Do the Colorado Rockies have one of the worst rotations, bullpens?

Jun 12, 2021; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher German Marquez (48) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 12, 2021; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher German Marquez (48) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

After they ranked the Colorado Rockies as one of the worst teams in baseball at nearly every single position, FanGraphs’ power rankings of the Colorado Rockies’ starting rotation and bullpen were expected to be low and, sure enough, they were low.

They projected the Rockies’ rotation at 22nd and the bullpen at dead last (30th).

The Colorado Rockies do not have a bottom 10 rotation, despite the projections

The ranking for the Colorado Rockies bullpen is a bit harsh but after recent seasons, it’s easy to see why it could be the case. They shouldn’t have the worst bullpen in the sport in 2021 but bottom 10? It could be the case if some of their pitchers pitch as they did particularly in the first two months of the season. But the starting rotation ranking is egregious.

The starting rotation is the strength of the Colorado Rockies and for good reason. In 2021, none of their returning four starting pitchers (Germân Márquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, and Austin Gomber) had an ERA above Gomber’s 4.53. None of them had an ERA+ above 105. None of them had a FIP above 4.63 and Márquez and Senzatela even had FIPs of 3.86 and 3.61.

However, FanGraphs projects that Márquez will be the only Rockies starter with an ERA below 5.00 and none of them with an ERA below 4.50.

It does suggest a lot of bad luck as none of the four have projected FIP above 4.81 but considering each of the four and their pitching profiles, they simply should not be that bad.

As Rox Pile’s Tyler Paddor discussed in this article recently, the Rockies have a different pitching philosophy than other teams … and it has worked for them at Coors Field.

Márquez, Senzatela, and Gomber all pitched better at Coors Field (which baffles FanGraphs projections system and everyone outside of Colorado) but all three did better at Coors because their low fastball spin rate and high groundball rate. The same applied for Jon Gray, who signed with Texas via free agency.

As Paul Sporer noted in the explanation, the projections don’t really line up with their proven success.

“[Senzatela’s, Freeland’s, and Gomber’s] collective penchant for allowing contact coupled with their home park makes it tough to project their ERAs to match. Despite the recent history that says they can pull it off, it makes sense that the models would play things more cautiously.”

Do the Rockies have a top 5 rotation? No. Maybe not even a top 10 (they ranked the Dodgers at 10, for comparison but the Yankees, laughably, have the top spot) but they definitely have a rotation in the top half of the sport.

That is why projections always have to be taken with a grain of salt. After all, there’s a reason why baseball games aren’t played on a computer: they aren’t humans and humans do good things and also make mistakes. They also happen to still be smarter than computers and robots, despite what people thought would be the case 50 years ago when they predicted the future.

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