What Statcast says about the Colorado Rockies’ starters

Chad Kuhl

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the season so far has been just how well Chad Kuhl has pitched this season. He has, by far, the best Statcast profile of any Colorado Rockies starters this season, ranking average or above average in the following metrics:

• xwOBA
• xERA
• xBA
• xSLG
• Barrel percentage
• Whiff percentage
• BB percentage
• Chase Rate

The biggest question with Kuhl is simply this: How much of his season is a result of luck and should we expect negative regression?

The answer is yes, but probably not as much as you’d think.

Hitters are hitting him for a wOBA of .215 and an xwOBA of .293, so it’s only natural that he’ll soon regress to the mean. But that is by no means a poor xwOBA as it ranks in the 74th percentile. He’s in the same company right now as guys like Justin Verlander by that metric (.295 xwOBA in 2022).

So what’s working?

Specifically, it’s his slider that’s getting a lot of work done. He’s mixing it up pretty well with his sinker, making it a bit more unpredictable to know which one’s coming. He throws his slider 39.2 percent of the time and his sinker 37.2 percent of the time.

While his sinker’s getting hit for a .345 wOBA, his slider’s only getting hit for a .103 wOBA. His sinker’s results are pretty true (.367 xwOBA) but his slider will eventually get hit a little better as it has a .229 xwOBA. Now, that’s still a fantastic xwOBA to have, so even when that regression comes he’ll still get some really good results out of it.

Last season with the Pirates, Kuhl had much worse results, posting up a .347 wOBA with a .334 xwOBA. That led to a 4.82 ERA, 5.31 FIP, and a 4.90 xFIP. Those numbers were a reason I was initially not a fan of Kuhl’s signing. However, a key change in his pitch mix seems to be the main driver in his resurgence this season and the main reason why he’s making me eat my words.

In 2021, Kuhl’s second most used pitch was his four-seam fastball. He threw it 25.4 percent of the time and it got hit for a .420 wOBA. This season he’s only throwing it 3.7 percent of the time, drastically limiting the damage hitters can get off him and instead focusing more on his better pitches in his slider and sinker. This appears to be the largest change he’s made this season and it’s providing much, much better results than anticipated.

We’ll soon see some negative regression, but Kuhl’s hot start shouldn’t be cooled off a ton and his signing will continue to look like a positive one for the Rockies.