3 reasons why the Colorado Rockies will be better than expected in 2022

If you listen to everyone online, the state of the Colorado Rockies franchise is worse than ever. The stars are walking, the farm is in shambles, and the team lacks direction.

Some of these points have merit, and some of these points simply come from a depressed fanbase, not wanting to see positives in anything the team does.

First, before people call me a shill, I believe it would be in the best interest of the fans and players for Dick Monfort to sell the team. Often, Mr. Monfort makes things worse for the team and the fans. Just because the Colorado Rockies have one of the most aggravating owners in sports, however, doesn’t mean that there aren’t things to look forward to this quickly approaching season.

I do not think the Colorado Rockies are a playoff team. Despite this, I genuinely think people are undervaluing the Rockies. They will not be the worst team in baseball and here’s why:

1. The Colorado Rockies offseason was surprisingly productive

Before mentioning any of the deals that the Colorado Rockies did sign, I must bring up the elephant in the room. There are two players that have been integral to the Rockies that they failed to sign: Trevor Story and Jon Gray. To start off, I feel I must emphasize that Trevor Story wanted out. Even with the Bridich administration gone and Bill Schmidt taking the reins, the team was simply tainted to him. He was never coming back. I don’t really blame Schmidt for failing to resign Story.

Jon Gray, on the other hand, I totally blame Schmidt for. Gray is a great pitcher who wanted to stay in Denver. I mentioned in my pitching free agency article that Gray was simply one of the best on the market for the team. If they wanted to compete, losing Gray was a misstep, that simple. With that out of the way, it isn’t all bad. As a matter of fact, the Rockies made some really great signings this offseason, let’s break those down.

If the Rockies are going to try to “compete”, they made “most” of the right moves this offseason. Resigning reliever Jhoulys Chacin, starter Antonio Senzatela, catcher Elias Diaz, and first baseman C.J. Cron were all fantastic moves that make sense after all four showed strong seasons with the team. Diaz may finally be the offensive and defensive answer at catcher that the team has been looking for. Rockies legend Jhoulys Chacin has proven himself as an effective long reliever. Antonio Senzatela was outstanding at Coors Field in 2021. Finally, C.J. Cron is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Resigning these guys just simply makes sense.

The Rockies obviously also made a splash post-lockout signing former All-Stars in shortstop Jose Iglesias and reliever Alex Colome (they also had a minor league deal to outfielder Scott Schebler). Personally, I was conflicted by both signings. Iglesias is traditionally a good defender (he had a down 2021) with a bad bat, worse than Story in pretty much every way. Colome is a great pitcher who may fit the closer role well. He has a low-spin fastball (something that works well at Coors Field) but mainly uses a cutter. My immediate reaction to this signing was fear. The last cutter specialist the Rockies tried was Bryan Shaw of the failed “super pen” and we all know how that ended. Finally, Scott Schebler has a decent bat and might be decent coming off the bench. There is no such thing as a bad minor league deal and I certainly do not hate this one.

Those were the iffy signings, but now let’s talk about the two post-lockout signings that I really liked: Chad Kuhl and Kris Bryant. Chad Kuhl was a very good signing for the Rockies. As a fifth man in the rotation, I loved the signing. As I talked about on Twitter, his Baseball Savant page is eerily similar to that of reigning team All-Star German Marquez, albeit not as impressive. Ryan Rolison and Peter Lambert are not ready to work their way into the rotation yet, so Chad Kuhl may prove to be a very effective bridge. His base stats leave much to be desired, but if you look at the analytics, he was one of the best pitchers left on the market specifically for the Colorado Rockies. He might not be Jon Gray, but he will recoup some of the WAR lost in his absence.

I thought Kris Bryant, controversial as it was, was a good signing. The Rockies needed better offense and defense in the outfield. It was truly their biggest weakness in 2021. Kris Bryant fills that hole. People act like he is washed when he is coming off a “down” season with an impressive 124 OPS+. His career OPS+ is 132 and any defense in the outfield is better than what they have had the last few years. He will be productive, a great leader in the clubhouse, and actually wants to be there. I am begging people to give him a chance before they cast him as the next Ian Desmond. Monfort may one day have this albatross contract hanging around his neck, but for now, I am just happy to see this team actually spend money on major league talent.

Literally, as I was getting ready to publish this article, the Rockies traded fan-favorite Raimel Tapia for Randal Grichuk. With the Kris Bryant signing in mind, this makes sense. Tapia was fun to watch, but he no longer had a clear spot on the team. Grichuk is a player more traditionally built for Coors Field, a power that the Rockies haven’t really had since 2019 Charlie Blackmon. This trade was a good move, better than just letting Tap go. Grichuk is a streaky player, but he can be very fun. I look forward to seeing him hit 500-foot bombs in Coors Field.

If I were grading it, this offseason gets a B. Good free agent signings, mostly good player signings (though lost points for Gray and Story), and a good trade. That’s a certainly passable start to Bill Schmidt’s tenure as GM.

Now we move on to perhaps the most promising part of the 2022 Colorado Rockies: Pitching

2. The pitching may be the best in franchise history

Last year, the Colorado Rockies came out of the gate and the rotation fell flat on its face. Many people hyped it to be the best in franchise history and then they started slow. Now things came together in the second half and the rotation was middle of the pack in the second half last year. This year, the rotation yet again has incredible potential. German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, and Austin Gomber have all shown flashes of greatness at separate times. Marquez is an All-Star and Freeland was a Cy Young finalist. Gomber and Senzatela put up solid numbers. The only question in the rotation is if Chad Kuhl can fill the hole left by Jon Gray. I will not say he can fill that hole, but I trust him as the fifth man much more than the alternatives that the Rockies have lined up. An enormous problem with the rotation is that there is no depth past them. Rolison and Lambert are not yet ready. If an injury happens, then it is entirely possible that the rotation falls apart. As long as the rotation stays healthy, there is a lot to be hopeful for.

