Colorado Rockies: Should they trade for Justin Bour of Miami?

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MIAMI, FL – SEPTEMBER 29: Justin Bour #41 of the Miami Marlins hits a two RBI double in the seventh inning during a game against the Atlanta Braves at Marlins Park on September 29, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

We have discussed potential options for the Colorado Rockies to acquire as trade candidates and they have almost exclusively been position players. This has been because the Rockies, with the signing of Wade Davis, have one of the best, if not the best, bullpens in the National League. They seem to be content their starting pitching staff considering that they have so many options internally. However, one thing that they must improve upon for next season is their offense.

In 2017, the Rockies struggled a lot offensively. By OPS+, they had the fifth worst offense in all of baseball. This was, in part, because of their lack of power as they were tenth in the National League in home runs. Also, a big reason was that they were inconsistent.

With batting average each month, they had a 50 point spread from their worst month (.247 in April) and their best month (.297 in July). By on-base percentage, they had a 40 point spread from April (their worst month at .310), to their worst month (July at .350). In slugging percentage, they had a 77 point spread between their worst month (June at .413) and their best month (July at .490).

To address this, we think, as we have shown in a few different articles going all the way back to July of last year, that the Rockies and Marlins would be good trade partners. We have discussed people like Giancarlo Stanton in this article, before he was traded to the Yankees, Marcell Ozuna in this article before he was traded to the Cardinals, Christian Yelich in this article, JT Realmuto in this article, and some others in this article just before the July 31 trade deadline. However, one player we have not discussed is their first baseman.

Justin Bour is the Marlins first baseman and he would provide the Rockies with a tremendous help offensively. In 2017, he has 25 home runs and 83 RBI. However, this was only in 108 games. He also had 18 doubles, an offensive slashline of .289/.366/.536,k and an OPS+ of 139.

In the All-Star Game in Miami last season, even though he wasn’t chosen as a member of the National League All-Star team, he was chosen to be one of eight players to take part in the Home Run Derby. He was eliminated in the first round by eventual winner Aaron Judge.

He only played in 108 games because, shortly after the All-Star Game on July 24, Bour suffered from a strained right oblique that sidelined him until September 8. He also suffered from a left ankle contusion that placed him on the 10-day disabled list in early June.

In 2017, had a played in all of the 162 game scheduled, according to Baseball Reference, Bour would have hit 38 home runs and 125 RBI. For comparison, Nolan Arenado hit 37 home runs and 130 RBI for the Rockies in 2017.

In 2016, his second full MLB season, he also had ankle issues as he only played in 90 games as he suffered from a sprained right ankle that sidelined him from July 3 through September 5. He had 15 home runs and 51 RBI with a .264/.349/.475 offensive slashline and a 124 OPS+. For a full 162 game season, that would have been 28 home runs and 92 RBI.

In 129 games in 2015, he had 23 home runs, 73 RBI, a .262/.321/.479 slashline, and a 120 OPS+.

MIAMI, FL – SEPTEMBER 20: Justin Bour #41 of the Miami Marlins runs to first base after his hit against the New York Mets at Marlins Park on September 20, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Joe Skipper/Getty Images) /

Defense

Defensively, Bour is not a stellar defender but he is not a bad defender. According to Baseball Reference, since 2016, he has -2 Defensive Runs Saved (zero is league average, which is what he was at in 2016). In 2017, that would place him eighth among 13 National League first baseman who played more than 800 innings at first, according to Fangraphs.

In UZR, again according to Fangraphs, he ranks higher as his UZR (Ultimate Zone Ranking) in 2017 was 2.2 (league average is also zero). That would place him as fifth among the 13 National League qualifiers.

Baserunning

While Bour’s offense is above average and his defense is around league average, his baserunning is the worst part of his game. First off, if you look at his height and weight, you might be able to deduce this as he is a big boy. According to Baseball Reference, he is listed at 6-3 and 265 pounds.

He has played in 366 games in his MLB career and he has exactly one triple and one stolen base so he is not a threat to run on the basepaths.

In addition, if you check out MLB’s Statcast data through Baseball Savant, Bour’s average sprint speed was 25.0 feet per second, which is dead in the middle of 23 ft/second, which is considered to be very poor, and 27 ft/second, which is league average. That means that he is the fourth slowest first baseman in baseball. In comparison to the Rockies, the only non-pitcher that was slower than Bour was catcher Ryan Hanigan, who’s average sprint speed was 24.6 feet per second.

PHOENIX, AZ – SEPTEMBER 22: JD Martinez #28 of the Arizona Diamondbacks beats out a throw to first base as Justin Bour #41 of the Miami Marlins catches the throw from third base during the sixth inning at Chase Field on September 22, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

What it would take to get him

Bour is eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career this offseason. MLB Trade Rumors projects that he will make around $3.5 million in 2018 so Bour is a cheap first base option, monetarily. However, to get him, the Rockies would obviously have to make a trade. Considering that Bour’s health has not been great in the past few seasons, he should be easier to acquire than his teammates outfielder Christian Yelich and catcher JT Realmuto.

Considering this, I think that it is tough to gauge what it would take to get him but I don’t think that he would require one of the Rockies top five prospects to acquire. However, if he were to come to Colorado with Yelich and/or Realmuto as well, the Marlins would obviously want more prospects in return.

Mike Petriello of MLB.com mentioned this possibility a few days ago on Twitter.

I keep thinking there's a tremendous trade fit between the Marlins & Rockies. Yelich. Realmuto. Bour. Some combination. Colorado could use any of them. Can't stop now; a bat has to come from somewhere.
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) December 30, 2017

He makes an excellent point in the tweet: the Rockies cannot be content with the bullpen moves that they have made. They need at least one bat. Whether that be at catcher because, let’s be honest, Chris Iannetta isn’t hitting 30 home runs. The Rockies also need a first baseman and/or a corner outfielder.

Petriello also made some hot takes on the Rockies too.

More hot #Rockies takes:

- Oberg & Rusin are the best relievers you don't know
- Senzatela is a future (soon-ish) RP, for me
- Wouldn't help bats, but I love the idea of Dyson or Hamilton in that giant CF.
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) December 30, 2017

The center fielders he’s talking about Billy Hamilton of the Cincinnati Reds and Jarrod Dyson, who is a free agent. Both are two of the fastest players in all of baseball.

Next: 18 things that we are looking forward to in 2018

Be that as it may, the Rockies need to acquire at least one bat and Justin Bour would provide the Rockies with an affordable first base bat to put in the middle of the lineup.

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Colorado Rockies: Should they trade for Justin Bour of Miami?

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