What to make of the ZiPS projections for the Colorado Rockies

2 of 3

CINCINNATI, OH – JUNE 11: Brendan Rodgers #7 of the Colorado Rockies is congratulated by his teammates after scoring a run during the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on June 11, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cincinnati defeated Colorado 11-5. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) /

On Tuesday, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections for the Colorado Rockies were released on FanGraphs and, as you probably expect, the Rockies are not projected to be the best team in baseball. In fact, far from it.

As always, they are projections and outside factors will definitely mean some things don’t happen the way a projection system would think (injuries, trades, free agent signings, being sent to the minors, etc.) but it still doesn’t negate the fact that the Colorado Rockies are one of the worst teams in baseball and it’s for reasons they shouldn’t be.

FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections for the Colorado Rockies are very bleak

Any Colorado Rockies fan or observer that is objective knows that their offense is, quite frankly, one of the worst in the entire sport. Their lineup has been littered with below-average MLB hitters for quite some time.

Even in their Wild Card years of 2017 and 2018, they had an offense that was in the bottom five in baseball and an offense that was in the bottom ten in baseball.

When you take that into consideration plus the fact that they practically gave their best offensive player, Nolan Arenado, to the St. Louis Cardinals, the Rockies had an awful offense in 2021. The 2022 ZiPS projections predict nothing different.

In fact, as Szymborski notes, the Steamer projections for depth charts “has the Colorado lineup a shocking five wins worse than the next-worst team, Cincinnati; the Reds are closer to the 17th-ranked Phillies than the Rockies.”

For ZiPS, they include every player on their last team if they haven’t been signed or traded elsewhere so Trevor Story is on the Rockies in the 2022 ZiPS.

Even with Story, they have two players that are projected to be above league average in OPS+: Story and C.J. Cron. Cron, of course, was Colorado’s best hitter in 2021 with a 130 OPS+.

In Szymborski’s explanation, he says that Cron was “an uncharacteristically clever signing by the Rockies. They actually sought out a type of player who may now be undervalued by the market generally: a league-average first baseman. The problem is that league average is still ‘just’ league average, not something that is the foundation of a solid offense.”

Colorado Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon (24) gestures as he rounds the bases on a solo home run in the second inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /

Are Szymborski and ZiPS too harsh on the Colorado Rockies? You can contend that they are, considering the Rockies won 74 games, which is actually an improvement on their winning percentages in 2019 and 2020. However, at least in this area, Szymborski is absolutely correct.

Cron had a career year in 2021 and he’s going to be 32 in a few days. When Story leaves, Cron will be, by far, the Rockies best hitter. On a good team and with Cron’s projections (a 113 OPS+), he is probably a #6 hitter.

Also, Szymborski was absolutely correct with this.

With the talent they developed, there was *no reason* the Rockies couldn't become the next Astros or Indians. Instead, they look like a team that'll have a couple wild card relevant seasons and then meander off into the mediocrity mire meaninglessly.
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) April 9, 2018

The Rockies ended up being relevant in the Wild Card hunt for a couple of seasons and then they meandered off into mediocrity. Not bad enough where they are a 100+ loss team (because of the pitching) but just good enough to not divert their course of sticking with their current players.

Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers have the most potential for growth on the team offensively but outside of those two and Cron, the Rockies offense is bleak.

Charlie Blackmon isn’t getting any younger and he is hitting for less power. Can Connor Joe replicate his 211 plate appearance production from 2021 into a 600 plate appearance season in 2022?

That’s only one question with a lineup full of them.

Jun 23, 2021; Seattle, Washington, USA; Colorado Rockies starter German Marquez (48) delivers a pitch during the fourth inning of a game against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports /

On the pitching front, the Colorado Rockies have built a decent starting pitching staff. It’s by no means elite but it is pretty good. The problem will be what production do they get out of their fifth starter and their depth.

As is the case with the entire team, they have absolutely no depth. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: If you have to get a spot starter (Ryan Feltner) from Double-A because you don’t trust your Triple-A guys, that’s a massive problem. In 2021, the only starter that wasn’t on the IL at some point was Germán Márquez and some of them were on the IL at the same time, which is why Feltner was called up in September.

The bullpen is and will continue to be a problem until other issues are addressed with the team. As Szymborski says, the bullpen is a cheap issue for the Rockies and that’s better than an expensive issue (Ian Desmond, Wade Davis, Daniel Murphy, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, etc.).

Next. 5 trade targets for the Rox from the Mets. dark

They do have some pieces, as GM Bill Schmidt has said, but he believes that they just “need more pieces.” In theory, that’s true but to be a contender in 2022 especially with the current lockout, they need far too many players to step up and too many “pieces” in free agency or a trade to be close to playoff contention in 2022.

Home / Colorado Rockies News