Colorado Rockies top prospect season review: The Depth

A couple of weeks ago, we broke down the performances and outlook of the top 16 prospects in the Rockies system, based on my personal list.

This time, we’ll pick up and run through prospects 17-51. The rest of the top 30 will get a more thorough write-up, with 31-51 getting a quick-hit style analysis.

An unfamiliar name to most fans of the Colorado Rockies is Prospect #17.

17) Yanquiel Fernandez, OF, DSL: .333/.406/.531, 154 wRC+, 10.9 BB%, 12.9 K%, 6 HR

Yanquiel Fernandez is a name many Colorado Rockies fans may be unfamiliar with. It’s time for that to change.

Signed in 2019 for just under $300k out of Cuba, Fernandez wasn’t quite a blockbuster addition like Adael Amador to the system but there were expectations he could emerge as a notable prospect. He’s certainly accomplished that.

According to Baseball America, the Rockies intended on sending the 6’2″ outfielder to the Arizona Complex League but, due to visa issues, he was unable to come stateside and stuck in the Dominican Summer League. The Rockies’ faith in Fernandez was fulfilled in a pro-debut where he got on-base at a .406 clip. His extremely low strikeout rate might be the most encouraging sign of all.

There’s exceptional power potential in the frame of Fernandez, with a chance for his power tool to eventually be a 60 or better. If he can match that strength with a plus hit tool, the lefty swinger has as high of a ceiling as almost any player in the system. There’s a chance he joins Montgomery and Amador in Fresno next season.

Grant Lavigne is next on the list of the best Colorado Rockies prospects this season

18) Grant Lavigne, 1B, A/A+: .264/.380/.412, 115 wRC+, 13.6 BB%, 25.1 K%, 9 HR, 9 SB

Fans have been aware of Lavigne since he was selected 42nd overall in the 2018 draft. He went on to post a 160 wRC+ in his pro-debut. The hulking 6-foot-4 first baseman hasn’t quite shown the same elite potential since but he is proving he can be a great pure hitter.

Starting out in Low-A, Lavigne performed (123 wRC+) en route to a High-A promotion where he sat right at league average offensive production.

Mid-season promotions can definitely be challenging for players so it’s not worth paying much attention to that his production declined.

What deserves attention is Lavigne’s rock-solid walk rate on the year. With offensive prospects, walk rate tends to be a reliable indicator of translatable success to the upper minors and to the big leagues. The raw power is there and hopefully, Lavigne will begin tapping into it with frequency.

The New Hampshire native will likely get the nod to start in Double-A, landing him firmly on the Rockies’ radar.

Rox Pile’s Kevin Henry spoke with Lavigne back in July when he was still in Low-A Fresno. You can check out that conversation here.

19) Helcris Olivarez, LHP, A+: 6.05 ERA, 5.71 FIP, 1.58 WHIP, 24.7 K%, 15.0 BB%

The recipient of the most helium in the Colorado Rockies’ system during the pandemic was undoubtedly Olivarez. He’s got the size, velocity, mechanics, and breaking ball to be an elite pitcher. Unfortunately, the Dominican-born lefty lacks consistency in almost all facets of his game.

However, context in Olivarez’s case is important. He was dealt a tough assignment being sent to Spokane as a 20-year-old who had never pitched in full-season ball. Still, the 15.0 walk percentage is alarming.

There is hope for Olivarez given that he has a smooth and repeatable delivery but, given that he’s already on the 40-man, his clock is ticking. If the Rockies don’t see progress soon, the 6-foot-2 southpaw will likely get the reliever treatment.

20) Warming Bernabel, 3B, ACL/A: .312/.367/.516, 123 wRC+, 6.7 BB%, 14.4 K%, 7 HR, 9 SB

Like Fernandez, Warming Bernabel wasn’t a widely known Rockies prospect coming into the year and likely still isn’t. His midseason promotion to Fresno moved the needle on his recognition but his slow transition repealed some of that progress.

