Colorado Rockies: Can Charlie Blackmon become the next Todd Helton?

On June 2, Charlie Blackmon passed Larry Walker to take third place for most games in a Colorado Rockies uniform. He is only 76 games away from passing the great Carlos Gonzalez at number two, and 1076 games away from Todd Helton at number one.

With that thought in mind, I had a thought experiment.

Were there any numerical stats that Charlie Blackmon could lead by the end of his time with the Colorado Rockies?

Blackmon currently has two remaining player options on his contract that he will probably pick up. His future after that, though, is up in the air.

How I am going to do this is to go over and explain each stat, where “Chuck Nazty” currently ranks and discuss how he can pass these records during his time with the Rockies.

We will look at two main scenarios. First, if Blackmon just stays on through his contract in the 2022 season. We will also calculate each stat for if he has a similar length career with the Rockies to Todd Helton, four years after his last option, and see what numbers he could accomplish there.

Career Games

Current (6/4/21): 1172 (3rd)

Leaders Ahead: Todd Helton (2274), and Carlos Gonzalez (1247)

Games Needed for 1st place: 1103

Remaining Options High: 1601

Remaining Options Likely: 1569

Odds of #1: 0%

Likely Standing: 2nd

Todd Helton Time High: 2249

Todd Helton Time Likely: 2169

Odds of #1: 0%

Likely Standing: 2nd

This is the stat that made me think up this article. Passing Larry Walker and knowing that he still probably had at least two years left with the Rockies, I wanted to know what other records he could beat in his time with the team. Chuck will most likely move past CarGo this year, only needing 76 more games to pass the Rockies legend. Passing Todd Helton on the other hand is going to be a tall order.

Like many things on this list, the gap from first to second is wide and will take many seasons of playtime in order for any player to pass the Toddfather. Games is a perfect example.

Todd Helton became a starter in only his second season in the majors, Charlie Blackmon wasn’t an everyday starter until his fourth season in the majors. That lost time means that there is no way Blackmon catches up to Helton’s mark unless he plays longer than Helton did. So what if we move on into stats that Chuck Nazty could lead in?

Plate Appearances

Current (6/4/21): 4953 (3rd)

Leaders Ahead: Todd Helton (9453), and Carlos Gonzalez (5069)

Plate Appearances needed for 1st Place: 4500

Remaining Options High: 6926

Remaining Options Likely: 6584

Odds of #1: 0%

Likely Standing: 2nd

Todd Helton Time High: 9907

Todd Helton Time Likely: 9024

Odds of #1: Unlikely

Likely Standing: 2nd

By the time Charlie Blackmon has run out of options on his contract, he will stand firm in the second-place spot. Barring injury, Blackmon should be able to pass CarGo this year, all the rest of his time spent will be in the lonely gap between him and Todd Helton. With this statistic though, Chuck might have an advantage if he stays in the league.

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The DH is most likely coming to the National League in the coming season and that move would be the most likely extender of Blackmon’s career. Always struggling at defense, having Blackmon’s bat without needing his glove would be an asset for the franchise.

This is one stat though that depends on the rest of the offense. In order for Charlie to beat Helton’s mark, he needs to be in the batter’s box over three times a game.

This is one of several stats that Charlie’s move from the leadoff spot may hurt him, the leadoff man gets the most plate appearances on the team usually just because of how the game works, being moved down to fourth may be the difference in whether he can pass Helton as the player to make the most appearances in the batter’s box in a Rockies uniform.

Runs Scored

Current (6/4/21): 766 (4th)

Leaders Ahead: Todd Helton (1401), Larry Walker (892), and Carlos Gonzalez (769)

Runs needed for 1st Place: 635

Remaining Options High: 1138

Remaining Options Likely: 984

Odds of #1: 0%

Likely Standing: 2nd

Todd Helton Time High: 1618

Todd Helton Time Likely: 1304

Odds of #1: Could happen but still unlikely

Likely Standing: 2nd

I was honestly a little shocked to see Blackmon so low on the runs leaderboard. Logic would think that, as the leadoff man, you get more chances to get on base, which gives you more chances to score.

Charlie is no longer the leadoff man, but getting runs depends on the rest of the offense, they should be generated from anywhere within the lineup. Blackmon could pass CarGo as early as this series with the Athletics, but passing Larry Walker for second place almost certainly won’t happen until some point late next season or early in the 2023 season.

