9 trade targets from the Cincinnati Reds for the Colorado Rockies

The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies are two teams that, by and large, are in the same boat. They both are small-market teams that are, in all likelihood, not going to be playoff contenders in 2022 and both have stadiums that are extremely hitter-friendly (Cincinnati for homers and Colorado for extra-base hits).

However, the Reds are in an obvious period of regression as they look unlikely to re-sign outfielder Nick Castellanos (who the Rockies could really use), let their best player by WAR in 2021 (Wade Miley) leave to join a division rival (the Cubs) on waivers, and trading catcher Tucker Barnhart to Detroit.

The Rockies, however, believe that with a few moves when the lockout is over, they will be able to be contenders for the postseason in 2022.

Frankly, that will take a lot to happen but if they wanted to swing one trade with a team to address a slew of different issues for the team, the Rockies should pull off another trade with the Reds.

The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies have been favorites of each other for trades

In the last calendar year, in the last 14 months, the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies have made two trades and the Rockies and Reds exchanged Ashton Goudeau via waivers twice in 2021 (the Reds claimed him from the Rockies and then the Rockies purchased Goudeau three months later).

Additionally, in years past, the two teams have been trade favorites. In fact, in Rockies history (1993-present), the Reds have been the Rockies’ most frequent trade partner as they have made 17 trades/purchases.

The most frequent period was from October 1999 (the Rockies trading Dante Bichette to the Redlegs) through December 2001. In that 26 month period, the Rockies and Reds made six trades.

So another trade when the lockout ends is definitely not out of the question.

Here are nine trade candidates from the Cincinnati Reds for the Colorado Rockies.

Cincinnati Reds infielder Kyle Farmer could help the Colorado Rockies bench

Cincinnati Reds infielder Kyle Farmer could help the Colorado Rockies bench as he is very versatile.

Farmer, 31, played in 147 games in 2021 and he was Cincinnati’s primary shortstop. He hit .263/.316/.416 with an OPS+ of 86. He had 16 homers, 63 RBI, and 22 doubles. Defensively at shortstop, he had 2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).

However, prior to 2021, he had never played more than 97 games at the major league level in the majors and never had an OPS+ above 74.

But the Rockies could show particular interest in Farmer because of his versatility. The Rockies have had a catcher that can play the infield or vice versa for each year of the past decade up until 2021. Farmer has catching experience (363 games between the majors and minors) and he also has extensive playing time at third, second, first, and a few games in left field as well.

Contractually, he is entering his first year of arbitration so his salary will start to increase. Depending on whether or not free agency will happen after six years (as it is currently) or five (as has been discussed in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations), the Rockies would have two or three years of control with Farmer.

Cincinnati Reds infielder Mike Moustakas could also have a bounceback 2022 season for the Colorado Rockies

Like Eugenio Suárez, Cincinnati Reds infielder Mike Moustakas could also have a bounceback 2022 season for the Colorado Rockies.

In 2021, Moustakas, 33, struggled with a heel injury, which was the cause for his drop in production. He only played in 62 games and he only had six homers and 22 RBI with a slash line of .208/.282/.372 and an OPS+ of 66.

However, Moustakas was an above-average MLB hitter in each of the previous six seasons.

In 2020, he played in 44 games and he hit eight homers and had 27 RBI. He had a slash line of .230/.331/.468 with an OPS+ of 105. In 2019 for Milwaukee, he played in 143 games and he had 30 doubles, 35 homers, 87 RBI, a .254/.329/.516 slash line, and an OPS+ of 114.

From 2017 through 2019, he had an average of 34 homers and 89 RBI with an OPS+ of 113. That’s the production that the Colorado Rockies need in their lineup.

Moustakas is primarily a third baseman but he can also play second and first base as well.

Contractually, Moustakas is entering the third year of a four-year contract. He is owed $16 and $18 million for the next two years (with $500,000 bonuses in each season) with a team option for $20 million for 2024. With that, the Reds could look to unload him to get rid of his salary.

