The Colorado Rockies face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight in the second game of a four-game series. Chad Kuhl faces off against Zac Gallen and I see value in tonight’s game. Below are the odds for this matchup per our friends at WynnBET:
Rockies +1.5 (-150)
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+130)
Over 9.0 (-105)
Under 9.0 (-115)
The total for this game started at 8.0 when it was released last night and it’s risen to 9.0 as of this writing. I think that’s insane given the pitching matchup tonight. And even though it’s one we saw last weekend at Coors (repeat matchups can get dangerous if they’re too close together), I think we have enough data to show where this game is going tonight.
Chad Kuhl has been the Colorado Rockies‘ most reliable starter this season and comes into tonight with a 3.83 ERA, paired with a 4.03 FIP and a 4.66 xFIP. That xFIP points to the fact that he’s probably gotten a bit lucky compared to his ERA, but it’s not a drastic difference. His last outing was against these same Diamondbacks and was marred by one single mistake which unfortunately resulted in a David Peralta grand slam. Had it not been for that we’d be talking about a five-inning, one-earned run performance from Kuhl. That would line up closer with his start in Arizona earlier this season where he went for six innings and five strikeouts, amounting to one earned run on three hits.
Pair that with the fact that Arizona is throwing Zac Gallen. He similarly made just one mistake in that same game, giving up one of the two homers that C.J. Cron crushed late. Outside of that, Gallen has been great in his career against the Rockies. They’re the team he’s started against the most in his career and has a 2.38 ERA against Colorado in nine starts. That goes along with a career .652 OPS.
Current Rockies have a .276 wOBA against Gallen (paired with a .311 xwOBA) in 134 plate appearances. The biggest threat will be Charlie Blackmon, who is hitting .417 against Gallen in 26 plate appearances (amounting to a .433 wOBA). Outside of him, there aren’t many other big threats with a reliable amount of plate appearances against him to say the Rockies will do damage against him. He should keep the Rockies in check.
Current Diamondbacks have a .309 wOBA against Kuhl (paired with a .350 xwOBA) in 56 plate appearances. Those numbers seem a little more daunting, but he’s only given up four extra base hits to current Diamondbacks and two of those belong to Ketel Marte. If he can limit Marte tonight, then he should be fine.
Essentially, I think it’s going to be very hard to see double-digits put up in this game. Arizona leads the league in unders at home, which are hitting at a 62.8% clip (27-16-2). They’ve got the right guy on the hill for the under in Gallen and the Rockies have the right guy going as well.
Don’t expect much offensive productivity tonight. If the road Rockies couldn’t light up 2022 Dallas Keuchel, and the home Diamondbacks couldn’t light up 2022 Austin Gomber, then we shouldn’t expect much out of either lineup tonight against stronger starters in Gallen and Kuhl.
PLAY: Rockies/D-Backs UNDER 9.0 (-115)
As a note, these opinions do not necessarily reflect the views of Rox Pile or FanSided. When it comes to gambling, know when to stop before you start. If you think you might have a gambling problem, call (800) 522-4700.