Colorado Rockies: 2021 regular-season bets, odds, props, and more

Opening Day is only a day away. And while the outlook on the Colorado Rockies’ season may not exactly be in the best of shape, it doesn’t mean that there won’t be any opportunities to make some money off of their fortune (or misfortune if we’re being completely honest). There are quite a few future bets out there with some good potential value behind them, so let’s go ahead and look at some of the more popular lines out there and see where we can cash in.

Here is a gambling preview for the 2021 Colorado Rockies

TEAM FUTURES

Projected Win Total: 63.5

A lot has been made of this win total already, but let’s jump in even further. It’s a fairly low number, even for some of the most pessimistic Rockies fans. But there’s a lot of validity behind the reasoning for the line:

First and foremost, PECOTA projections have the Rockies finishing the season around 60-102. FanGraphs projects the Rockies more optimistically at 67-95, tied for the 2nd worst projection in all of baseball ahead of only the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their ZiPs projections at FanGraphs last year correctly predicted a 26-34 record in the 60 game season, for what it’s worth, so the over may seem enticing given how low the total is. However, I lean on another factor in my approach to this line:

Since the beginning of the second half of the 2019 season, the Rockies have gone 53-80. That’s good enough for a win percentage of 39.8%. Extrapolate that into a 162-game season and you’re finishing with a 64-98 record. Additionally, they overachieved according to their Pythagorean W/L record on Baseball Reference, which put them at an expected record of 23-37 (this translates to a 62-100 record in a 162 game season).

Mind you, this is with Nolan Arenado on the roster and a starting rotation that’s been fairly decent for the most part. Now we need to consider the following:

• Nolan is no longer on this roster
• Trevor Story is very likely to be traded before the deadline
• Gray and/or Marquez would be very likely to be traded as well
• Kyle Freeland will miss at least a month due to a shoulder strain
• Scott Oberg will miss this season as his career is now in jeopardy due to blood clots

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• Colorado Rockies: Has Sean Bouchard earned a second look in 2023?

A lineup without Arenado and Story would be devastating for a team who put up a wRC+ of 76 last year (and 86 the season prior). A rotation potentially without Marquez, Gray, and Freeland would be, well, just a group of guys. A Rockies bullpen without Scott Oberg is, well, what we saw last season.

Nothing is lining up that would make me feel comfortable in taking the over. On top of all the internal issues that the Rockies are having, both the Padres and Dodgers got better in the offseason. They went 3-7 against each of San Diego and Los Angeles and they’ll be lucky to win 30% of their games against each in 2021. For reference, in 2019 they went 4-15 against the Dodgers and 11-8 against the Padres. I would expect that, against two teams that will certainly be fighting to represent the National League in the World Series, both will be closer to the 4-15 record this time around. That seven-game swing against the Padres, when we compare to the Rockies’ 2019 season, would put them right at the 64 win mark yet again (oh would you look at that).

For the over to hit, we will need to see increased production from guys like Raimel Tapia, Garrett Hampson, and Ryan McMahon. Brendan Rodgers, once back from injury, will need to make a decent impact. Daniel Bard is going to have to have the bullpen completely on lock while the rest of the bullpen works hard not to continually blow games. And C.J. Cron will need to perform similarly to how he is right now in spring training. But that’s a lot to ask from a lot of guys that have not been consistent in the past.

You never really want to bet against your own team, but I just don’t see it and I’m not comfortable saying they’ll be any bit good this season.

Additionally, this line hasn’t even budged an inch even with the recent injuries from Kyle Freeland, Brendan Rodgers, and Scott Oberg. It’s like it’s telling us that nothing even mattered anyways.

I recommend taking Under 63.5 wins at -112.

PLAYOFF ODDS

Rockies to Make Playoffs (+6000)
Rockies to Win NL West (+5000)
Rockies to Win NL Title (+8000)
Rockies to Win World Series (+10000)

As I’m already recommending under 63.5 wins, it should be noted that these bets here are strictly bets you’ll only be making as a fan and not for any logical reason with any sort of stats that support your decision. None of these will hit, though I do think it’s interesting that, according to these odds from DraftKings, that the Rockies are technically more likely to win the NL West (something they’ve never done) than they are to make it to the playoffs. If you are betting on these, you need to hope for the following:

An early season run that catapults them to the top of the standings (which the Rockies have done in the past) and that the book you placed your bet at allows you to be able to cash out. For those reasons, if you’re placing this bet then make it on an app like DraftKings or Fanduel and please don’t bet any incredible amounts. The Rockies have no shot at any of these but, if you get lucky early in the season, you may be able to make a small profit. Don’t count on it, though.

