The rotation depth is a big problem for the Colorado Rockies
The biggest question for the Colorado Rockies will still be the back end of the rotation. I have confidence that Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, and Kyle Freeland will continue to produce at a high level, but we need to see what comes from Austin Gomber in his second season.
His park-adjusted stats (95 ERA-, 103 FIP-) read better than his traditional stats (4.53 ERA, 4.61 FIP) and, if he’s able to replicate those, then league-average results would be very good for him in the #4 spot in the rotation. But the league has more of a book on Gomber now, so he’ll need to adjust.
As for the #5 spot, there are major questions here. I’m not certain we’ll see much productivity out of that spot regardless of who gets it, so this will be the biggest threat to clearing the over. I am not big on Chad Kuhl (his numbers last season are major fade material) and think guys like Peter Lambert still have a lot of work to do before they can be considered reliable at a major league level. This is the biggest threat to clearing 70 wins.
When all is said and done, the Rockies should be a 70+ win team this season. Some of the projections out there are not as high on the Rockies (Fangraphs projects a 68-94 record while PECOTA projects a 67-95 record) but I feel like these numbers are a little low. The Rockies aren’t in a spot to truly compete, but I believe a 70+ win season is most certainly in the cards for them.
And to help, we know they likely won’t make many adjustments at the trade deadline if they get into a spot where it would be advantageous to trade assets for prospects (if they weren’t making any moves last year when the world was SCREAMING for them to trade Story and Gray then it will take a small miracle for them to make any big moves this season).
They’ll keep doing what they do and getting at least 70 wins is more than feasible. Over 70.0 wins is the play here.
Now moving on to some of the bigger odds …