Colorado Rockies: Projecting the Opening Day lineup 2.0

The Colorado Rockies lineup is still a bit up in the air with less than two weeks before Opening Day but with recent roster moves, things seem to be a bit clearer, at least with the names that will be in the lineup.

Earlier this week, Rox Pile’s Kevin Henry looked at what the Rockies Opening Day lineup could be but since then, things have changed.

This week, the Colorado Rockies traded for Randal Grichuk from the Toronto Blue Jays. He has played a lot of center field in recent years but could also play right field.

These are the two main things the Rockies have to figure out for their lineup:

• Who will be the primary DH?
• How many platoons will they have?

To answer the first question, we know it will be a merry-go-round of a lot of outfielders and first basemen. The players most likely to spend the most time here are Charlie Blackmon, Sam Hilliard, Grichuk, Connor Joe, and C.J. Cron with occasional appearances by Kris Bryant and the team’s infielders. This will be a very versatile team so the Rockies will be shuffling their roster for most of the season defensively.

For the second question, we’ll dive into that a little bit later in the lineup.

But let’s look at what the lineup could be on Opening Day at the top of the lineup.

1) Colorado Rockies right fielder Charlie Blackmon

Charlie Blackmon hates to DH so we’re going to go out on a limb and say that manager Bud Black will put him in right field on Opening Day.

Blackmon has seen his power numbers go down recently and Black has utilized Blackmon in the leadoff spot in recent spring training games so he will likely be their new leadoff man.

2) Colorado Rockies left fielder Kris Bryant

For the “big bat” of the offseason, the average baseball fan may wonder why you would put your most powerful bat (for the Colorado Rockies, that is Kris Bryant) second in the lineup and there’s one main reason: it’s the spot that balances the most RBI and plate appearances.

The “heart of the lineup” has always been considered to be 3-4-5 when, if you look at RBI opportunities and plate appearances, it’s more like 2-3-4. We won’t go into all of the details here but you can learn more about why that’s the case here.

Bryant also has hit most in the two-hole in recent years and it’s the lineup spot where he has hit best and, particularly, with the most power.

3) Colorado Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon

The Colorado Rockies are banking on Ryan McMahon (quite literally) to be the power hitter that they saw in the first 65-70 games of 2021.

He was on pace for nearly 40 homers and 100+ RBI in that span so if he hits like that for power, then he will be a great #3 hitter for the team.

You can read more on his first half and his power dropoff in the second half here.

7) Colorado Rockies center fielder Randal Grichuk or Sam Hilliard

For the second question that we had earlier (“How many platoons will they have?”), there could be a few. The newest Colorado Rockies player, Randal Grichuk, is, essentially, a right-handed version of Sam Hilliard.

Both of them hit for a lot of power but swing and miss a lot so they have low batting averages and on-base percentages. So, in theory, the two could platoon in center field. In theory.

Grichuk hits left-handed pitching better, as you would think but Hilliard actually hits left-handed pitching better as well. Here are their splits in 2021:

On Opening Day, the Rockies will be facing right-handed pitcher Walker Buehler of the Los Angeles Dodgers. One of them will likely still be patrolling center field and considering that he’s a veteran and making more money, it seems like it will be Grichuk. However, both will see a lot of playing time whether it’s in center, right, or as a DH.

8) Colorado Rockies catcher Elias Díaz

Elias Díaz struggled to start the 2021 season but his final four months of the season were phenomenal.

In his final 78 games (June 2 through the end of the season), he had 17 homers, 40 RBI, and a slash line of ,284/.348/.553. That’s a 162-game pace of 35 homers and 83 RBI so if he continues to hit like that, he will be higher up in the lineup.

But if he hits .246/.310/.465 so, for now, he would hit eighth in the Rockies lineup.

9) Colorado Rockies shortstop José Iglesias

José Iglesias won’t be able to replace Trevor Story offensively and if his defensive metrics from the last few seasons are any indication, he won’t replace him defensively either.

In the last two full seasons of games (2019 and 2021), Iglesias had an OPS of .724 and .701, which was nearly identical to former Rockies outfielder Raimel Tapia. The Rockies had Tapia leading off because they had a bad offense and no particularly good offensive player to hit leadoff since Charlie Blackmon was in the power spots.

Now that Blackmon leads off, Iglesias will hit ninth.

In comparison to what it looked like just three weeks ago, the Rockies lineup actually looks like a semi-decent lineup. Now, if all or most of them play close to their potential, maybe, just maybe, the Rockies could be a team that sneaks up on people.