Colorado Rockies 2022 player projections: Lucas Gilbreath

Entering the 2021 season, if you would have said that Lucas Gilbreath was, arguably, the best reliever on the Colorado Rockies and one of their best pitchers overall in 2021, the response you likely would have received was “who is that?”

That’s because Lucas Gilbreath had never pitched above Advanced-A ball entering 2021. However, with the lack of left-handed relievers and with a lot of minor leaguers leaving baseball after the 2020 season, the Rockies promoted Gilbreath to the majors on May 1.

He struggled in his first five appearances in the majors (10.13 ERA) but he was spectacular after that. In his final 42 appearances, Gilbreath had an ERA of 2.41, a FIP of 3.55, and an opponent slash line of .184/.294/.257. He was even better after the All-Star break as he had a 0.96 ERA in 29 second half appearances with a FIP of 2.99, and an opponent slash line of .170/.270/.214.

Gilbreath, a native of the Denver suburb of Westminster, showed that he he can pitch well at altitude, as at Coors Field, he pitched to a 2.42 ERA. Batters hit .173/.280/.309 off of him at Coors Field.

He had a 0.2 fWAR and a 0.9 rWAR. That rWAR is fourth-highest among Rockies pitchers still on their active roster and the highest among relievers.

But projections are not great on Lucas Gilbreath for the 2022 season

Despite Lucas Gilbreath’s success for the Colorado Rockies in 2021, ZiPS projects that he will have a 5.46 ERA in 2022 with a 91 ERA+ and an fWAR of 0.5.

As with any projections, they have a wide margin of error but considering that a) Gilbreath is a reliever b) he didn’t pitch above Advanced-A ball before 2021 c) he didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the minor league season being canceled, and d) he was a reliever for the first time in 2021, these projections have a very wide margin of error.

Since 2022 will be Gilbreath’s second year in the league, will he have a sophomore slump? Probably. It could be for a few outings or it could be for the season but a lot of pitchers in the majors have a sophomore slump and especially relievers.

Relievers are a fickle brand of player, as Rockies fans have seen plenty of times in recent years but given Gilbreath’s background being from Colorado and pitching well at altitude, Gilbreath will likely be better than the projections.

He may not have a sub-1.00 for half of the season but he should be better than a pitcher with a 5.50 ERA.