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Colorado Rockies: The three biggest lessons to learn from the 2020 season

By Noah Yingling |
LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 06: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies hits a base hit to score Raimel Tapia #15 of the Colorado Rockies from third base during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on September 6, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 06: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies hits a base hit to score Raimel Tapia #15 of the Colorado Rockies from third base during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on September 6, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
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DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 15: Rockies owner/chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dick Monfort stands in the stands and looks on before a game between the Colorado Rockies and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field on September 15, 2014 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 15: Rockies owner/chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dick Monfort stands in the stands and looks on before a game between the Colorado Rockies and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field on September 15, 2014 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

The Colorado Rockies season is over after they finished the season going 15-31 in their last 46 games of the 60-game campaign, leaving them looking on the outside of the playoff picture once again.

The Colorado Rockies missed the playoffs for the second straight season after going 26-34 in the shortened 2020 season. Even with it being a shortened season, the Rockies are at a crossroads on what to do for 2020.

Even though 102 less games were played than the original schedule had, there are plenty of things that the Rockies should heed when they evaluate their 2020 season in the coming days and weeks and look to improve for 2021.

They are not a 94-win team as they are currently constructed … and it’s not even close

Fans got a bit of a laugh when Rockies owner Dick Monfort said in February that he thought the Colorado Rockies were a 94-win team.

“I had an analytical staff go through and interpolate those numbers,” Monfort said. “And so in 2020, we’ll win 94 games and lose 68. “So it’s that easy. All we’ve got to do is start praying and it will happen. Baseball’s a crazy game.”

Granted, in 2020, the Rockies didn’t even play 94 games due to the pandemic but Monfort’s comments were widely panned.

In fact, we said back when he made the comments that the Rockies “are no better than a third-place team in the weakest division in the National League…and even that is up for debate.” We ended up getting one of the teams ahead of the Rockies wrong (we predicted that the Diamondbacks would be ahead of them and they would be about even with San Diego) but the overall point was correct: the Rockies are no better than a third-place team as they are currently constructed.

The Rockies went 71-91 in 2019, did very little in the offseason heading into this season (partially, because they didn’t have the money to because they had money allocated to players that were, essentially, dead weight), and ended with a record of 26-34. By winning percentage for a full 162-game season, that’s equivalent to a 70-92 record, one game worse than 2019.

Unfortunately, there have been a lot of people that have seen this coming. The stats said that it was coming … and the Rockies have been at a crossroads longer than some people would like to believe.

Even when they made the playoffs in 2017 and 2018, the numbers suggested that the Rockies were a team that had some good luck that helped them get into the playoffs.

For example, by run differential in 2018, the Rockies should have been an 85-win team, not a 91-win team. When they made the playoffs in 2017, they were still a third-place team.

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 31: Ryan McMahon #24 of the Colorado Rockies walks off the field after striking out during the seventh inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on August 31, 2020 in Denver, Colorado. The Padres defeated the Rockies 6-0. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – AUGUST 31: Ryan McMahon #24 of the Colorado Rockies walks off the field after striking out during the seventh inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on August 31, 2020 in Denver, Colorado. The Padres defeated the Rockies 6-0. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) /

The Rockies hitting approach did not work…at all

There were fewer opportunities to hear it with the shortened season but do you remember any media member (writer or broadcaster, local or national) say “you just know they’re going to hit” because they’re the Rockies and they play at Coors Field? I didn’t think so.

And that’s because, after their 11-3 start, the Rockies had the worst offense in the National League and the second-worst in baseball. That’s worse than the Pittsburgh Pirates in that same span. The Pirates went 19-41 in the entire season, which is equivalent to a 111-loss team in a regular year.

Just look at the Rockies offensive numbers on Statcast. There are 14 blue numbers (league qualifiers that were in the bottom 10 percent of a stat) and zero red numbers (league qualifiers that were in the top 10 percent of a stat).

Part of their offensive woes did come from injuries. Nolan Arenado was injured for much of the season (even though he tried to play through it) and David Dahl missed more than half of the season due to injury. But many players had bad years or they haven’t developed like the Rockies hoped. That list includes Ryan McMahon, Tony Wolters, and Daniel Murphy. Charlie Blackmon, after his torrid start, barely hit above the Mendoza line in the final seven weeks of the season.

A change in philosophy (namely more analytics) and a few new names in the Rockies lineup could give them the boost they need going into 2021.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 24: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies reacts to a strike out during the game against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on September 24, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 24: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies reacts to a strike out during the game against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on September 24, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images) /

The Rockies need some new faces on the team in 2021

The bottom line is that they need some new faces on the team. They have a lot of things that they need to have in 2021 to contend or if they decide to take a year (or a few years) to rebuild, they need to see some different faces on the team in 2021. They also need to build their secondary starting talent (they still really only have three or four players that are consistent offensively), their bullpen, and their depth.

Every team has injuries. Good teams have depth and can weather those injuries. Mediocre teams do not have depth and cannot weather those injuries.

Seeing new faces could mean that the Rockies make some small free-agent signings or make some small trades but the fact of the matter is that the Rockies likely won’t have much money to spend whatsoever … again.

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Sure, Daniel Murphy is going to be off the books (assuming he isn’t resigned and leaves with his $6 million buyout). Chris Iannetta and Mike Dunn’s buyouts along with Jake McGee, Wade Davis, and Bryan Shaw’s contracts will be off the books and Ian Desmond will make $7 million less in 2021 than he was originally going to make in 2020 (before the pandemic and pro-rated salaries).

But Trevor Story’s salary will more than double in 2021. Kyle Freeland, Jon Gray, Mychal Givens, David Dahl, Tony Wolters, and Carlos Estevez will eat up most of the rest of that money in arbitration. The Rockies, like all teams, didn’t make much money in 2020 due to having no attendance. And, right now, there are plenty of question marks about what attendance and the season in general will look like in 2021.

So they will likely be strapped for cash (or say that they are strapped for cash) and make some minor moves and, in the words of Dick Monfort, “start praying” and the Rockies will hope to be better.

A few weeks ago, when the Rockies released Wade Davis, general manager Jeff Bridich said that there aren’t “any huge lessons” to learn from in their signings of Davis, McGee, and Shaw but there should be: don’t give any huge contracts to players that are on the back nine of their career (aka 30 or older). Also, sign players to play positions they know and don’t try to fit a circle into a square peg.

Next. There's even more roster uncertainty heading into 2021. dark

For the Rockies to get multiple pieces to help them in the near future, they may have to trade Nolan Arenado and with his relationship with the front office and the chance of him opting out rising each day, the Rockies need to figure that out soon too. They wouldn’t have to figure that out if Bridich didn’t insist on Arenado having that opt-out clause in his contract but alas, it is there and it is only one season away.

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