If Blackmon were to stay with the Rockies longer than his current contract, he would get close to Helton’s record, but I am not entirely convinced that he will ultimately be able to pass Helton, but if he stays consistent and keeps his OBP as high as he has been, then it might just be possible.

Hits

Current (6/4/21): 1356 (3rd)

Leaders Ahead: Todd Helton (2519), and Larry Walker (1361)

Hits needed for 1st Place: 1163

Remaining Options High: 1753

Remaining Options Likely: 1693

Odds of #1: 0%

Likely Standing: 2nd

Todd Helton Time High: 2553

Todd Helton Time Likely: 2373

Odds of #1: Won’t happen

Likely Standing: 2nd

Charlie Blackmon will most likely break into second place on this list in the coming week, only being behind Larry Walker by five hits as of this writing. It really seems like this is the year where Blackmon is moving into these second place positions so the rest of his career can be focused on passing Todd Helton in the various records he holds.

Hits are a statistic that Blackmon could feasibly catch up to Helton on, but he would need to be performing at peak capacity for the next 6.6 seasons, which I find unlikely.

Singles

Current (6/4/21): 875 (2nd)

Leaders Ahead: Todd Helton (1521)

Singles needed for 1st Place: 646

Remaining Options High: 1207

Remaining Options Likely:  1177

Odds of #1: 0%

Likely Standing: 2nd

Todd Helton Time High: 1707

Todd Helton Time Likely: 1637

Odds of #1: Almost Certain

Likely Standing: 1st

Here we go, a statistic Chuck has already broken into second place for career singles. While if he retires after his current contract he will remain in second place well behind Todd Helton. If, however, Blackmon sticks it out and has as long a career as Todd Helton, he will probably get first place a whole season or two before he retires.

As far as legacy goes, it shows how overall Todd Helton was a better player if you look deeper into it. Charlie will most likely remain in second place in hits, despite being first in singles, showing how much better Helton was with the long ball and extra-base hits (especially doubles). That said, it is a relief to find something that Blackmon could lead the Colorado Rockies in at the end of a long career. Good thing it isn’t the only stat where he will be leading.

Doubles

Current (6/4/21): 250 (6th)

Leaders Ahead: Todd Helton (592), Larry Walker (297), Carlos Gonzalez (277), Dante Bichette (270), and Nolan Arenado (262)

Doubles needed for 1st Place: 342

Remaining Options High: 350

Remaining Options Likely: 329

Odds of #1: 0%

Likely Standing: 2nd

Todd Helton Time High: 498

Todd Helton Time Likely: 449

Odds of #1: 0%

Likely Standing: 2nd

This may seem strange, but I actually expect Blackmon to hit more doubles now because of his loss in speed. Blackmon just can’t stretch runs as he used to and because of that, a lot of balls that would have been triples will now be doubles.

I will qualify that though and say that Todd Helton is the Doubles King, there is no way Charlie Blackmon will ever get close to Helton’s mark unless he is in the league for a very long time. This season though, Blackmon will almost certainly pass Nolan Arenado for fifth place and could come close to passing Dante Bichette to move into fourth place.

Next season he would for sure pass Bichette and CarGo and get close to Larry Walker in second. In 2023, his last option year he would stand alone in second place, even if he signed a new contract, he would never catch up to the Toddfather in first.

Triples

Current (6/4/21): 49 (T-2nd)

Leaders Ahead: Dexter Fowler (53) and Neifi Perez (49)

Triples needed for 1st Place: 4

Remaining Options High: 65

Remaining Options Likely: 53

Odds of #1: Probable

Likely Standing: 1st-2nd

Todd Helton Time High: 97

Todd Helton Time Likely: 69

Odds of #1: 100%

Likely Standing: 1st

Hey look, we finally found a statistic not led by Todd Helton. Unfortunately, this one was hard to estimate, because of COVID-19 and the shortened season we weren’t able to see if Blackmon could still hit triples as well as he did in 2019. This year will be a critical one for Charlie’s standing in this.

I believe though that he will pass Neifi Perez for second place this season, it could literally happen any day now. The question remains if he can pass Fowler. I am fairly confident that he can and will move into first place once his option years are over, but if he is in the club for four more years after that? Then there is no question who will wear the Triples Crown.

