FanGraphs, PECOTA project Colorado Rockies as NL’s worst team

On Tuesday, FanGraphs released their playoff odds predictions and Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections on regular season records. Both outlets believe that the Colorado Rockies are the worst team in the National League.

FanGraphs and PECOTA do not like the 2022 Colorado Rockies

According to FanGraphs, the Colorado Rockies only have a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, which is the worst in the National League and tied for the worst in the entire sport with the Baltimore Orioles. That 0.2 percent chance is for being one of the three NL Wild Card teams as they give the Rockies a 0.0 chance of winning the NL West.

Here is what the rest of the NL West looks like with record, their chance of making the playoffs, and their chance of making the World Series.

1. Dodgers: 96-66, 95.7 percent chance of making the playoffs, 14.9 percent chance of winning the World Series
2. Padres: 90-72, 78 percent, 5.3 percent
3. Giants: 85-77, 49.2 percent, 2.0 percent
4. D-Backs: 70-92, 1.1 percent, 0.0 percent

Their projections also believe that they will go 65.5 and 96.5. Depending on whether they go 66-96 or 65-97, both records would be among the worst in team history. The worst team in franchise history is the 2012 Rockies, who went 64-98. The 2014 Rockies are second-worst at 66-96.

PECOTA paints a slightly rosier picture but not much. It projects that the Rockies will go 67-95, but that is still the worst prediction for any team in the National League.

They have their chance of making the playoffs at 0.4 percent, making them the only team in the NL with playoff odds being lower than one percent.

Only two teams have worse playoff odds and regular season records with PECOTA: the Baltimore Orioles and the Oakland A’s.

In 2021, the Colorado Rockies outperformed all projections but still only went 74-87. That came as a result of the team going 55-53 in their final 108 games (from May 30).

The Rockies will have to weather the loss of Trevor Story from their 74-win team but if that 108 game stretch is any indication, the Rockies could outperform expectations again.

Even if they outperform the win-loss record, the Rockies’ chance at making the playoffs is negligible, at best, which is what both of them predicted. Unless the Rockies make some huge moves before the season starts, they will not be making the playoffs for the fourth straight season.