Colorado Rockies: 3 bold predictions for the trade deadline

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Jun 25, 2021; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Colorado Rockies pitcher Jon Gray (55) pitches in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports /

The Colorado Rockies could be one of the biggest sellers in Major League Baseball in the coming weeks as they have five impending free agents that they could look to trade, including two of the best players in the upcoming free agency class in Trevor Story and Jon Gray

We have three bold predictions regarding the Colorado Rockies at the trade deadline.

The Colorado Rockies will not trade Jon Gray

Between Trevor Story and Jon Gray, Story is most likely to be traded but also, Gray is most likely to be extended by the Rockies.

It is a decision that the Rockies have weighed out and will continue to weigh out for the next few weeks but Gray expressed his desire to stay with the Rockies when he spoke with us last month.

Obviously, that’s not going to be the only factor but a fair contract offer will be the key. For the Rockies to offer that in the next few weeks or months, one of the things that they will definitely look at is his home/road splits.

Overall in his career, Gray has pitched better at Coors Field, and with the exception of the pandemic shortened (and, for Gray, injured shortened) season of 2020, that has been showcased more in recent years.

Career numbers at home: 31-15, 4.47 ERA
Career numbers on the road: 19-28, 4.58 ERA
2017 home: 5-1, 3.13 ERA in eight starts
2017 road: 5-3, 4.06 ERA in 12 starts
2018 home: 7-4, 4.91 ERA in 16 starts
2018 road: 5-5, 5..34 ERA in 15 starts
2019 home: 6-2, 3.46 ERA in 13 games (12 starts)
2019 road: 5-6, 4.22 ERA in 13 starts
2021 home: 5-2, 3.22 ERA in nine starts
2021 road: 0-4, 5.16 ERA in six starts

That track record right there says that the Rockies, at bare minimum, should talk with Gray’s agent to see if an extension could be in the cards and if so, the Rockies may take the gamble and not trade him at the trade deadline

Apr 30, 2021; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story (27) hits a single against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

The Colorado Rockies will trade Trevor Story … and fans will be very disappointed in the return

As we’ve discussed a few times recently (but most notably here), position players who are rentals do not get much in return when a team has just two months of control before free agency.

What’s most likely to happen is that the Rockies will get one of the acquiring team’s top 15 prospects and then, they will get two or three other low-ranked prospects.

We have seen that happen with the Rockies when they traded Troy Tulowitzki and we have seen it with other teams, like in the Manny Machado trade from Baltimore to the Dodgers.

Teams aren’t going to pay top dollar for two months of control, which is why some teams have turned to trading players when they have a year or two left on their contracts to try to maximize their return.

In reality, the Rockies should have done this with Trevor Story because the chance of extending him was slim but having the Nolan Arenado trade and a Trevor Story trade happen in the same offseason would have been even more cataclysmic for Rockies fans.

One way to soften the blow would be to add in someone else, like Jon Gray, C.J. Cron, or a relief pitcher into the deal so that the Rockies could get more in return but, in most trades, teams get the most out of players when they don’t send multiple major leaguers to another team together.

Jun 14, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Austin Gomber (26) pitches in the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /

The Colorado Rockies will get multiple players that will help their MLB team this year

Whether it is in a deal for Trevor Story, Jon Gray, Mychal Givens, or others, the Colorado Rockies will be looking to replenish their farm system and that should be their main concern.

After all, the Rockies Triple-A and Double-A teams have shown that they don’t have a ton to offer by their records.

Both the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes and Double-A Hartford Yard Goats have the worst record in their leagues (the Triple-A West and Double-A Northeast) and the second-worst record in each level.

The Rockies current talent resides in High-A Spokane and Low-A Fresno, where the teams have records of 25-30 and 35-20.

The Rockies haven’t been good at the major league level either, as their record indicates, so they need to get some more talent at the upper-minor league level and/or some talent at the MLB level with four to six years of team control.

In the Arenado deal, the Rockies got Austin Gomber, who pitched very well for the Rockies before hitting the IL but if Story, Cron, Givens, and, perhaps, Gray and others are traded, the Rockies will get multiple pieces that will help them at the major league level at some point in 2021.

Next. Could Cleveland be a trade fit for Story and Gray?. dark

If that’s not the case, they either need to help the Rockies at the beginning of 2022 or the Rockies will have pulled off a bad trade, which is something that they must be cautious about in the next few weeks because the trades (or lack of trades) will give fans a better look at the Rockies in 2022 and beyond.

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Colorado Rockies: 3 bold predictions for the trade deadline

The Colorado Rockies will not trade Jon Gray

The Colorado Rockies will trade Trevor Story … and fans will be very disappointed in the return

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The Colorado Rockies will get multiple players that will help their MLB team this year

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