The recently turned 19-year-old obviously has some ardent supporters in the organization given his promotion over some of the older prospects in the ACL.

At the plate, the infielder’s hands clear the zone like lightning. His hands create high contact rates as well as quality bat speed, giving him the potential to hit for average and power.

Bernabel ran into some trouble in Low-A, though, as his contact-centric approach yielded too many ground balls (37.1 percent in ACL and 52.8 percent in Low-A). Still, he has quality upside as a versatile infielder. He’ll likely stay in Low-A to start the season, unless the Rockies see noticeable progression in the spring.

21) Juan Guerrero, 3B/OF, ACL: .318/.394/.500, 133 wRC+, 9.4 BB%, 17.0 K%, 4 HR, 9 SB

There was a back-and-forth about whether to place Bernabel or Guerrero higher. Ultimately, Bernabel’s younger age and Low-A promotion won out.

Still, Guerrero seems like the higher upside prospect. His swing and approach are advanced and there’s plenty of projectability remaining. Guerrero is an athletic player, too, who can steal some bags and play a solid corner outfield spot.

Watch out for him in full-season ball, where he’ll add to the richness in Fresno’s future lineup.

22) Victor Juarez, LHP, DSL/ACL: 2.21 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 0.85 WHIP, 33.1 K%, 4.9 BB%

One of the biggest risers in the system and frankly, one of the most talented pitchers, Victor Juarez made his presence known this year.

In 26.2 innings in the DSL, Juarez posted a robust 0.68 ERA — the second-best figure in DSL Rockies history behind Jeffri Ocando’s mark in 2016 — and allowed just 11 hits. He was quite untouchable.

While Ocando struggled after a stateside promotion, Juarez’s success translated in a short stint in the ACL. Unfortunately, he was nipped by a pair of home runs in his 3 appearances, leaving his ERA at 6.30. Still, he looked more than competent at a mere 18-years-old.

It’s possible Juarez jumps to Fresno to start next season, but he could use some more stateside seasoning before being presented with such a difficult assignment.

23) Hunter Goodman, C, ACL: .300/.419/.517, 145 wRC+, 12.2 BB%, 18.9 K%, 2 HR

The Rockies drafted Hunter Goodman in the 4th-round in 2021 and he came with the reputation of a masher, hitting 29 home runs over his last 73 games at the University of Memphis (a 162-game pace of 64).

While Goodman didn’t hit for crazy power in his pro-debut, he did something more encouraging; record excellent walk and strikeout rates. A .517 SLG serves as a cherry on top.

There’s quality potential in Goodman’s bat. He might not stick behind the plate defensively but he isn’t a lumbering player and could hold his own in a corner OF spot. The addition of an automatic strike zone could make Goodman’s future behind the plate a little more likely.

There’s a possibility Goodman gets dealt a level-skipping assignment to Spokane but it’s also likely he joins the star-studded group of hitters we’ve covered above and in the last article in Fresno.

24) Adrian Pinto, 2B/SS, DSL: .360/.486/.543, 185 wRC+, 17.0 BB%, 8.0 K%, 3 HR, 41 SB

Another unknown to the majority of the fanbase, Adrian Pinto had himself the best offensive season in DSL Rockies history.

The tiny (he’s listed at 5’6″ and 156 pounds) but mighty Pinto did everything. He hit for average (.360), drew a lot of walks (38 in 54 games), rarely swung and missed (18 strikeouts total), nearly stole a base every game (41), slapped balls into the gaps, and even managed a trio of long balls. That’s a long laundry list.

Not to mention, Pinto adds to his value as a surefire up the middle defender whether it be at SS, 2B, CF, or a mix of the three.

Be excited about Pinto — and patient as he’s only 19. It’s unlikely he makes the jump from the DSL to Low-A but given his apparent talent, it’s possible.

