimated by injuries to start this year; three of their stars have landed on the injured list with unknown timelines. Not to mention, these three injuries have all come in about a two week span, surprising a lot of fans and placing a lot of pressure on some of their younger, talented players.
Winner: The Ryan McMahon comeback season
The fan favorite that was locked down long term has been one of the best hitters in the game. McMahon was extended to a six-year deal, through the 2027 season, that is worth $70 million. McMahon was coming off an impressive 2021 season with 20 home runs and the Rockies rewarded him with a nice extension. After another solid 2022, McMahon's 2023 season was disappointing that saw him put up just a 1.6 fWAR season and his strikeout rate jump nearly 5%.
He took this personally and has been one of the most impressive hitters this season with a wRC+ that went from 88 in 2023 to 126 so far in 2024. His batting average has jumped 68 points, the walk rate has increase 1.5% and the strikeout rate is back down below his career average (27.9% in 2024). McMahon is also on pace for another 20 home runs season, and could approach a season high in RBI, especially with the way the top of the lineup (Tovar and Doyle) has been able to get on base.
When comparing Mac to the rest of the third baseman in all of baseball, his numbers are very impressive. McMahon ranks sixth in wRC+, eighth in fWAR, and third in slugging percentage. He also has the second highest walk rate among qualified third baseman, showing how much his approach at the plate has changed. Mac has been really impressive and has come through in the clutch many times for this team. We could be seeing the best season yet from the fan favorite, on his way to one of the better comeback seasons in baseball.
Loser: Surprise surprise...the starting pitching has been terrible
We all know the Rockies can't develop or retain pitching; it's been the same message for going on 30+ years...well, the story continues this year. After the 2023 season saw the Rockies starting pitching staff put up an abysmal 5.91 ERA, a 6.25 K/9, 1.81 HR/9 (all by far the worst in the major leagues), things haven't changed this year.
Again, the Rockies pitching staff ranks last in ERA (6.67...ugh, ouch), last in K/9 (6.47 K/9), and the second fewest innings pitched by a starting pitcher. The Rockies starting pitching staff has combined for just .1 fWAR, which is rather surprising to be honest. We knew they would struggle, but this starting staff is on pace for the worst pitching performance in Major League history, and things won't get easier with the loss of Kyle Freeland; we aren't sure how long he will be out, but his interview didn't sound good.
This pitching staff is in need of a serious overhaul, hopefully that changes after seeing some of the top pitching prospects dominate early on. Guys like Chase Dollander, Sean Sullivan and Carson Palmquist look like a great group to build around, but the Rockies can't settle. They need to be aggressive in acquiring pitching talent, whether that's via trade, free agency or the MLB draft; there should be no heavier emphasis than on acquiring and developing elite pitching talent.
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