Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: Tuesday’s betting preview

Jun 28, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland (21) pitches in the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 28, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland (21) pitches in the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Colorado Rockies face off against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night where Kyle Freeland will take on Patrick Corbin in a rematch from 10 days ago. The Rockies clobbered Corbin for six runs that day and Freeland notched seven strikeouts en route to a 6-0 Rockies win in Washington.

Here’s how the main odds are listed at today for the Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals game, courtesy of WynnBET

Moneyline: Nationals +125, Rockies -135
Runline: Nationals +1.5 (-145), Rockies -1.5 (+125)
Total: 12.0 (Over -105, Under -115)

The Colorado Rockies have a significant edge in the pitching matchup. Kyle Freeland has been dominant in the second half of the season, posting up an ERA of 3.91, an FIP of 3.92, and an xFIP of 3.55 since the All-Star break. By park-adjusted stats, that’s an ERA- of 82, meaning he’s performing almost 20% better than a league average pitcher. Outside of a few shaky starts that were very likely a result of him being injured, he’s been very, very good for this Rockies ball club.

It hasn’t quite been the same story for Patrick Corbin. He’s got an ERA of 6.59 since the All-Star break to go along with a 5.79 FIP and a 4.24 xFIP. Nine of his 13 starts since the break have resulted in him giving up four earned runs or more. He’s gotten a bit unlucky according to xFIP, but the Rockies did tag him for six earned runs on 10 hits in just 4.0 innings on September 18. He posted an xFIP of 5.12 that game and that points to the fact that the Rockies could do damage again tonight against a pitcher they’re familiar with. Corbin also has not been a fan of Coors Field in his career, posting up an ERA of 6.20 to go along with a 1.590 WHIP when visiting the Mile High City.

In terms of hitting, both teams hit lefties better than they do righties. The Nationals have been hitting pretty well over the last two weeks (wRC+ of 117), but the quality of pitching they’ve been seeing has not been good. While they should do better today than they did 10 days ago, I don’t think they’ll outpace the Rockies given the tasty matchup vs. Corbin.

Freeland should be able to limit the Nationals and the Rockies should be able to outpace whatever they put up as I expect them to give Corbin a tough time tonight, but I’m not sure I’d trust the bullpen to hold this all together at the end.

Therefore, I’m recommending that you take the Rockies First 5 Innings -0.5 (-115). You can side with the F5 moneyline at -140, but this avoids the juice with slightly more risk. Corbin has been a reliable pitcher to fade when the matchup calls for it and that’s exactly what this situation is calling for. Locking in the Under at 12.0 should be in consideration also.

Make your pick now on WynnBET

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Good luck tonight and go Rockies!

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