Colorado Rockies: Finding under-the-radar free agent hitters

Brad Miller, UTIL, 32 years old on Opening Day

Starting off with some thump, Miller has rediscovered himself after a performance decline in 2017 and 2018. Now, since 2019, Miller has been worth 3.0 fWAR over 718 plate appearances.

The nine-year veteran primarily achieved this by reducing his chase rate and becoming a more selective hitter, even if his strikeout rate doesn’t reflect that.

From 2015 to 2018, Miller chased 28.9%, 29.2%, 25.8%, and 31.2% of pitches, respectively. Starting in 2019, Miller has chased 24.6%, 23.7%, and 24.2% of pitches, respectively. That’s a significant difference that’s allowed Miller’s always plus power to show up more.

Speaking of his power, Miller’s average exit velocity ranked in the 91st percentile in baseball. That elite power led him to 20 home runs in roughly three-quarters of a full season worth of playing time. The raw power suggests a 30 home run barrage is possible, if not likely.

Where Miller really sells himself is with his patience and walk rate. Since the start of 2020 (548 PAs), the former Philly utility man has walked 12.8% of the time which would have paced all Rockies regulars.

To complete his profile, Miller still has speed at 32 and will likely be an average runner for another year or two. This has enabled his defensive range to stay intact.

Could Brad Miller fit with the Colorado Rockies?

The former second-round pick played RF, LF, 3B, 2B, and 1B this year, with most of his time spent at 1B. His time at 2B was promising and the Rockies could sign Miller with plans to play him in tandem with Brendan Rodgers up the middle.

Bill Schmidt has stated they plan to use Rodgers at 2B but, with a lack of quality SS options on the market, it makes sense to add at 2B and let Rodgers man SS for a year or two. Miller can also take innings at other positions when needed.

Coming off a strong year, Miller will command a reasonable MLB contract with multiple seasons and a fair amount of cash.

A two-year deal with a mutual option for a third season could be ideal for both sides. A mutual option buyout increases the guaranteed annual value of the contract while spreading the money out.

Annual value in the $10-12 million range seems about right for what teams can expect from Miller going forward.

Mark Canha, OF, 33 years old on Opening Day

Mark Canha has history with the Colorado Rockies

Following up power with finesse, Canha has been one of the more underrated players across the sport, with many fans still unfamiliar with the former Rockies’ Rule 5 pick.

Since 2018, Canha has been worth 10.4 fWAR, ranking 48th in the league among hitters. While he’s regressed some since a monstrous 2019 season, Canha remains a rock-solid hitter.

In a league where power is king, Canha knows how to get by without selling out for long balls.

Though his average exit velocity ranks in the 19th percentile, Canha knows how to manipulate his barrel. His max exit velocity is above average, showing he can rip it when he wants to, and his sweet spot percentage of 36.1 ranked 38th in the league.

More importantly, Canha has an exceptionally impressive plate discipline profile. Here are some of Canha’s plate discipline ranks:

Outside the zone swing %: 12th (Juan Soto is first)
Swing %: 10th (Juan Soto first)
Swinging strike %: 26th (David Fletcher first)

To put these numbers into baseball terms, Canha is extremely selective and swings and misses far less frequently than the average hitter. This translates into the 20th-highest walk rate in the league, a figure that could boost the Rockies’ OBP.

Canha, at 32, isn’t as fast as he once was, but his sprint speed has remained consistent for years and he’s still an above-average runner.

As a result, Canha can admirably handle center field and offers substantial value in a corner. He recorded 2 Outs Above Average (OAA) in both left field and center field in 2021.

Canha and Miller come with similar contractual situations. Both had respectable 2021 seasons and want to cash in on a final multi-year deal. Canha might cost a smidge more than Miller given the Oakland star offers more bonafide defensive value.

Canha may also command a third guaranteed year, given that his offensive skillset is less variable.

Adding both of these hitters would give the Rockies one of the more disciplined lineups they’ve had in years and infuse some much-needed home run pop.

With those two potential targets out of the way, our focus turns to a trio of players worth bringing in on minor league deals. All three possess distinct upsides and have the talent to fill out a final bench spot.

Given the Rockies’ recent success discovering Daniel Bard, Elias Diaz, C.J. Cron, and Connor Joe on minor league deals, dipping back into this pool seems wise.

Jake Marisnick, OF, 32 years old on Opening Day

You could argue that since Juan Pierre in the early 2000s, the Rockies haven’t had an elite defender in center field. Given their home ballpark, the Rockies should be clamoring for a rangy outfielder.

That’s just what Jake Marisnick is. Since 2017, Marisnick is 24th among all outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), despite having less than half the innings of most players above him.

In that same span, OAA ranked Marisnick 13th among all outfielders. With more playing time, he could easily be near or at the top of both stats.

In 2021, Marisnick showed he still has roadrunner wheels, placing in the 90th percentile for sprint speed.

While he’s been inconsistent at the plate his entire career, Marisnick has some pop. Between 2017 and 2019, he recorded double-digit home runs every year despite accumulating only about half a season’s worth of plate appearances.

Jake Marisnick is likely a well-below-average hitter, but perhaps on par or better than the Colorado Rockies’ depth

The key is his difference-making defensive ability and speed. Those skills could earn Marisnick an MLB deal.

Even then, he should be on the Rockies’ radar. A heavily incentivized deal that pays the former Astro for games played could be an appealing option for both sides.

Ronald Guzman, 1B, 27 years old on Opening Day

I’d like to think Ronald Guzman could be this year’s Greg Bird for the Colorado Rockies

Whether or not he makes an MLB roster in 2022, Guzman brings quality depth to an organization.

Pre-2018, Baseball Prospectus ranked Guzman as the 94th-best prospect in baseball. Later that year, the Rangers gave the mammoth first baseman his first taste of the bigs. He took that opportunity and ran, asserting himself as a part of Texas’ future.

Unfortunately, he stagnated during his sophomore season before losing out on playing time in 2020 to Todd Frazier and Danny Santana. Then, in 2021, the Rangers opted to invest almost all their first base time in Nate Lowe. Guzman was then outrighted following the season.

Frankly, Guzman didn’t get the best hand dealt to him and operated on a short leash. Between his mammoth raw power (112 mph career max exit velocity) and patient approach, the chance for a break-out is better than most.

Guzman made a couple of brief appearances in left field for the Rangers and, despite his limited athleticism, if he can acquire some versatility, there’s intriguing upside as a righty-mashing role player.

Jason Martin, OF, 26 years old on Opening Day

Another player formerly with the Rangers, it’s clear that new GM Chris Young is eagerly clearing roster space in preparation for a busy offseason.

Could the Texas Rangers’ mentality help the Colorado Rockies?

Signed by Texas as a minor league free agent last year, Martin busted down the door in AAA after posting an OPS of .930, headlined by a 17.4 walk percentage.

The former eighth-round pick went on to hit six home runs with the Rangers in 58 games. That’s not a bad pace for a part-time player.

Unfortunately, Martin’s walk rate did not translate to the big leagues, although that’s not uncommon for a player trying to aggressively prove himself. His OBP ended up sitting at just .248.

Martin would not be a flashy addition. However, between a little power potential, promising approach, better than average speed, and the ability to man center field, the still-young Martin has some tools to work with.