Colorado Rockies 2022 player predictions: Elias Díaz

We continue our 2022 Colorado Rockies player predictions series with catcher Elias Díaz.

Díaz had an awful start to the 2021 season as he was hitting just .124/.191/.185 through June 1 (28 games). After that, Díaz hit .284/.348/.553 in 78 games. That offensive output in that span makes it, arguably, the best offensive (roughly) half-season span in Colorado Rockies history by a catcher.

It also made him the 4th-best offensive catcher from June 2 on by wRC+ behind only Will Smith, Salvador Perez, and Buster Posey. That offensive surge made Díaz the everyday catcher and it also helped him get a three-year extension for $14.5 million from the Rockies.

Overall on the season, he hit .246/.310/.464 with 18 homers and 44 RBI in 106 games. He had an OPS+ of 96, a wRC+ of 92, a 2.2 rWAR, and a 1.6 fWAR. Those WAR numbers were 4th and tied for 4th among position players. The players ahead of him were Trevor Story, Ryan McMahon, and C.J. Cron. With fWAR, Brendan Rodgers was tied with him.

2022 projections for Colorado Rockies catcher Elias Díaz are more bearish than bullish

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections for Elias Díaz don’t view him as favorably as his 2021 season was, particularly in the power department. It envisions roughly the same amount of playing time (372 plate appearances in 2021 and 360 PA’s projected in 2022).

ZiPS projects 12 homers, 42 RBI, a .261/.319/.429 slash line, and an OPS+ of 87. It projects an fWAR of 0.6, which means a decrease in power and defense as well.

Defensively, 2021 was Díaz’s best season, by far. He had 9 DRS when he had -25 DRS in his career before that. He was also 19th among the 59 qualifying catchers in 2021 with Statcast’s pitch framing metric Runs Extra Strikes with 2 (0 is league average).

Considering how his offensive surge came in the latter part of the season, it stands to reason that he will be more of that player in 2022 than he was in April and May. However, he only has one season in which he had a better season than he did in 2021 and that was in 2018 when he had nearly 100 fewer plate appearances.

He also played in 106 games in 2021, which is his career-high in parts of seven seasons in the majors. That’s part of the reason why the Rockies will still need to have a decent backup catcher, whether it’s with Dom Nuñez or with someone else.

Especially considering the current state of offensive catchers in baseball (especially with Buster Posey’s retirement), Díaz could be one of the better catchers in baseball by the end of the 2022 season if he can repeat his second half of 2021.