Home Runs

Current (6/4/21): 182 (8th)

Leaders Ahead: Todd Helton (369), Larry Walker (258), Vinny Castilla (239), Nolan Arenado (235), Carlos Gonzalez (227), Dante Bichette (201), and Troy Tulowitzki (188)

Home Runs needed for 1st Place: 188

Remaining Options High: 267

Remaining Options Likely: 233

Odds of #1: 0%

Likely Standing: 4th-5th

Todd Helton Time High: 395

Todd Helton Time Likely: 301

Odds of #1: Could happen, but unlikely

Likely Standing: 2nd

Charlie Blackmon hits a decent amount of home runs, but he has nothing on the Blake Street Bombers. This season, he will definitely pass Troy Tulowitzki for seventh place and get close to Dante Bichette in sixth. He should pass Bichette and eventually pass CarGo during his option years. There is an outside possibility that Blackmon might pass Nolan, but could be difficult.

If Blackmon has a Helton length career and his bat remains hot, then he would certainly move into second place, if not move into first in front of Todd Helton. We know Charlie can jack the ball, but the question will be how much of that power remains as he ages.

A drop-off would see him fall short of Helton’s mark but still more than likely move into second place above Larry Walker. If he remains consistent, he might challenge the Helton home run crown.

Runs Batted In

Current (6/4/21): 582 (8th)

Leaders Ahead: Todd Helton (1406), Larry Walker (848), Dante Bichette (826), Nolan Arenado (760), Carlos Gonzalez (749), Vinny Castilla (745), and Troy Tulowitzki (657)

RBIs needed for 1st Place: 825

Remaining Options High: 883

Remaining Options Likely: 824

Odds of #1: 0%

Likely Standing: 3rd-4th

Todd Helton Time High: 1343

Todd Helton Time Likely: 1184

Odds of #1: 0%

Likely Standing: 2nd

This is a stat that the leadoff spot actively hurt Charlie Blackmon. He was the only player each game guaranteed to have at least one PA with no batters on base, no chance for RBI unless he hit a home run. This is one of the few stats that Blackmon most likely will not be in first or second place after his contract options.

Being moved down in the lineup will help him gain ground on the others, already passing Andres Galarraga for eighth place this season. By the end of this season, he will be on the heels of Troy Tulowitzki, if not past him. Next season, he should get past Tulo and on the heels of Vinny, CarGo, and Nolan.

Finally, at the end of the 2023 season, he should be past Dante Bichette and getting close to Larry Walker in second place, though he will most likely need to be on the Colorado Rockies longer in order to outright pass him. This is another stat that Todd firmly has a grip on and won’t be passed by a Rockies’ player anytime soon.

Hit by Pitch

Current (6/3/21): 80 (2nd)

Leaders Ahead: Larry Walker (98)

HBP needed for 1st Place: 18

Remaining Options High: 114

Remaining Options Likely: 105

Odds of #1: Extremely Likely

Likely Standing: 1st

Todd Helton Time High: 166

Todd Helton Time Likely: 145

Odds of #1: 100%

Likely Standing: 1st

All right this might be a bit of an out-there statistic, but this is what Baseball Reference has instead of walks, so here we are. Blackmon only needs to be hit 18 more times to reach Larry Walker’s mark, and over the next few years, I find that to be at least somewhat likely.

Charlie can tank a few hits if need be and does so several times a year. He will most likely pass Walker in his remaining contract years, and be able to stretch the record during the remaining four years of a Helton-style career. It may not be the flashiest record, but it will be a record nonetheless.

Offensive WAR

Current (6/4/21): 25.6 (5th)

Leaders Ahead: Todd Helton (54.5), Larry Walker (43.6), Troy Tulowitzki (31.0), and Nolan Arenado (26.9)

oWAR needed for 1st Place: 28.9

Remaining Options High: 42.1

Remaining Options Likely: 34.6

Odds of #1: 0%

Likely Standing: 3rd

Todd Helton Time High: 64.1

Todd Helton Time Likely: 46.6

Odds of #1: Unlikely, but Possible

Likely Standing: 2nd

Ok, so let’s end our analysis on a big one. Offensive WAR is a statistic that looks at a player’s total offensive output, and that is where Charlie excels. Currently in fifth place, I would expect Blackmon to pass Nolan Arenado on this list at some point this season. It may take two seasons though for Blackmon to pass Tulo on this list.