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jesse Winker could provide the Colorado Rockies with an outfield bat

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jesse Winker had a career year on offense in 2021 and the Reds could look to sell high on him and the Colorado Rockies would be a fit.

Winker, 28, hit .305/.394/.556 with 32 doubles, 24 homers, and 71 RBI with an OPS+ of 140. In 2020, he played in 54 games and he hit 12 homers and had 23 RBI with a slash line of .255/.388/.544 and an OPS+ of 139.

The problem for Winker is that he is frequently injured. In this aspect, he is very similar to former Rockies outfielder David Dahl. Both of them can play all three outfield spots and they have shown that they can be All-Stars but both are frequently injured.

Dahl only had one season where he played in 100 games (and it was exactly 100) in the majors but Winker has had two seasons. However, he has never played more than 113 in a season in the majors. That 113 came in 2021 but he only played in one game after August 15.

Also, as his on-base percentage shows, Winker walks more than Dahl as Winker’s career on-base percentage of .385.

Winker is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility so, if the Rockies were to trade for him, they would either have one or two years of control, depending on the results of the upcoming CBA.

When healthy, Winker is exactly what the Rockies need: an outfielder who would be a great power (and on-base) bat for them.

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Tyler Naquin could also give the Colorado Rockies an outfield bat

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Tyler Naquin also could provide the Colorado Rockies a bat in the outfield.

Naquin, who turns 31 a few weeks after Opening Day, played in 127 games for the Reds in 2021 and he had 24 doubles, 19 homers, and 70 RBI. He hit .270/.333/.477 and had an OPS+ of 105.

The thing with Naquin is that, ideally, he would be a bench bat.

Before 2021, the only time he played in more than 100 games in a season was in 2016, which was his rookie season with Cleveland. Additionally, since his rookie season, he has only had one season with an OPS+ above 76 was in 2019, when in 89 games for Cleveland, he had an OPS+ of 103.

Defensively, at least in 2020 and 2021, he was not great as he had -9 DRS. However, he had good defensive numbers from 2017 through 2019. He can also play all three outfield spots.

So, he has his pros and cons but if you look at his most comparable players, the player that’s #2 is the aforementioned David Dahl and when you look at their stats, they are very comparable.

Naquin beats Dahl in the career OPS+ department (101 to 95) but Dahl has had higher highs than Naquin. Both are average defensive outfielders with a few seasons above average and a few seasons below. Neither one of them has had a ton of experience playing in 100+ games in a season.

However, Naquin doesn’t have the upside that Dahl does when he’s healthy. But Naquin has been healthier than Dahl.

Naquin is entering his final season of arbitration.

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Nick Senzel could be a reclamation project for the Colorado Rockies

Nick Senzel was our pick from the Cincinnati Reds for the Colorado Rockies for just one trade target from each team back in October and we chose him for a few reasons.

As we said back then, in most of the Rockies trades with the Redlegs, they have been reclamation projects, like last offseason’s trade that sent Robert Stephenson to the Rockies and Jeff Hoffman to the Reds. Thus far, Stephenson has worked out better for the Rockies (3.13 ERA in 44 games with a 3.63 FIP) but Hoffman pitched better for the Reds once he was in a relief role (5.20 ERA, 5.30 FIP in 11 starts and 3.54 ERA, 5.03 FIP in 20 relief appearances).

He has played in parts of three seasons in the majors but has been injured frequently. That’s why he hasn’t lived up to his prospect hype, as Senzel was ranked as high as the #6 prospect in all of baseball before the 2019 season, by MLB.com.

In 2018, MLB Pipeline ranked his tools (from 20 to 80):

Hit: 70 | Power: 55 | Run: 55 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 60

The Rockies may like him for his versatility as he has extensive playing time at second, third, short, and center but also a few games at first and left as well.

Senzel is pre-arbitration eligible as he has two years and change in his career.

