3 trade targets for the Colorado Rockies from the Houston Astros
The Houston Astros are in a very different spot the in the baseball world than the Colorado Rockies. They, despite the sign stealing scandal of 2017, have made it to the ALCS in each of the last two seasons since they received their punishment from MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred and made it to the World Series in 2021.
That makes it five straight seasons where the Astros have at least made it to the ALCS and in three of those five seasons, they made it to the World Series.
The most likely scenario this offseason is a former Colorado Rockies player joining the Houston Astros
They will be adding to their roster and not subtracting this offseason. In fact, the most likely scenario between a member of the Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros changing uniforms is with shortstop Trevor Story.
The Astros desperately need a shortstop now that Carlos Correa will likely be on his way out the door since the Astros reportedly aren’t willing to go more than six years for any contract on a player.
Currently, Jeremy Pena tops the depth chart for them at shortstop. While he is the Astros #4 prospect and Baseball Prospectus ranked him as #82 prospect entering the 2021 season, he has only played 30 games above Advanced-A ball. That’s not a shortstop that the best team in the American League can bank on right now.
Houston checks all the boxes for Story, or at least the five boxes that he revealed publicly in a future home for him. That’s why the Astros were at the top of our list of the top five remaining destinations for the former Rockies shortstop.
However, from a Colorado Rockies buying perspective, there are still three players that the Colorado Rockies should look at as a trade target from the Astros 40-man roster.
Houston Astros reliever Phil Maton should be someone that the Colorado Rockies look at
If you just look at ERA, Houston Astros reliever Phil Maton does not look like a good reliever. He’s got a 4.76 ERA in parts of five seasons in the majors with the Astros, Cleveland, and San Diego but other numbers suggest that he has been a victim of some bad luck. Perhaps, he could be of some help in the Colorado Rockies bullpen.
Since 2020, Maton, who turns 29 toward the end of Spring Training, has appeared in 88 games of relief and he has an ERA of 4.69. However, he has a FIP of 3.19 in that span with nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings. In 2020, despite having a 4.57 ERA, he was in the top ten percent in barrel rate (only 1.9 percent), average exit velocity (82.7 MPH), xSLG, xwOBA, hard hit percentage, strikeout percentage, and xERA.
Additionally, Maton has been fantastic in the postseason in the last two years. Between Cleveland and Houston in 2020 and 2021, he posted a 1.15 ERA in 14 postseason appearances.
Maton is eligible for arbitration for the second time this off-season and he is projected to make around $1.4 million. Under the current CBA, he will be eligible for arbitration for the final time next off-season for becoming a free agent during the 2024–2025 offseason so depending on how the new CBA turns out, the Rockies would have two years of control on him.
Houston Astros reliever Ryne Stanek is another bullpen option for the Colorado Rockies to consider
Back in October when we looked at one trade target for the Colorado Rockies to look at from each and every MLB team, reliever Ryne Stanek was our pick for the Houston Astros.
Stanek, 30, appeared in 72 games for the Astros in 2021 and had a 3.42 ERA. He had an ERA+ of 126, and FIP 4.11, a WHIP of 1.215, and a strikeout rate of nearly 11 batters per nine innings. His biggest problem was his walk rate as he walked nearly 5 batters per nine innings.
In 2020, he pitched for the Marlins but he was injured for part of the season so he only appeared in nine games but in 2019, he split the season between the Marlins and the Tampa Bay rays and he had an ERA of 3.97 and 63 games (27 “starts”). He was a “starter” because he was an opener for Tampa and, really, he was the first opener ever.
He did well in the opener role in 2019 but he also did well in it in 2018 for Tampa as he had a 2.98 ERA in 55 games, 29 of which were as an opener. He had an ERA+ a 138, a FIP of 3.55, a WHIP of 1.085 and a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Other than the walkway being elevated, the Rockies may be concerned with his ground ball and flyball rate as his ground ball rate is only at 33 percent in his career while his flyball rate is nearly 48 percent and it is career, which is more than 15 percent above league average
Like Maton, under the current CBA, he is eligible for arbitration for the second time this off-season and he will get roughly $2.1 million in arbitration this off-season. Under the current CBA, the Rockies would have two years of control on him.
Houston Astros closer Ryan Pressly is someone the Colorado Rockies should really consider
Ryan Pressly has been the closer for the Houston Astros for each of the last two seasons and he has a long track record of being a good reliever, which would be good for the Colorado Rockies.
In 2021, Pressly, who just turned 33, appeared in 64 games and had an ERA of 2.25 with 26 saves. He had a 191 ERA+, a fantastic FIP of 2.06, an even better WHIP of 0.969, a great walk rate (1.8 BB/9), and a phenomenal strikeout rate (11.4 K/9). That season earned him his second career All-Star nod.
He was an All-Star in 2019 as well when he had a 2.32 ERA on the season in 55 appearances and a 200 ERA+. He had a 2.66 FIP, a 0.902 WHIP, and a 6:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Overall in his nine seasons in the majors, he has had an ERA+ of 106 or better in all but one season (2017 with Minnesota) and since 2018, he hasn’t had an ERA+ below 2020’s 131.
On top of all of that, since 2019 (among relievers with at least 100 innings pitched), his 52.5 percent groundball rate is 23rd-highest in baseball. The Rockies bullpen corps doesn’t have anyone even in the top 65.
The biggest problems are that Pressly is owed $10 million as his vesting option vested in September and with the Astros in contention, Pressly is the least likely of these three relievers to be traded. However, he is a free agent after the 2022 so that is a more likely avenue for the Rockies.
Our trade target series continues with the Los Angeles Angels on deck.