Barring some miracle, Blackmon will most likely not catch up to Larry Walker in his option years, but if he remains with the club past that, it is reasonable to think he would eventually take that second place spot. It will be difficult for Blackmon to catch up with Todd Helton though, but not entirely unlikely. It really depends on what kind of career hitter Blackmon ends up becoming.

Personally, I believe he will stay right around where he is, a +.300 hitter with a smart offensive mind, meaning he will most likely end up short of Helton and possibly even short of Walker depending on how his age catches up to him. That said, being just barely behind the two greatest Colorado Rockies in history is not that much of an insult.

A disclaimer

There are a few stats that I want to touch on here that weren’t able to be calculated like all these other ones. The reason I left these stats out is that they seem to have future issues that would make predicting what would happen impossible.

First, due to age, Charlie Blackmon does not steal bases as he did in years past, he is currently in second place behind Eric Young Sr. by 49 stolen bases. The odds of him ever getting to that number is essentially impossible and who knows how many he will even attempt each year if any at all.

The same goes for caught stealing, Blackmon is currently 14 behind Eric Young Sr., in this category, with fewer attempts happening, there is no way he will catch up to him in the future and no way to estimate how many he will really have.

The other issue is defensive stats, while Blackmon has never had great defensive prowess, but currently he is third on the “Outs Made” list, behind Todd Helton and Carlos Gonzalez. With the DH seemingly inevitable, Blackmon is one favorite to fill that position, allowing a younger player to fill that spot (hopefully Zac Veen), while his most valuable asset can still be used.

With that final disclaimer out of the way, let’s bring this thing home by looking at the total numbers.

Charlie Blackmon Total Option Stat Standings:

Likely 1st- 1

Chance for 1st- 2

2nd- 8

3rd or lower- 4

If Charlie Blackmon leaves the Colorado Rockies after his two years of player options, no doubt his legacy will still be felt by the club. Most likely he will lead at least one all-time Colorado Rockies leaderboard: Hit by Pitches.

He will lead or close to leading all-time in triples and strikeouts. He’ll be in the well that is second place behind Todd Helton in eight categories: Games, Plate Appearances, Runs, Hits, Singles, Doubles, Steals, and Caught Stealing. Finally, Blackmon would still be in the top 10 in Home Runs, RBIs, Total Outs, and Offensive WAR.

Todd Helton Career length Stat Standings:

Likely 1st- 4

Chance for 1st- 4

2nd- 6

3rd- 1

If Charlie Blackmon has a career as long as Todd Helton’s with the Colorado Rockies, he will go down as a Rockie greater than Larry Walker, though Todd Helton might still want to have a word with him. Blackmon would certainly lead the franchise in Hit by Pitch, Triples, Strikeouts, and Singles. He could possibly top the leaderboard in Plate Appearances, Runs, Home Runs, and oWAR.

With that career he would still be in second in Games, Hits, Doubles, RBIs, Steals, and Caught Stealing. Finally, Blackmon would most likely be doomed to third in outs made as the DH is implemented and they move him there.

In conclusion, if Charlie Blackmon retired from the league today, we would remember him as an all-time Colorado Rockies great. Whatever he has left in his career is just icing on the cake for Rockies fans.

I truly hope to see Chuck be a lifelong Rockie and to see him be able to compete with Todd Helton for people’s favorite. If he stays in the league for another six seasons and things go as I predicted, Charlie Blackmon will ultimately come ahead of Todd in six of these 15 stats we have looked at today, with Todd taking the definite lead in five stats, with four stats coming down to the wire.

Todd Helton was no doubt overall the better player, but it will be interesting to watch what Blackmon will be able to catch up to and beat him in on these All-Time lists. I do not want to pit these two greats against each other; I think both of their merits stand on their own. Todd Helton should be a Hall of Famer, Charlie Blackmon is a bit more borderline (though a 64.1 oWAR would certainly help his case).

Researching this article made one thing clear. While he might not yet deserve Cooperstown, Charlie Blackmon deserves his number retired by the Rockies. Being able to catch up to Todd Helton in anything Rockies-related is a gigantic task that would take literally an entire career to eclipse.

He’s a fan favorite who could end up leading the club in many categories previously thought untouchable. Don’t make him wait like the disservice that was done to Larry Walker, treat him like the fan-favorite all-time great he is.

Data for this article was found using Baseball-Reference