25) McCade Brown, RHP, ACL: 6.75 ERA, 6.59 FIP, 1.63 WHIP, 25.7 K%, 8.6 BB%

Selected in the 3rd round of the 2021 Draft, McCade Brown epitomizes the ‘boom or bust’ label. The 6-foot-6 right-hander brings an imposing presence to the mound both because of his large build but also his electric stuff.

He sits in the mid-90s with a plus vertical break which allows his fastball to appear to rise on hitters as it enters the zone, one of the trademarks of a plus pitch in the modern game. Brown also brings three secondary pitches to the mound, though the trio all need refinement.

The main knock on the former Indiana hurler is command and the consistency of his mechanics. If he can achieve more control on the mound, his upside is as high as any pitcher in the system.

With pitchers in this mold, the Rockies like to take a patient approach. Brown will likely be a headliner in the Fresno rotation, starting with shorter stints.

26) Willie MacIver, C, A+/AA/AAA: .220/.314/.390, 92 wRC+, 10.0 BB%, 27.3 K%, 15 HR, 20 SB

Willie MacIver had a rollercoaster of a year. He was incredible in Spokane, tailed off in Hartford, but in between, he appeared in the Futures Game. The backstop also made a late-season appearance in Triple-A.

The upper minors struggles for MacIver are concerning as Double-A pitching stands as a true test for offensive prospects.

Still, the former Washington catcher shows talent in every facet of the game, especially power and defense, with some sneaky speed mixed in.

It’s unclear if MacIver will begin in Double-A or Triple-A but he’s firmly on the Rockies’ radar and likely 4th on their depth chart behind Brian Serven (who just missed my top 50).

27) Mitchell Kilkenny, RHP, A/A+: 3.27 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 23.2 K%, 4.8 BB%

A 2018 2nd-round pick, Kilkenny finally established himself after fully recovering from Tommy John surgery in the fall of 2019.

He came on with a bang, flashing his elite command which helped limit baserunners and overall damage, evidenced by his 1.12 WHIP and 3.27 ERA.

The former Texas A&M pitcher doesn’t bring the wow factor on the hill with his stuff, but his pitch ability might be the best in the system. Upper minors hitting will stand as a true test for Kilkenny, where he’ll likely start 2021.

28) Aaron Schunk, 2B/3B, A+: .223/.286/.346, 71 wRC+, 6.3 BB%, 28.1 K%, 8 HR, 13 SB

Coming into 2021 as a top 10 prospect in the Colorado Rockies’ system by almost all scouting sources, Aaron Schunk had a year he’d like to put behind in the rearview. The versatile infielder didn’t have a clean bill of health and couldn’t find his footing all year.

That context is important but we can’t overlook a season in which he looked outmatched offensively.

A 2022 bounce back is very possible, if not likely, but for now, Schunk has fallen down prospect boards.

29) Jack Blomgren, SS, A+: .284/.406/.392, 124 wRC+, 13.0 BB%, 21.4 K%, 3 HR, 30 SB

Blomgren is about as fast as his rise up prospect boards. The 2020 5th-round pick wasn’t seen as much more than a capable defender at shortstop with speed and a low impact bat.

Fast forward and Blomgren’s hit tool looks elite. A .406 pro-debut OBP in High-A deserves praise. He’s very reminiscent of Garrett Hampson, who showed great discipline, contact, and speed in the minors.

Blomgren’s ceiling isn’t too high given his limited power. Still, the former Michigan clubhouse leader comes with a lot of desirable tools.

30) Noah Davis, RHP, A+: 3.60 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 25.2 K%, 10.2 BB%

The key to the Mychal Givens trade rounds out the top 30. Noah Davis has continued to post quality numbers following his 11th round draft selection in 2018.

Davis’ command could use some refinement but he seemed to have more control over his pitches after joining the Rockies organization as his walk rate dropped from 12.5 percent all the way down to 5.7 percent.

We’ll see which version of the 6’2″ righty we see in 2022. Still, the former Reds’ farmhand has a solid 4-pitch arsenal that should play as he enters the upper minors next season.

Exiting the top 30, we’ll pick up the pace, including just a couple of notes per player.

