5 reasons why the Colorado Rockies will not be a playoff contender

The Colorado Rockies have to learn to play decently on the road

The Colorado Rockies went 48-33 at home but they went an awful 26-54 on the road. It’s hard to believe that they will be that bad in 2022 but in 2019, they won 28 games on the road (aka not much better).

And it wasn’t just the pitching or hitting: it was nearly everyone.

The only Rockies hitter that was better on the road was Brendan Rodgers. His tOPS+ was 117 on the road, meaning that he hit 17 percent better on the road. No other Rockies hitter with at least 100 road plate appearances had a tOPS+ higher than 90.

Garrett Hampson, C.J. Cron, Yonathan Daza, and Raimel Tapia all had a tOPS+ between 60 and 70, meaning that they were 30-40 percent worse on the road with their bat. For Cron (65 tOPS+ on the road), he was still their second-best road hitter by OPS behind Rodgers.

For the starters returning to the team in 2022, the only one who had an ERA below 5.00 on the road was (oddly enough) the Colorado native: Kyle Freeland. Márquez, Senzatela, and Gomber had road ERA’s of 5.38, 5.05, and 6.32.

Freeland struggled at home (4.83 ERA) but the other three all had ERA’s of 3.97 or lower at Coors Field.

Overall, the only Rockies pitchers returning to the team in 2022 that were better on the road by tOPS+ were Freeland, Robert Stephenson, Carlos Estévez, Tyler Kinley, and Ben Bowden. Bowden struggled both at home and on the road, though (6.00+ ERA for both).

In other words, when you have five players who play well on the road when you have 26 players, you aren’t going to be a good team.

The Colorado Rockies play in the NL … and play in the NL West

Despite there being an extra playoff team in 2022, the Colorado Rockies still reside in the NL West. The Los Angeles Dodgers are superior to the Rockies in nearly every facet. Just look at their lineup with Freddie Freeman now. They seriously could have an All-Star at every position.

The Giants won’t be as good as they were in 2021 but they won 107 games. They could still drop 17 games and still be a 90-win team. The Rockies would have to gain 16 games to be a 90-win team.

The Padres do have to weather the Fernando Tatis, Jr. injury but they have a much better manager now in Bob Melvin. They almost certainly won’t be as bad as they were in 2021, when they went 79-83.

The D-Backs won’t be a good team but they also won’t lose 110 games again.

As things stand with talent that has been shown at the MLB level, the Colorado Rockies are no better than a fourth-place team.

A fourth-place team can make the playoffs in 2022 (e.g. the 2021 Toronto Blue Jays were a fourth-place team but they won 91 games so under the 2022 playoff structure, they would have been in the playoffs too) but are they better than one of the Cardinals or Brewers and two of the Braves, Mets, and Phillies? No, they are not.

They would have to show more talent with their current roster … leading to our last point.

The Colorado Rockies have to have about 10 players step up big time

The Colorado Rockies believe that their players have the potential to be All-Stars or close to All-Stars. In 2022, they have to show it for the team to be a playoff contender. Here are some (not even all but just some) of the returning players that have to step up.

Ryan McMahon has had the same exact OPS (.779) in the last two full seasons. He has to be closer to .850 (really, even higher) for the Rockies to take a step further offensively.

Charlie Blackmon can’t have a slugging percentage of .411. They need him to be around where he was in 2018 (.506 SLG).

Elias Díaz has to maintain what he did from June through the rest of the season.

Brendan Rodgers has to be healthy for a full season and produce at least at the level he did in 2021 (102 OPS+).

Sam Hilliard has to be able to get on base at least at a .320 clip, not .287 as he has since the start of 2020. He also can’t be hitting .213. He needs to hit .250/.320/.450 in the lineup to get an everyday day job.

Connor Joe had an OPS+ of 117 in 211 plate appearances (179 ABs). Can he do that over a full season?

Germán Márquez has to become an ace. An ace is not a pitcher with a 4.40 ERA, a 108 ERA+, and an ERA of 6.12 after the All-Star break.

Márquez was the only Rockies starter to make 30+ starts for them. He, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, and Austin Gomber have to make 120+ starts for the team.

Health, in general, is something that the rotation and team will have to have because they don’t have the depth to weather it.

The Rockies can control their destiny in 2022 but it will take a lot to get to the playoffs. Teams like the Dodgers make it look easy but it is never easy to make it to the playoffs and the Rockies won’t make the playoffs if they don’t do these five things.