An in-depth preview of the 2022 Colorado Rockies season

For once, there’s absolutely no shortage of topics to talk about when it comes to the Colorado Rockies. They shocked the baseball world by signing Kris Bryant and, subsequently, confused said baseball world as literally no one nationally has any idea what to make of them. Not like the Rockies haven’t helped influence that mindset over the past few years (OK fine, last few decades), but no one seems to understand the Rockies and what they’re doing this season.

That’s where we come in.

We’ll cover the key acquisitions the Rockies made this offseason, what it means for this current roster, discuss who’s facing the most pressure in 2022, give you a gambling preview courtesy of our friends at WynnBET and then answer some questions from a quick Twitter Q&A.

So let’s get to it!

Colorado Rockies key acquisitions through Free Agency and Trades

José Iglesias – SS (1 year, $5M)
Alex Colomé – RP (1 year, $4.1M)
Chad Kuhl – SP (1 year, $3M)
Kris Bryant – LF (7 years, $182M)
Randal Grichuk – OF (2 years, $18.6M. Acquired through trade for Raimel Tapia)

Now, it’d be disingenuous to evaluate these moves without considering how the Colorado Rockies got here. In a silo, you can paint a majority of these signings/trades in a very positive light. But for many, a shadow of doubt clouds everything the Rockies do thanks to the debacles of Nolan Arenado’s departure, Trevor Story’s falling out, and, apparently, just not wanting Jon Gray to stay badly enough.

All of that is also shaped by not trading Story and Gray at the deadline, signifying the team didn’t want to enter a rebuild and has the mindset that they feel they can compete this year. Many thought this was the wrong move as conventional wisdom would’ve pointed to the Rockies needing to rebuild, but the Rockies have never done things the conventional way. Whether this irks you or not frames your mindset around this offseason.

Now, to the moves.

Here’s a quick breakdown by player.

New Colorado Rockies left fielder Kris Bryant

We will start off with the biggest name. The Colorado Rockies surprised the entirety of the baseball world by landing him and, in a short amount of time after, a ton of tweets from 2016-2018 ended up getting deleted from many Rockies’ fans Twitter accounts in a very strange phenomenon.

Bryant will be in left field this season, a decision that ultimately started the process of trading Raimel Tapia to the Toronto Blue Jays. By the numbers, left field, or any of the outfield really, is not his strong suit defensively. He’d be best suited for third base but the current Rockie manning the hot corner (Ryan McMahon) was superb last year with the glove and there’s no reason to change what’s happening there. So left field it is for Bryant.

His glove will be a dropoff from what we’re used to, but he will more than make up for it in his bat. He notched a 123 wRC+ last season for a 3.6 fWAR, both of which will be major contributions for the Rockies.

Essentially, you are getting a value out of him that you’re going to expect from Trevor Story. The difference here is that Bryant will give you a little more out of his bat than Story would while Story’s glove brings more value than Bryant’s will. Things balance out.

If he can unlock the level he was at in his first few years in the league then he can surpass what Story had brought to the Rockies. He’s a positive addition to this roster who is looking to compete and a necessary piece for them if they truly have visions of October.

New Colorado Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk

A member of the Toronto Blue Jays for the past four seasons, new Colorado Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk is a strong power hitter who’s good for around 25 home runs per season. He can play both CF and RF, though he spent more time in center for the Blue Jays last season. Defensively, he was best in right field, so it may make sense to slide him in there if the spot is up for grabs and Sam Hilliard proves himself in center field.

He’s an upgrade at the plate over Raimel Tapia, though he appears to be pretty inconsistent (and I’ve been warned as such by Blue Jays fans already). He’s been on and off over the past few seasons as his wRC+ has oscillated from below league average to above league average (95, 115, 90, 108, 85). By this pattern, he’s certainly set for an above league average year because that’s just proven by science to be what’s going to happen.

By fWAR and bWAR he’s going to bring value to the team, but he’s probably not going to eclipse a 1.0 WAR. He should help solidify the offense while sacrificing a touch with the glove, a bit of a trend in the outfield between him and Bryant.

New Colorado Rockies closer Alex Colomé

New Colorado Rockies closer Alex Colomé is a bullpen arm that spent last season in Minnesota. He put up an ERA of 4.15 and put up decent park-adjusted stats (96 ERA- and 99 FIP-). That was in a down year from his normal standards, so it’s either a sign that his best days are behind him or that there’s room for improvement from what he did last season.

Regardless, he’s got a pretty decent groundball percentage (53.7 percent) and that should ideally work well at Coors. He’s a two-pitch pitcher (fastball and cutter) that will likely be used most in situations where the Rockies need a double-play to get out of an inning. If he can limit hard hits and get back to his form in prior years then this could be a very sneaky good signing.