34) Juan Brito, 2B, ACL: .295/.406/.432, 126 wRC+, 13.8 BB%, 19.3 K%, 3 HR, 5 SB

A lesser-known Dominican prospect, Brito has impressive bat-to-ball skills and great plate discipline.

He’s not overly fast and doesn’t have a lot of power but Brito’s hit tool is one of the best in the organization.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Fresno Grizzlies (A)

35) Jordy Vargas, RHP, DSL: 1.30 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 32.4 K%, 11.3 BB%

Vargas joins Juarez and Pinto as international prospects who jump-started their ascent up Rockies prospect boards.

There’s not much info on the young right-hander but his proclivity to get swings and misses and limit damage jumps off the page.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Arizona Complex League

36) Gavin Hollowell, RHP, A: 2.45 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 0.91 WHIP, 35.6 K%, 5.7 BB%

The top relief prospect on my list, Hollowell has been dominant since his 6th-round draft selection in 2019.

Both his fastball and slider can be devastating, showing a future as a potential closer.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Hartford Yard Goats (AA)

37) Robby Martin, OF, ACL/A: .256/.352/.436, 108 wRC+, 9.9 BB%, 26.4 K%, 3 HR, 3 SB

The 3rd hitter selected by the Rockies this year, Martin has quality tools across the board. There’s some swing and miss concern going forward but he has everyday potential.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Spokane Indians (A+)

38) Zach Kokoska, OF, ACL: .395/.458/.535, 164 wRC+, 6.3 BB%, 12.5 K%, 1 HR, 8 SB

Went later in the 2021 draft because he was a senior but the Rockies got a steal in Kokoska.

The former Kansas State star has great contact skills and hits the ball well. Kokoska should be a quality corner outfield defender, too.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Fresno Grizzlies (Single-A)

39) Nick Bush, LHP, A+/AA: 3.71 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 24.8 K%, 5.8 BB%

A pitcher in close proximity to MLB, Bush has performed respectably at every level since being taken in the 8th-round of the 2018 draft.

Bush has a great curveball and impressive command of his less-than-flashy arsenal. Overall, there’s a swingman profile and his stuff could tick up in the bullpen.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple-A)

40) Julio Carreras, 3B, A: .254/.306/.392, 82 wRC+, 5.9 BB%, 25.2 K%, 7 HR, 15 SB

Carreras had been steamrolling competition until this year. While things could’ve been worse, Carreras struggled mightily until recording a 116 wRC+ between July 31st and the end of the season.

The hope is the soon-to-be 22-year-old can rebound and flash the power-speed combo he showed early in his career.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Spokane Indians (Advanced-A)

41) Karl Kauffmann, RHP, A+/AA: 6.90 ERA, 6.25 FIP, 1.87 WHIP, 16.1 K%, 9.8 BB%

A big faller this year, Kauffmann couldn’t get anything going in AA. Jumping to AA in his first pro season was a daunting task but, even then, he lacked a pitching identity.

Kauffmann was drafted for his pristine command and fastball-changeup combo but he nearly walked 10% of hitters on the year and was hit hard.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Hartford Yard Goats (Double-A)

42) Julian Fernández, RHP, AA/AAA: 2.53 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 23.7 K%, 9.0 BB%

A late-season addition to the Rockies’ active roster, the flamethrowing Julian Fernández had himself a season. He showed quality command of a power arsenal and was seemingly immune to damage in the minors.

The one area of concern is that Fernández’s stuff doesn’t miss as many bats as expected for how powerful it is.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple-A)

43) Daniel Montano, OF, A/A+: .293/.367/.395, 107 wRC+, 10.8 BB%, 24.6 K%, 4 HR, 11 SB

A long-time member of the Rockies organization, Montano has displayed impressive tools at times since being a high-profile international signing.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t had much success consistently putting it all together. Montano’s hit tool impressed this year though.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Hartford Yard Goats (Double-A)

44) Will Ethridge, RHP, A/A+: 4.68 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 22.2 K%, 5.0 BB%

Ethridge was electric in 6 starts with Fresno but saw his numbers sharply decline across the board with a promotion to Spokane. Like Nick Bush, Ethridge relies on sharp command and competent secondary stuff over a more modern power arsenal.

