Colorado Rockies: Will they look to lock up Arenado long term?

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PHOENIX, AZ – SEPTEMBER 11: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies makes a play on a ground ball hit by Brandon Drury #27 of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning at Chase Field on September 11, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. Drury was forced out at first base. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

Well, the Houston Astros’ World Series celebration tour seems to finally be fizzling out. That winter chill is in the Mile High air. Thanksgiving has passed us by. That’s right folks…welcome to the baseball offseason. This offseason is sure to be as eventful as ever with some big names on the trading block, and a group of very productive free agents out there for the signing. As Rox Pile’s James LaGrow wrote, the Rockies should have a strategy in place to address this offseason. However, I imagine there is something lingering in the back of minds of the Rockies’ front office, as it relates to the future and direction of the team…the contract situation for Nolan Arenado.

Keeping it in the spirit of the recent Thanksgiving holiday that just came and went, I want to guess what Nolan Arenado was thankful for this baseball season…besides family, health and all that stuff, of course.

The Wild Card finish in a stacked division has to be at the top of his list. His teammate, Charlie Blackmon’s historic season in the leadoff spot has to right up there too. However, I am guessing he’s pretty thankful for all that precious metal he was awarded this season. That is a lot of bling for the young, Rockies third basemen, who was the recipient of 2017’s Silver Slugger, Gold Glove and Platinum glove.

Arenado, who just turned 26 years old in April, has emerged as the premier third basemen in Major League Baseball…and will surely be paid as such.

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 26: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates as he crosses home plater after hitting a 2 RBI home run in the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Coors Field on September 26, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Currently, he is under team control through the end of the 2019 season. The Rockies and Arenado agreed to a two-year deal back in January. Arenado earned $11.75MM in 2017 and will earn $17.75MM in 2018. Arenado will be arbitration-eligible one last time after this deal is up, and he could become a free agent after the 2019 season. So, there is some time to figure out a new deal. However, it’s never too early to start talking numbers…or even if the Rockies are going to go long term with Arenado.

Before get into the will he/won’t he and will they/won’t they, we need to try to roughly estimate what kind of contract Nolan Arenado is going to pull. The main determining factors (without any context to the teams and their needs) here is fair market value and how the league perceives Arenado’s performance. Let’s start with a baseline number. Now, obviously, this is probably Scott Boras out here driving up the market for his players, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted this out a little over a week ago:

The J.D. Martinez asking price to teams at GM Meetings:
Seven years, $210 million
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) November 15, 2017

So, what does J.D. Martinez‘s free agency now, have to do with Nolan Arenado? According to Baseball-Reference.com, Nolan Arenado and J.D. Martinez have a similarity score of 923.6 out of 1000. Similarity score is just a methodology of comparing players, factoring in a number of offensive and defensive metrics. No player is more similar to Arenado than Martinez.

Whether you buy into this methodology or not, even a quick side by side comparison shows that they have very similar career numbers offensively. So, we know as a baseline starting point determined by market, Nolan Arenado would be worth the 7 Year, $210 million contract.

PITTSBURGH, PA – JUNE 14: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies high fives with Nolan Arenado #28 after the final out in the Colorado Rockies 5-1 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on June 14, 2017 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

It doesn’t take a veteran of a MLB front office to tell you that Arenado provides a ton of value offensively and defensively. It’s an extremely difficult combination of talent to match at 26 years of age. In fact, he’s at a Hall of Fame pace offensively, being the first third baseman in history with at least 35 home runs and 130 RBIs in three straight seasons.

Now, his home and road splits are where the discounts will come into play. The closest I could possibly think of in this recent market to compare him to was Robinson Cano in terms of production, from offensive and defensive standpoints. However, Robinson Cano was 5 years older than Arenado when he signed his 10 year, $240 million contract.

So, with past production, talent, age and market value in mind, I think we can safely settle on a 10 year, $275 million contract…at the very least. There has been a lot of speculation that Arenado could command a $300 million contract. It is certainly not out of the realm of possibility to see a major market team offer up a contract of that size for Arenado’s services.

One has to believe the biggest question that needs to be answered in this discussion is pretty simple; Will the Rockies shell out the money? If I can whip up the rough estimate above, then it’s safe to assume that the Rockies have a pretty good idea of what Arenado is going to be worth, as well. While there has been no reports of contract talks as of yet, Rockies know that, despite Arenado dropping Scott Boras as an agents a few years back, there won’t be any home town discounts either. The reality is that the Rockies have some signed some very large contracts relative to the market of the time…but that $27.5million dollars (at a bare minimum) contract is a large pill for a middle market team to swallow.

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 26: Nolan Arenado # 28 and Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies celebrate their win against the Miami Marlins at Coors Field on September 26, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

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There are reasons to be optimistic on the Rockies potentially signing Arenado to long-term deal. First, he was top 10 Rookie of the Year finalist, three-time Top 10 MVP Finalist, three-time All-Star, three-time Silver Slugger, five time Gold Glover, and a Platinum Glove recipient. Nolan Arenado is a once in a lifetime talent. If the Rockies truly want to contend for a World Series title, they need to look no further than Nolan Arenado to start. He is a franchise player, with a seemingly good character, who would be the main anchor to a ball club with post-season aspirations.

Secondly, the Rockies are about to come into a little extra cash. Per Craig Edwards of Fangraphs, the local TV contract for the Rockies is expiring in 2020. With the way baseball viewership has been trending upward again, the Rockies will undoubtedly be negotiating a more lucrative payout for local television rights that could be used towards a large contract.

Now all of this is just assuming that Nolan Arenado wants to continue his playing career in the Mile High City. When courting young stars, a winning is as important as the willingness to write the big check. If the Rockies can show that they can put a contending team over the next couple seasons, that would only add to the value of staying in Colorado.

Next: Former Rockies on the 2018 Hall of Fame ballot

However, don’t be surprised when that pesky Dodgers team comes knocking, telling tales of playing baseball at home in Southern California…with a blank check in hand.

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