As it looks right now, he’s someone that won’t be detrimental to the bullpen and should be another fairly reliable arm in a bullpen that needs as many decent arms as possible.

New Colorado Rockies shortstop José Iglesias

Filling Trevor Story’s void at shortstop for the Colorado Rockies is José Iglesias. He’s someone who, as a hitter, is a little hard to get a good read on in terms of projections.

In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he hit for a 160 wRC+ with Baltimore, but that seems to be an outlier compared to nearly every other season of his career besides 2013 (his only other season with a wRC+ above 100). He hit for a wRC+ of 82 with the Angels last season and was eventually traded to the Boston Red Sox where he hit for a 148 wRC+ but that was in only 64 plate appearances.

So can we expect that he’ll hit as he did for the Red Sox last season? Probably not given the sample size and his prior seasons, but a wRC+ around 91 would be OK to expect. While it’s a dropoff from Story’s production, it’s a slight increase from Tapia’s production, particularly when you adjust for park factors.

He’s not going to rip the cover off the ball at all, but he gives you much of what Tapia did (low K%, low BB%, lots of contact with few HRs) but doesn’t have the same dramatically high groundball rate. He’s not going to blow you away, but he shouldn’t be detrimental to a Rockies’ lineup that only put up a wRC+ of 82 last season.

New Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Chad Kuhl

Chad Kuhl spent the last five seasons with Pittsburgh but he will be with the Colorado Rockies in 2022. He’s been OK as a starter throughout his career (4.44 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 107 ERA-, 109 FIP-) but last season, he saw a real decline. His ERA jumped to 4.82 (116 ERA-) and his FIP jumped to 5.31 (126 FIP-). It was his second straight season with a FIP- above 120, which, for me, is a bad sign of how he’ll perform in the future. The same goes for his xFIP, which last season was 4.90. The initial outlook doesn’t seem great.

One other strange thing about Kuhl’s stats last season were his home/road splits. Now, as Rockies fans are well aware, you shouldn’t look at a player’s home/road splits and instead look at the full picture. But I just couldn’t look away from Kuhl’s stats. He posted up a 2.41 ERA in PNC Park, his home stadium, and that was paired with a 7.32 ERA on the road. What worries me here is that, besides the obvious disparity, his xFIP was nearly the same whether at home or on the road (4.81 at home, 4.99 on the road).

What those numbers tell me is that his success at PNC Park was a result of a large amount of luck. Last season PNC Park had a league-average park factor, so I’m worried that we’re more likely to see subpar results out of Kuhl this season.

Kuhl has a pitch mix that’s mostly fastballs and sliders. He’ll mix in curveballs as well with a fairly minimal amount of changeups. He doesn’t give up many fly balls, which is great for Coors, but it doesn’t translate to a super high groundball rate. He gives up a decent amount of line drives, which is where a lot of damage can obviously be done. If he can increase his groundball rate from 44 percent to above 50 percent, which is a large ask, that may help him get better results than what he’s seen in prior years.

The Rockies facing the most pressure this season

I’m going to keep this on players who were on the roster prior to the Kris Bryant signing as Bryant will obviously have a ton of pressure on him.

Instead, I had my focus on two players prior to that signing that will be in a spot where a lot of pressure will be on them…one more so now than there would have been a few weeks ago as well: Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers

Ryan McMahon was already set to have a lot of pressure on him to take the next step in being a leader on this Rockies squad. Now, after his 6-year, $70M extension, he’s having more expectations set on him. He was phenomenal at 3rd base and took a major step with his bat, improving from a 77 wRC+ in 2020 (in a down year for him) to a 95 wRC+. He’ll now need to improve even more and work to sustain a wRC+ above league average and really take the next step to be a leader on this team on the field.

As for Rodgers, he finally got consistent time last season and put up a wRC+ of 100 and an fWAR of 1.6, the 4th highest of Rockies’ position players. He did that in just 102 games. It’s a WAR/150 of about 2.4, which isn’t overwhelming but is certainly valuable. With Rodgers slated at second base and the Rockies pretty much admitting they want to compete, another jump in production will be expected from Rodgers. He’s been very highly touted over his years as the replacement to Story and, though he’s in a different position now, he’ll need to fully take the reins as the next great Rockies middle infielder (which, based on the Rockies’ past 15 or so years, is an absolute necessity).

The pressure will be on these two to make continued improvements with additional expectations.

A Colorado Rockies Gambling Preview

Now to the fun part! We’ll see what our friends at WynnBET have in store for us with odds and see if we can find any value. Below are the relevant Rockies odds you can bet on through WynnBET:

70.0 Wins (-110 O/U)
NL Pennant Winner (+10000)
World Series Winner (+20000)
NL Cy Young – Germán Márquez (+7500)

These are the four futures we can bet on at WynnBET. There’s a notable future that isn’t currently available for some reason (Kris Bryant for NL MVP) but we’ll make do with what we have. Out of these four, there’s one line I really love and coincidentally it’s the only real playable line.

