What Statcast says about the Colorado Rockies’ starters

Antonio Senzatela

Antonio Senzatela has generally been a successful pitcher at Coors Field that has defied some of the advanced metrics, which say he shouldn’t be having the success he’s having. While much of what Statcast does isn’t what I would call “advanced,” it’s more than clear by his Statcast profile that they are not enthusiastic about what he’s done in 2022.

Senzatela ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in the following categories:

• xwOBA
• xERA
• xBA
• xSLG
• K percentage
• Whiff percentage

He’s never been a big strikeout guy and has always lived off soft contact, but these numbers are ugly. His strikeout rate of 6.4 percent is nearly 10 percent lower than his rate last year, which was already in the bottom 5 percent of the league at 15.7 percent. You can get by with a low strikeout rate, even at Coors Field, but when you’re in the single digits then you are asking for trouble in nearly any stadium you play at.

But beyond the strikeout rate being microscopic, it’s what hitters are doing with his pitches. They’re hitting him for a .427 wOBA with a .421 xwOBA. That’s like facing 2021 Juan Soto every single at-bat.

Senzatela’s four-seam fastball, which he throws 50.6 percent of the time, is getting tagged for a .519 wOBA and a .504 xwOBA, so those results have been fairly true. His slider, which he throws 32.8 percent of the time, is getting tagged for a .418 wOBA and a .402 xwOBA, so those results are pretty true as well.

That means over 83 percent of Senzatela’s pitches are getting hit for at least a .400 wOBA. That is not good.

For reference, last season, his fastball got hit for a .315 wOBA and his slider got hit for a .342 wOBA. He throws them at about the same rates this season, so he’s either missing his spots or hitters are seeing him better to start the season.

The Statcast numbers aren’t pretty, but so far, it’s resulted in relatively little scoring (3.75 ERA). However, negative regression needs to be expected as is made evident by his 4.33 FIP and 4.74 xFIP.

If he focuses more on getting more strikeouts, or simply increasing his groundball rate (38.7 percent this season) then he can limit the amount of negative regression. But it’s coming and it may not be pretty if he doesn’t make the necessary changes.