The surprising story of the 2021 season was just how good the bullpen became in the second half. They were bottom of the league to begin the season and then were literally top 10 once the Rockies actually performed. The bullpen has done nothing but improve this offseason, letting Chi Chi Gonzalez and Yency Almonte go was the right choice, and picking up Alex Colome should help strengthen the bullpen, letting Bard step down to setup-man (a role he was better at last year than closer). The bullpen is really a wild card, but there is a lot of potential. There is a genuine possibility that the Colorado Rockies pitching staff could be what saves the team in 2022.

The Weakness: Defense

I know I have been building up the Colorado Rockies as this wonderful team that everyone is underrating, but they do have a soft underbelly. The last part of the Coors Shield is officially gone, and the defense has become worse because of it. There is hope, but unfortunately, I can’t say that this team will have a good defense. I can say, however, that it will have good defenders. Kris Bryant is an upgrade in left field compared to years past, though probably still won’t be fantastic. Iglesias is simply not Trevor Story. Last year may have been a down year, but even his other recent performances simply don’t compare. He might be serviceable, maybe even above average, but not what fans have grown used to.

Another person to watch is Connor Joe. If he is in the outfield and not at designated hitter, he looked great with his glove last year. Blackmon and Tapia will remain bad with the glove. These are the question marks and the simply bad, but there are lights at the end of this defensive tunnel.

We’ve mentioned Brendan Rodgers a lot today. He has potential and could shine at second base. As I’ve said, he is due for a breakout year. Elias Diaz was a phenomenal catcher last year. They brought him back for the foreseeable future and hopefully he can call games just as effectively with his glove this year. C.J. Cron was again a surprisingly good first baseman in 2021. There is no reason he wouldn’t be good again this year. And finally, of course, robbed of his Gold Glove in 2021, Ryan McMahon was the best defender in the league. There is no reason that he won’t continue to be an elite third baseman in 2022.

So what is the Colorado Rockies floor? What is the ceiling?

There are a lot of assumptions that come with predicting how the baseball season will turn out. For a quick guess at how good the Rockies will be, let’s keep it simple. We will use fWAR. In theory, a single fWAR means a single win. So we should compare last year’s numbers and historical numbers to give a very rough, most likely inaccurate, guess at how much better or worse the Rockies could be in 2022. Using the expected starting lineup for 2022 and comparing that to the lineups from 2021. This data is normalized to 162 games, compared to the total position fWAR in 2021, and also the best and worst adjusted fWAR produced by each of the players. Not so surprisingly, assuming every player will have either their best or worst seasons creates a wide range. How wide? Oh, only 43 games. Let’s break it down.

Simply put, the Colorado Rockies ceiling and floor have shifted positively by about 1.5 games but had this 2022 roster played in 2021, they would have actually lost one to two games more than they did in 2021. Why? Well, the main reason is not the loss of Trevor Story, he and Kris Bryant actually had similar seasons according to fWAR, but losing Jon Gray. Kuhl simply was not as good as Gray last year. Kuhl has the potential to be good at Coors Field, but he hasn’t played there yet. Batting fWAR looks improved going into the season coming season, simply the starting pitching risks not being as potent. What are the actual numbers, though?

The 2021 Colorado Rockies finished the season 74-87 with a team position WAR of 23.5. Had every player on that squad matched their best seasons on record, the team would have gone roughly 103.5-58.5. Had that squad matched their worst seasons on record, they would have gone roughly 60-102. Those two have a median right at 82-80. Had the Rockies not had the first two months of the season that they had in 2021, this would seem like a reasonable final record for them to have ended up with.

If every player on the 2022 Colorado Rockies matches their best seasons, the team would roughly go 109-53. This seems extremely unlikely. If the 2022 squad matches their worst seasons, they would go roughly 63-99. That’s right, with these moves, unless there is a massive collapse in the starting squad, it is extremely unlikely that the team will lose 100 games like so many seem to claim online. This 2022 range’s median lies at 86-76, squarely in the playoff race. Do I believe this will happen? Almost certainly not. It shows, however, that the Rockies are far better than people give them credit for. I won’t go as far to say that they are good, but if they win less than 70 games, I will eat a napkin.

Conclusion

The Colorado Rockies went 55-53 to end the season last year after an awful first two months. The team the Rockies have today is very similar to the team that took the field every day last season. Trevor Story and Jon Gray are gone, and that truly hurts. Not all is lost though, this season could surprise.

The Colorado Rockies have made competitive offseason moves. Do I think they are a playoff team? No. They probably need at least one more relief pitcher and another outfielder (Michael Conforto, maybe?) to even think of that new Wild Card spot. They definitely aren’t winning the division, but they aren’t the worst team in baseball like so many people are trying to claim. You can build a team around Kris Bryant, and I think trading for Grichuk might be the first step to doing just that. I do not think this team is worse than last year. I may literally eat my words, but I think this is a 75-win team that has the potential, if literally everything detailed in this article goes right, to surprise come October.

Note: Data for this article was found using Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Fangraphs