What Statcast says about the Colorado Rockies’ starters

Germán Márquez 

Try not to fret too much, but Colorado Rockies’ starter Germán Márquez’s Statcast profile isn’t pretty. Going into Sunday’s start, he ranked in the 20th percentile or worse in the following categories:

• Exit Velocity
• Hard Hit percentage
• xwOBA
• xERA
• xBA
• xSLG
• K percentage
• Whiff percentage

None of this is what we’re accustomed to from Márquez, who we traditionally view as the Rockies’ ace (sorry Jon Gray). The only metric he had last year that was in the 20th percentile or worse was his fastball spin rate, but that’s not as bad as it looks given that a lower spin rate fastball works better at Coors Field. So to see these drops early in the season? Well, it’s not good.

Either he’s missing his spots or hitters are seeing him better to start the season. This is shown by his Whiff Percentage. Last year it was up to 27 percent. That was a touch above league average as it ranked in the 57th percentile. This season it’s down to 19 percent, ranking in the 14th percentile. It’s pretty evident in all of his pitches too.

On his fastball hitters are whiffing at just a 9.1 percent rate compared to 14 percent last season. His slider’s whiff rate dropped from 40.1 percent last season to 31.7 percent this season. And his curve’s down from a 42.7 percent whiff rate to a 26.7 percent whiff rate. Given that these are his three most common pitches, that’s a bad sign.

Now he has been getting a bit unlucky based on xwOBA (.390 xwOBA paired with a .410 wOBA), but that’s still a high number (a .410 wOBA is basically the same production as 2017 Charlie Blackmon when he finished fifth in the NL MVP race).

By pitch, it’s hitters getting a hold of his fastball that’s hurting him the most. It’s getting crushed for a .510 wOBA with a .414 xwOBA. That’s a big gap, but still a high number regardless. He’s gotten a touch lucky on his slider (.311 wOBA to .343 xwOBA), but that doesn’t change much of the results we’re getting from him.

Márquez’s velocity has been pretty consistent from last season to this season, so this likely isn’t anything to do with velocity. Hitters are simply seeing him better or he’s missing his spots. Márquez is trying to combat this by switching up his pitch mix a little bit, mostly with an equal swap in usage from his fastball (45.5 percent in 2021 to 36 percent in 2022) and his slider (26.9 percent in 2021 to 32.3 percent in 2022). But that switch doesn’t matter if hitters keep seeing him well no matter what.

Positive regression will come to Márquez soon enough as told by his xFIP (3.60 xFIP compared to a 5.43 FIP and 6.92 ERA entering his start Sunday), but he needs to get more whiffs on his pitches to increase his K percent. A 15.7 percent K rate won’t get it done for Márquez, especially when he’s traditionally in the low 20s.

After Márquez’s better start on Sunday (6 IP, 6 H, 4 R/3 ER, 4 BB, 7 K), Bud Black said that he was “encouraged” by the start. The walk rate is a bit high but the start is a step in the right direction.