Cincinnati Reds starter Luis Castillo would be a great rotation option for the Colorado Rockies

Cincinnati Reds starter Luis Castillo has been one of the best starting pitchers in the last three seasons but there have been plenty of rumors surrounding him this offseason. He would be a perfect fit for the Colorado Rockies

Castillo, 29, did not get much run support from the Redlegs’ offense as led the NL in losses with 16 despite a sub-4.00 ERA. He had a 3.98 ERA in a league-leading 33 starts with an ERA+ of 120. He had a FIP of 3.75, a WHIP of 1.364, an average of 3.6 walks and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings, and a rWAR of 4.7.

He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season and he had a 3.21 ERA with a 2.65 FIP, a 153 ERA+, a 1.229 WHIP, and an average of 3.1 walks and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

In 2019, he made 32 starts and he had a 3.40 ERA (137 ERA+) with a 3.70 FIP, a 1.143 WHIP, and he averaged 3.7 walks and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He was an All-Star in 2019 as well.

The thing that would make him attractive for the Rockies. As Rockies fans know, the Rockies have made themselves a decent rotation in recent years out of having pitchers that have high groundball rates. The Rockies had three in the top 17 in the last three seasons among starters with at least 300 innings pitched. Luis Castillo has the second-highest groundball rate in that same span at 56.4 percent. For comparison, the highest on the Rockies was Antonio Senzatela at 52.1 percent

Castillo has two years left before free agency, at least with the current CBA.

Cincinnati Reds starter Sonny Gray would also be a great rotation option for the Colorado Rockies

Like Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Sonny Gray would be a great fit for the Colorado Rockies.

Gray, 32, has had three good seasons in Cincinnati after he struggled a bit with the New York Yankees. In 2021, Gray (who is not related to former Rockies starter Jon Gray) made 26 starts and he had a 4.19 ERA (114 ERA+). He had a 3.99 FIP, a 1.219 WHIP, an average of 3.3 walks and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings, and a 3.4 rWAR.

In 2020, he made 11 starts and had a 3.70 ERA. In addition, he had a FIP of 3.05, an ERA+ of 133, a WHIP of 1.214, and an average of 4.2 walks and 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

He had a fantastic season in 2019 as he was All-Star and came in 7th in NL Cy Young Award voting. He made 31 starts and had an ERA of 2.87 with an ERA+ of 162. He had a FIP of 3.42, a WHIP of 1.084, an average of 3.5 walks and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and a WAR of 5.9.

Like Castillo, Gray is a great groundball pitcher. Since 2019, his groundball rate is 49.5 percent, according to FanGraphs. Among starting pitchers with at least 300 innings, that rate is 10th-highest.

Gray is signed for $10.16 million for the 2022 season and there is a $12 million team option for 2023 before he becomes a free agent.

Cincinnati Reds starter Tyler Mahle is also a fit for the Colorado Rockies

Tyler Mahle is another a fit from the Cincinnati Reds rotation for the Colorado Rockies.

Mahle, 27, had a very good season for the Reds. He made 33 starts and he had an ERA of 3.75 with an ERA+ of 127, FIP of 3.80, a WHIP of 1.233, and an average of 3.2 walks and 10.5 strikeouts. He had a rWAR of 5.2.

In 2020, Mahle made 10 appearances (nine starts) and he pitched to a 3.59 ERA with a 137 ERA+, a 3.88 FIP, a WHIP of 1.154, an average of four walks and 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He had an rWAR of 1.0.

However, prior to 2020, Mahle had a spotty track record. In 52 starts from 2017 (his rookie year) through 2019, he made 52 starts and he had an ERA of 4.88 with a FIP of 4.86 and an ERA+ of 91.

Unlike Castillo and Gray, Mahle is not a big groundball pitcher as his groundball rate since 2019 (among starters with 300 or more innings) is 37th among 60 starters.

Mahle is entering his second year of arbitration so the Rockies would have one or two years of control, depending on how the new CBA determines when free agency would be.

Our Colorado Rockies trade target series continues through the National League Central with the reigning NL Central Champion Milwaukee Brewers up next.