2 players the Rockies will regret not acquiring this offseason, 1 they won't
With the MLB offseason yet to really heat up, we take an early look at 2 pitchers the Rockies may regret not adding to their staff, and 1 that they wisely passed up on.
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The Rockies are in a different situation than a lot of teams this offseason. With the playoff format giving an opportunity to more teams than ever, there are a lot of teams that are being more aggressive in hopes of capturing a Wild Card spot.
The Rockies are in a situation where it's unlikely they will be in contention for one of those Wild Card spots, at least for a few years. That doesn't mean that they won't be active in free agency, however, as they have a few pretty glaring holes, none more plain than in the pitching staff as a whole. The Rockies have some minor leaguers that are getting close to making their debuts, but with injuries last year, the Rockies will still need to add some consistency to their pitching staff, regardless of the arrival of enticing rookies.
With the Rockies being one of eight teams that have not spent a single dollar this offseason, many fans might be getting frustrated. The Rockies are an exciting team with a lot of young talent and a lot of fans want to see some experience infused into that. Colorado may have missed out on a couple of arms that could have proven valuable to this young team, while they will look back and be glad they avoided another pitcher who changed teams this offseason.
The Rockies may regret not acquiring these 2 pitchers
Will Smith - Signed one-year, $5 million with the Kansas City Royals
Will Smith has been with the World Series Champion the last three years. What more reason do you need to sign him? It's a guaranteed World Series ring. In all reality, that streak will most certainly end this year, as Smith signed with the rebuilding Kansas City Royals (or will the team that acquires him at the deadline win it all?).
Smith has been a really solid middle reliever over his career, with a 3.67 career ERA and a very impressive 10.6 strikeout rate per nine innings. Smith regressed a little bit in 2023, pitching in the hitter-friendly confines of Globe Life Stadium. His ERA jumped to 4.40, while his strikeout rate dipped to 8.6 K/9. Impressively, he put up one of the lowest HR/9 rates of his career, at just .8 HR/9, showing an ability to limit home runs in hitter-friendly parks. He did throw 57.1 innings in 2023. right on par with his career average.
“He's one of those guys that you want on your team good or bad because he's going to help.”
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 12, 2023
The #MLBTonight crew discusses Will Smith signing with the Royals and the type of leadership he will bring. pic.twitter.com/VEghVW3J08
Smith would've been a valuable bullpen arm for the Rockies, a team that used 26 different relievers in 2023, proving that they could use some stability back there. Smith's contract wasn't exactly a prohibitive one, either, and the Rockies could've used the same approach that they did with Brad Hand last year. Sign a guy to a one-year deal, let him prove he is going to be a valuable reliever and flip him to a contender at the deadline for prospects. This could be a move that the Rockies come to regret when they get into the dog days of summer and are thin in their bullpen (and have nothing to dangle at the deadline).
Marco Gonzales - Traded to Pittsburgh Pirates from ATL
We have touched on it before, but the Rockies' lack of pitching really hurt them in 2023. As things currently stand, their No. 4 and No. 5 spots are pretty big question marks. They will definitely need to add someone to the back of the rotation that can eat some innings to help a young and inexperienced staff get through the full year. This is where I think Marco Gonzales would have been a perfect fit.
Gonzales is a local kid, having grown up in Fort Collins, CO. He was actually drafted by the Rockies in 2010. Instead of signing, he decided to go to college, where he played in Spokane, WA at Gonzaga University. After he was traded to the Mariners in 2017, he became an anchor for a rebuilding team that needed leadership. He spent the next seven seasons there and led a lot of really good pitching staffs, aiding in the growth of a lot of their young pitchers like George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Matt Brash.
From 2018 to 2022, minus the COVID-shortened year, Gonzales averaged just over 174 innings pitched per year, something the Rockies would love! He wasn't a front of the rotation pitcher, but he could eat innings, work deep into the game and limit damage. These are all things that the Rockies could desperately use.
The Pirates are reportedly acquiring LHP Marco Gonzales and cash from the Braves for a player to be named later, per @Feinsand. pic.twitter.com/c8D71ehsO3
— MLB (@MLB) December 6, 2023
The price to acquire Gonzales wasn't expensive either, considering that the Mariners sent him and Evan White, along with young outfielder Jarred Kelenic, to the Braves in nothing more than a salary dump. Gonzales was then sent to the Pirates along with cash for a player to be named later. The lefty was due to make $12 million in 2024, and I think that the Braves are going to have to pay a decent chunk of that down for the Pirates to take on that contract. This was a player the Rockies should have been very active in trying to acquire. He could have been a very valuable piece to a rebuilding rotation.
The Rockies will be glad they didn't pay Jack Flaherty $14 million
Once upon a time, Jack Flaherty was a really good pitcher and looked to become the next great Cardinals ace. At the age of 23, he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young Voting, putting up a 5.8 bWAR. Over the next three years, he dealt with a number of injuries, combining to throw just 154 innings over that time.
In his final year of arbitration, he was able to bounce back a little bit. He was able to work up to 144 innings over 27 starts, which is impressive considering the injury history. He was pretty solid in the first half of the season with the Cardinals, with a 4.43 ERA over 20 starts, but things unraveled after he was traded to the Orioles. Over seven starts and nine appearances, he threw just 34 innings with a 6.75 ERA. At this point in his career, Flaherty is probably nothing more than a No. 4 or No. 5 starter with mid-rotation upside. He is still only 28 years old, but for a starter with a significant injury history and recent struggles, a $14 million contract is a pretty rich deal (and Coors Field is a hellish place for anyone to "figure it out").
It only takes a brief search to find a few comps from this offseason to show you that $14 million for Flaherty is a massive overpay -- and one that the Rockies should be glad they avoided. The first comparison is Martin Pérez, who signed with the Pirates on a one-year, $8 million deal. Since Pérez became a full-time starter in 2016, he has averaged 155 innings per year and has about the same floor as Flaherty.
The second comparison is Kyle Gibson, who signed a one-year deal worth $12 million with the Cardinals. Gibson has been a solid back of the rotation starter and has consistently been an innings-eater. Over his 11-year career, he has averaged 155 innings per year. He has a career 4.54 ERA, but his value comes from the dependability he possesses. Gibson for $12 million is a lot better deal than Flaherty for $14 million. For the kind of money Flaherty got, the Rockies would be better off taking a chance on another arm, perhaps one with fewer injury concerns.