Predicting the Colorado Rockies top 5 home run leaders of 2024

The thin Colorado air, a hitter's dream! Everyone knows at this point that the ball flies a bit further at Coors Field than it does in every other stadium. It even hurts some guys track record because people discredit them for playing a majority of their career in Colorado. They have moved the fences back to create an extremely large outfield area with left field being nearly 350 feet away from home plate, while centerfield is a whopping 415 feet away. Still, this doesn't seem to faze some of the prolific power hitters in the game (just take a look at Giancarlo Stanton's 504 ft home run in 2016).

Looking at the Rockies lineup for 2024, no one really strikes you as a "prolific power-hitter", but they do have some guys that are really solid hitters. The middle of the order may not rival the "Murderers' Row" of the Yankees late 1920's lineup, or the 2023 Braves tying a single season record with 307 team home runs. The Rockies lineup could surprise you with a few guys that have some good pop and could take advantage of the effects of Coors Field. Let's countdown who the top five home run hitters in the Rockies lineup will be in 2024.

Elehuris Montero has a mini power breakout and hits 21 home runs

Montero was one of the key pieces coming back to the Rockies in the atrocious Nolan Arenado trade. With a lot of pressure as the expected third baseman of the future to replace Arenado, Montero looked to be ready to destroy major league pitching. In 100 games in the minor leagues between 2022 and 2023, he hit over .300 both years (.359 in 2023) with a crazy 30 combined home runs. Throughout his time as a prospect with both the Cardinals and Rockies, he has constantly been given high power grades by MLB Pipeline.

Montero played in 82 games in Colorado in 2023, and he struggled quite a bit. He had a 36.2% strikeout rate and this is just something that he hasn't ever struggled with, (17.2% in Triple-A in 2023 and 21.2% in Triple-A in 2022). He hit just 11 home runs, but there is obviously some serious potential here. I fully expect Montero to cut that strikeout rate down below 30% this year; that paired with him expecting to play 120+ games, he should have no problem clearing the 20-home run mark with his power.

The model of consistency, Ryan McMahon, continues with 22 home runs in 2024

One of the better Rockies players over the last five or ten years, Ryan McMahon has been a staple in the middle of the Rockies order. With some really impressive seasons in 2021 and 2022, his 2023 saw a bit of regression with his strikeout rate climbing over 5% higher. McMahon has been one of the better defenders in baseball and has provided about average offensive value (at least by wRC+ standards). One thing that McMahon has done well is provide consistent 20+ home run power. From 2019 through 2023 he has hit at least 20 in each season, topping out at 24 in 2019.

McMahon will surely look to cut back on those strikeouts after his 2021 and 2022 seasons saw respectable numbers at 24.7% and 26.5% respectively. McMahon had nearly 40 more strikeouts in 2023 than he had in any previous year, meaning if he can cut that back, those 40 strikeouts should result in a few more home runs for the long time third baseman.

McMahon does a really good job at hitting the ball hard and barreling up the baseball, two things that obviously help if you're trying to hit home runs. His career average exit velocity of 90.9 mph is 2.5 mph harder than the major league average, while his average barrel percentage of 9.2 is nearly 3% higher than the major league average. McMahon should have no problem clearing the 20-home run mark, and if he can cut back on the strikeouts, we might see him clear his career high of 24.

Kris Bryant is healthy and fans get to see his bat on display in Colorado, with 28 home runs

We all know that Bryant has the ability to be a 30+ home run hitter. He has done it twice in his career and been just under 30 multiple other times. The 6'5 outfielder possesses incredible power and fans in Colorado are just dying to see it on display. Bryant has been oft injured in his time in Colorado, making it extremely hard for fans to be able to enjoy some majestic "KB" bombs.

Bryant has moved to first base this year in an effort to keep him healthier and this could bear tons of fruit for Bryant and the Rockies in 2024. This should out a lot less stress on Bryant's body, while keeping his leg fresh enough to take advantage of the thin Colorado air this year.

Bryant has said that he feels healthy heading into 2024 after fighting and playing through injuries last year. Hopefully he can stay healthy enough to play in 130 games for the Rockies, if he can, I expect a power surge of 28 home runs, much like the one he hit above in spring training.

The superstar builds off his breakout 2023, with an even better year, slugging 32 home runs

In a season of many downs, there was without a doubt, no brighter spot than the emergence of outfielder Nolan Jones. He came out of nowhere and put together one of the best rookie seasons in franchise history. His power-speed combination was on full display all year and must watch TV in the Colorado area.

Jones was heralded for his bat speed, strength and raw power as a prep athlete. He didn't really seem like he could tap fully into it in the minor leagues, topping out at 19 home runs in 2018 with the Cleveland Guardians. After his trade to Colorado before the 2023 season, we saw those power numbers absolutely skyrocket.

In just 39 games at Triple-A Albuquerque, Jones hit 12 home runs, earning him a call up to the big leagues, where he proceeded to hit 20 home runs in 106 games. This was no fluke as Jones posted a 94th percentile barrel percentage, 88th percentile expected slugging percentage and above average exit velocity. Jones has truly elite traits, and a swing built to take advantage of the thin Colorado air. While Jones' 2023 was an impressive year, he should lead this team in home runs, becoming the first Rockies player to hit 30 home runs since Arenado, Story and Blackmon did it in 2019.

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