PLAYER PROPS

OK, are we done with the doom and gloom portion of the article here? Sweet. Let’s get onto some fun Player Prop bets. Most of these are only currently available on BetOnline.ag, not the apps you may be familiar with already (DraftKings, Fanduel, Bet MGM, etc.), but why not analyze them anyway?

Trevor Story Home Run Total – 34.5

Hey, we came close in our theoretical line the other week at 35.5! That should count for something, right?

First, let’s take a look at Story’s performance last year. He knocked 11 home runs outta the park in 2020 in 259 plate appearances. If we put this into a full season sample size (and for that we’ll use 656 PAs as that’s the exactly amount of PAs he had in both 2018 and 2019), that gives him about 27 homers on the season (28 if you wanna round the decimal up as it comes to 27.8). Given he hit 37 and 35 homers in the years prior, that’s a lot lower than we could have expected. So what contributed to it?

His approach at the plate wasn’t significantly different. His BB% and K% were both pretty similar to past seasons and his slash line, with the exception of slugging percentage, was fairly similar too. Where we do see some changes, though, are HR/FB% and Launch Angle.

Colorado Rockies

As it pertains to HR/FB%, Story had put up a number of 19.9% in both 2018 and 2019. For those new to the stat, that means that basically 20% of all fly balls that Story hit resulted in a home run. In 2020, that number dropped to 13.4%. Where I believe the main change that’s influencing this can be found is in Launch Angle.

In 2018, Story’s average Launch Angle was 16.0 degrees. In 2019, it was 17.5 degrees. In the shortened 2020 season, it increased to 20.9 degrees. In simple terms, Story was getting under the ball more than usual in 2020. It resulted in the 2nd lowest wRC+ of his career, though a wRC+ of 117 shouldn’t be considered bad by anyone’s measures. It just simply means there was a noticeable change in results and that should be a cause of concern for anyone interested in taking the over here.

Additionally, we need to consider the fact that Trevor Story is more than likely to be traded this season, meaning he won’t get as many chances to break this with fewer games at Coors Field. That’s not to say Coors is the full underlying factor here. But while this number may be more realistic if he played with another team for a full season, I would expect that there’d be a slight adjustment period that he goes through before being able to adapt fully to his new environment.

Between that and the worry about him getting too far underneath the ball in 2020 (which is apparently causing him to hit fewer home runs), I recommend backing Under 34.5 Home Runs (-115)

Charlie Blackmon Home Run Total – 24.5

This line may be a little easier to bet compared to Story as Blackmon’s contract makes it much more unlikely that he gets moved by the trade deadline so we have less factors to consider.

First, let’s look at how Blackmon performed last year. He lit the world on fire early in the season with a batting average that hovered over .400 for a decent amount of time, but it came crashing down in a parallel fashion with the Rockies’ regular season performance. However, he didn’t do it with much power.

He only hit six home runs in 2020. In a 162-game season, if we assumed he got 640 plate appearances (on the low end for a normal Charlie Blackmon season) then he would have hit about 16 homers. For a guy whose low point in the four prior seasons was 29, that’s a major drop off.

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As we dive further into the analytics, some stats pop out that either something was off last year or he may be beginning to regress. His Hard Hit Percentage, per Statcast, dropped from 40.3% to 29.7%. His Barrel Percentage dropped from 7.9% to 4.9%. Both of these contribute greatly to the next stat: His HR/FB% dropped from 17.7% to 9.5%. The last time Blackmon had a HR/FB% that low was in 2015 when he finished with 17 homers.

That should be a cause for concern going into the 2021 season in terms of this line. Without much change from his overall approach to the plate (as his BB% and K% stayed relatively similar), and without much change to his batted ball profile (his GB%, FB% and LD% are all fairly similar year to year), then it simply means we need to judge how well Chuck is season the ball and how hard he’s hitting it. With a clear drop last season, and another year behind him, we have to assume that it’s more likely that he’s regressing. He will probably be better than the 16 home runs he would’ve been projected to finish with in 2020, but I’m not certain he’ll be able to get 25 home runs based off the drop off last season.

I am recommending Charlie Blackmon Under 24.5 Home Runs (-115)

Charlie Blackmon Batting Average – .284 (-115)

On the surface, this feels like an easy line to take. Blackmon has never had a batting average under .284 when he’s played a full season and he was just flirting with .400 early in 2020. But, as we started to allude to in the breakdown on his home runs line, there may be some cause for concern here.