Recommended Pick: Colorado Rockies OVER 70.0 Wins (-110)

I had previously written about this in the middle of the lockout and prior to thinking the Rockies had any real chance at signing Kris Bryant. At the time, I was a fan of the Rockies going under 71.0 wins. But since then things have changed.

The analysis behind this line is pretty simple. With the moves the Rockies have made, I simply don’t believe that they’re going to be worse this season than they were last season. I was a huge fan of their under last year when it was set at 63.5 and they cleared that line by 10 games, finishing with 74 wins. With what the Rockies have done over the past month, I think that they at least can replicate those results.

Kris Bryant’s addition replaces what you lost from Trevor Story. Grichuk gives the Rockies a better OF bat than Tapia. Iglesias is a downgrade at the SS position, but his park-adjusted stats from last season give you a bat who produces somewhere between last year’s Sam Hilliard and Charlie Blackmon (though a very different hitting profile). The lineup should be improved from last season.

Where we may see some decrease in value from the lineup is from a defensive perspective. The Rockies have made a clear focus on improving the lineup and sacrificing on the defensive end. Part of that is forced (you don’t get much better defensively at SS than Trevor Story) but I think it’s also an admission that they recognize they need to improve offensively if they want to compete like they believe they can.

The rotation depth is a big problem for the Colorado Rockies

The biggest question for the Colorado Rockies will still be the back end of the rotation. I have confidence that Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, and Kyle Freeland will continue to produce at a high level, but we need to see what comes from Austin Gomber in his second season.

His park-adjusted stats (95 ERA-, 103 FIP-) read better than his traditional stats (4.53 ERA, 4.61 FIP) and, if he’s able to replicate those, then league-average results would be very good for him in the #4 spot in the rotation. But the league has more of a book on Gomber now, so he’ll need to adjust.

As for the #5 spot, there are major questions here. I’m not certain we’ll see much productivity out of that spot regardless of who gets it, so this will be the biggest threat to clearing the over. I am not big on Chad Kuhl (his numbers last season are major fade material) and think guys like Peter Lambert still have a lot of work to do before they can be considered reliable at a major league level. This is the biggest threat to clearing 70 wins.

When all is said and done, the Rockies should be a 70+ win team this season. Some of the projections out there are not as high on the Rockies (Fangraphs projects a 68-94 record while PECOTA projects a 67-95 record) but I feel like these numbers are a little low. The Rockies aren’t in a spot to truly compete, but I believe a 70+ win season is most certainly in the cards for them.

And to help, we know they likely won’t make many adjustments at the trade deadline if they get into a spot where it would be advantageous to trade assets for prospects (if they weren’t making any moves last year when the world was SCREAMING for them to trade Story and Gray then it will take a small miracle for them to make any big moves this season).

They’ll keep doing what they do and getting at least 70 wins is more than feasible. Over 70.0 wins is the play here.

Now moving on to some of the bigger odds …

Rockies NL Pennant Winner (+10000)
Rockies World Series Winner (+20000)

While I’m high on the Rockies over 70 wins, I don’t think these lines are anything you should put serious money on. The Rockies want to compete but they’re obviously not at this level quite yet.

I do believe there is a very, very, very outside shot at them making the playoffs (given that more than a few things fall in their favor and that there’s an extra playoff spot) but they’re not a threat to do any damage once they get there.

If you’re betting on these then you’re simply making a donation to your local sportsbook (and they appreciate it very much).

NL Cy Young – Germán Márquez (+7500)

While this can be a fun bet and Germán Márquez will be the best Rockie to back for this, it’s likely just another sportsbook donation type of bet. Because of the difficulties with pitching at altitude, it will always skew the perception of any Rockies pitcher. Márquez will likely need to have a sub-3.00 ERA to even start to be in consideration. With a career-low ERA of 3.75 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, it’s not something we should expect. His ERA- (74) and FIP- (70) from that season are more than impressive and worthy of being considered, but it’s going to be hard to be considered a favorite for the award rather than just be in the conversation.

Corbin Burnes last year put up a 57 ERA- and a 38 FIP-. The 2020 winner, Trevor Bauer, put up a 37 ERA- and a 62 FIP-. In 2019 Jacob deGrom put up a 59 ERA- and a 62 FIP-. In 2018 deGrom won it also with a 45 ERA- and a 49 FIP-. When Kyle Freeland finished 4th in voting in 2018, he had a 62 ERA- and an 86 FIP-.

That being said, Márquez has to be his best self and then some to be able to compete for this award. He will continue to be better than league average as a starter, but he’s unlikely to win the Cy Young without taking a major, major step forward. A stark increase in strikeouts would certainly help these numbers (specifically his FIP and FIP-) but it will still take more to win this award.

