Predicting the Colorado Rockies top 5 home run leaders of 2024

The model of consistency, Ryan McMahon, continues with 22 home runs in 2024

One of the better Rockies players over the last five or ten years, Ryan McMahon has been a staple in the middle of the Rockies order. With some really impressive seasons in 2021 and 2022, his 2023 saw a bit of regression with his strikeout rate climbing over 5% higher. McMahon has been one of the better defenders in baseball and has provided about average offensive value (at least by wRC+ standards). One thing that McMahon has done well is provide consistent 20+ home run power. From 2019 through 2023 he has hit at least 20 in each season, topping out at 24 in 2019.

McMahon will surely look to cut back on those strikeouts after his 2021 and 2022 seasons saw respectable numbers at 24.7% and 26.5% respectively. McMahon had nearly 40 more strikeouts in 2023 than he had in any previous year, meaning if he can cut that back, those 40 strikeouts should result in a few more home runs for the long time third baseman.

McMahon does a really good job at hitting the ball hard and barreling up the baseball, two things that obviously help if you're trying to hit home runs. His career average exit velocity of 90.9 mph is 2.5 mph harder than the major league average, while his average barrel percentage of 9.2 is nearly 3% higher than the major league average. McMahon should have no problem clearing the 20-home run mark, and if he can cut back on the strikeouts, we might see him clear his career high of 24.