There’s potential as an innings eater and, like Bush, a chance for enhanced stuff out of the pen.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Hartford Yard Goats (Double-A)

45) Braxton Fulford, C, ACL: .267/.488/.400, 154 wRC+, 22.7 BB%, 31.8 K%, 2 SB

Hailed as a quality game manager and defender behind the plate, Fulford planted a seed of hope that he can become more than that.

His walk rate was exceptionally promising and he flashed a lot of power his final season at Texas Tech.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Fresno Grizzlies (Low-A)

46) Bryce McGowan, RHP, ACL: 0.00 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 0.75 WHIP, 26.7 K%, 13.3 BB%

Why is a recent 18th-rounder in the Rockies top 50? Bryce McGowan’s 6th-round signing bonus value came as a testament to McGowan’s elite but unrefined traits.

The righty has a plus fastball and the potential for three plus secondary pitches. McGowan needs to establish more consistency and control and he could fly up prospect boards.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Fresno Grizzlies (Low-A)

47) Isaac Collins, 2B/OF, A/A+: .308/.407/.475, 138 wRC+, 12.4 BB%, 22.6 K%, 9 HR, 21 SB

One of the most impressive prospects in the system this year, Isaac Collins flashed top-of-the-order potential with good contact skills, discipline, and speed.

The upper minors will be a pivotal test to see where expectations should sit.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Hartford Yard Goats (Double-A)

48) Mike Ruff, RHP, A: 4.34 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 25.0 K%, 10.5 BB%

Mike Ruff was excellent in the early going and looked primed to jump a level but he skidded mid-season and suffered an injury in July.

Ruff has a quality fastball and curveball which enables him to miss bats but his command can be fringey at times.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Spokane Indians (Advanced-A)

49) Evan Justice, LHP, ACL: 3.00 ERA, 8.13 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 33.3 K%, 16.7 BB%

The Rockies’ 5th-rounder came heavily under slot value to accommodate McGowan but Justice deserves a lot of credit in his own right.

He’s a big & deceptive lefty with a power fastball and slider that could make a destructive two-pitch mix. If Justice overcomes mechanical inconsistency he could be a bullpen weapon.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Fresno Grizzlies (Low-A)

50) Case Williams, RHP, A: 5.73 ERA, 6.39 FIP, 1.63 FIP, 14.4 K%, 13.2 BB%

The source of a lot of Colorado Rockies scrutiny in trades recently (the Rockies traded him to the Reds this offseason and then reacquired him from the Reds in July), Case Williams did not have the kind of pro-debut he envisioned. He didn’t miss bats, walked his fair share, and got hit hard.

The Douglas County native still has quality foundational tools that likely have needed time to come together.

2022 Projected Affiliate: Fresno Grizzlies (Low-A)

51) Dugan Darnell, RHP, A/A+: 1.95 ERA, 2.56 FIP, 0.76 WHIP, 39.2 K%, 4.9 BB%

Last but certainly not least, Darnell made waves and then some this year. A 2020 undrafted free agent, the righty defied all expectations earning the closer role in Spokane.

Beyond the role, Darnell was basically unhittable, struck out a ton of hitters, and barely walked any. He’s got deception, command, and pitchability which could lead him to a solid MLB role in the future. If the sample size wasn’t small, he could be much higher on the list.

Rox Pile’s Kevin Henry caught up with Darnell in May. You can listen to that here.

That wraps up our prospect season review. Between this article and the last, an understanding of the meat of the Rockies’ system has been outlined.

This organization is in better shape than many would like to admit with the depth on the mend and the top rediscovering some elite talent. The offseason will come with more updates and Spring Training will be loaded with prospect storylines.