As a note, these opinions do not necessarily reflect the views of Rox Pile or FanSided. When it comes to gambling, know when to stop before you start. If you think you might have a gambling problem, call (800) 522-4700.

Colorado Rockies Twitter Q&A

Now to answer some of your questions submitted to me on Twitter about our Colorado Rockies.

We kind of touched on this earlier in this season preview, but I believe the Rockies are making a concerted effort to improve their bats while taking a bit of a sacrifice defensively. We’ve all seen how drastic the results were from homestand to road trip last season and I believe the Rockies are trying to combat that. Well, at least to some degree.

It’s hard losing a guy like Story, but outside of his glove, I don’t think we’re losing too much defensively. There can also be a defensive benefit just by getting Charlie Blackmon into the DH role. While I think many of the advanced defensive metrics are still wonky, some have been really harsh on Charlie Blackmon. Sam Hilliard and Randal Grichuk at least provide a little more speed in the outfield, so it may not be the worst development.

What they’re losing defensively, I believe they’re gaining offensively, so it balances out.

There is no making sense of the Colorado Rockies. You just have to sit back and attempt to enjoy the ride (I won’t lie, sometimes it’s terrible). The NL West is a really tough division and yes, they’re likely destined to finish in 4th behind the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres. But I think they see a lot more potential out of this lineup than most.

And that can be fair as I, too, see a lot of potential to really make a big jump in guys like McMahon, Rodgers, and Hilliard. The difference is knowing where the floor is and understanding what a realistic jump looks like.

Even with improvements, I don’t think the Rockies can contend this year, but dare I say I think they’re setting the foundation for future years and could contend somewhat soon. That’s as long as they continue to be aggressive in the offseason, which is a humongous IF given what we’ve seen from them in the past.

Why do the Colorado Rockies have so many outfielders?

This one comes from our friend, Evan Lang, of Purple Row. The Rockies seem to always have a logjam of outfielders, don’t they? I believe they’re trying to keep some flexibility in the outfield for certain spots.

We know for sure we’ll see Bryant and Grichuk out there, but that 3rd spot has a lot of questions. It likely won’t be Blackmon, but it could be if he pushes back on the DH role. So who wins out of Hilliard and Joe?

They’re the next two likely candidates to get the most time in the outfield. Then you’ve got to remember that Hampson spent the most time in CF last season, followed by Yonathan Daza. These two seem to be the odd men out, but both can have value, right? Hampson can play more positions if need be, but is Daza just pushed to the side? Is he eventual trade bait?

Lots of questions that I don’t think the Rockies have the answers to quite yet. If we still needed a lot of pinch hitters then maybe it makes more sense, but push will come to shove soon enough and they’re going to need to make decisions.

I think the Rockies feel like they truly found something in Elias Díaz. He hit for a 92 wRC+ and accumulated a 1.6 fWAR. Those numbers would look even better but he really struggled out of the gate. From June on, though, he was an absolute force at the plate.

To put Díaz’s season into better perspective, his 1.6 fWAR was one of the Top 6 seasons for Rockies catchers of all-time:

1. Miguel Olivo – 2010 (2.2 fWAR)
2. Jeff Reed 1997 & Tony Wolters 2016 (2.1 fWAR)
3. Elias Díaz 2021, Chris Iannetta 2009 & Jeff Reed 1998 (1.6 fWAR)

Now debate the strength of that list at your own will, but it was a sense of relief to finally have a catcher who was a threat at the plate. He’ll continue to be the main guy while Dom Nuñez catches on his off days.

What approach should the Rockies have with their rotation?

This is from one of our friends at Venom Strikes which is our sister site that covers the D-Backs. The Rockies’ starters have been a real bright spot for this team over the past five seasons. They’ve certainly held their own and, for the most part, have been league average or better by park-adjusted stats like ERA-, FIP- and xFIP-.

They continue to get a high amount of groundballs (47.3% in 2021, highest in the league) and that will generally lead to success. They likely need to strike more batters out more often (20.1 percent in 2021, 22nd overall) but what they’ve been doing has not been detrimental and has kept the Rockies in games they otherwise would have no business winning.

One area they do need to improve at, outside of K%, is their HR/FB%. Starters gave up a HR/FB% of 15.1%, 8th highest among starting staffs in the majors. None of the teams who had one of the ten highest HR/FB% rates made the playoffs last season. Only two teams who had one of the ten lowest rates missed the playoffs last year (Oakland and Seattle). It’s an obvious point of improvement, but one where the Rockies’ starters could really benefit.

So there we have it! A way too in-depth preview of the Colorado Rockies 2022 season that I know you read every single word of. Here’s to hoping that, no matter what happens this season, they notch at least 71 wins and we all make a little bit more money here (unless you’re fading me. In which case, how dare you?)