The significant drop in Hard Hit Percentage and Barrel Percentage concern me the most. It points towards the idea that he’s probably not seeing the ball as well as he used to. Some of those minute things that players pick up on in their prime may be starting to slip past him. His overall approach isn’t changing, but his batted ball profile points toward him potentially regressing.

We also need to consider how he got to his .303 average last season. While the first half was amazing, he went cold in the second half of the season hitting only .200 in the final 31 games. We also saw his K% increase from 14.2% to 21.3% in the second half of the season, surely a large contributor to this drop in average. It hasn’t looked so hot for him in Spring Training either as evidenced by our friend Luke Hall on Twitter:

In terms of projections, FanGraphs’ multiple models have him pegged between .285 and .290 for the most part. While that skews towards the over, I just have a gut feeling that some of the regression we saw late last season is going to kick in more. Never mind the fact that Chuck will soon be the only longtime veteran in the lineup and trying to uplift it may start to wear on him. I am unfortunately not hopeful for the over here.

I am recommending Charlie Blackmon Batting Average Under .284 (-115)

Ryan McMahon Home Run Total – 22

Are we sensing a theme here? Let’s see if McMahon can break that trend and finally get us an over to take.

Last season he finished the year with nine homers and his over was our Rockies Lock of 2020 as he passed with flying colors. We’re looking at a lot of the same reasoning this season in his line.

First and foremost, if we adjusted that to a normal season’s worth of plate appearances (according to some projections on FanGraphs), then he would’ve finished with around 27 home runs on the season. Easy clearance on this number!

Secondly, McMahon will continue to get time either at second or at third now with Arenado’s departure. His previous high in games played was 141 in 2019 and it’s reasonable to assume he’ll end closer to 150 or more this season. In that 2019 season, he ended with a total of 24 homers. More justification for an over here.

But what I really like about McMahon’s stats is that he is continuing to CRUSH balls that he hits into the air. In 2019 he had a HR/FB% at 27.0% and in 2020 he held close to that at 24.3%. He also increased his Barrel Percentage from 8.7% to 11.2%. This all points towards the fact that when he hits the ball, he’s absolutely smoking it.

The bigger issue we’ll need to worry about here is how he does outside of the long ball. While he crushes balls in the air, he continues to have an extremely high Ground Ball Percentage (over 50% in both 2019 and 2020) and he continues to strikeout at a very high rate (34.2% in 2020). His wRC+ of 76 last season was very uninspiring and in most situations would be a cause for concern in regards to playing time potentially being taken away.

If that continues, though, then who else would the Rockies honestly put out there? We are in a weird spot where I feel that even if McMahon struggles overall that he will continue to get playing time. For that reason I am not worried about a decrease in playing time and we FINALLY have an over.

I am recommending Ryan McMahon Over 22 HRs (-115)

German Marquez Strikeouts – 196.5

On to the pitchers! And let’s get to the one line that’s going to be more fun to breakdown than the others.

This is a unique line for Marquez. Our intuition immediately says that we should look at the over. After all, this dude hurls like no other in our rotation and is the one dude you can trust to get a K when you need it the most. But breaking down this line goes beyond that.

As we look at his career, Marquez has only broken this number in the 2018 season as he struck out 230 batters. He missed it in 2019 with only 175, but could have very likely broke 196.5 had he not gotten injured. His 2020 season projected much lower, though, as he likely would have only finished with around 170 Ks in a traditional season.

Since his incredible 2018, we’ve also seen his strikeout numbers decrease in general. In terms of K/9 (Ks per every 9 innings), he’s dropped from 10.56 in 2018 to 9.05 in 2019 and 8.04 in 2020. In terms of K%, he’s dropped from 28.2% in 2018 to 24.3% in 2019 and 21.2% in 2020. While he’s still getting very positive results on the mound (career best ERA- in 2020 of 73), hitters seem to be seeing him a little bit better to the point where they’re still getting out, they’re just not striking out against him as often.

Based off his last two seasons, I would have to assume that his K/9 sits around 9 with his K% not breaking 25%. If he does have a K/9 of 9, and we assume 31 starts at 6 innings per start, that gets us right around 186 Ks. The simple math tells us the under is the right choice here.

I am recommending German Marquez Under 196.5 Strikeouts (-115)

PITCHER WINS

German Marquez – 11.5 wins
Antonio Senzatela – 8.5 wins
Jon Gray – 9 wins

I’m going to group these all together for one simple reason:

I cannot trust any pitcher to hit their over here simply for the fact that the offense and bullpen are going to be so unreliable that it’s going to be hard to truly trust that an over is going to hit. On top of that, pitcher wins are generally hard to predict.

Marquez has a career high of 14 wins in 2018 after 33 starts. Senzatela’s high is 11 off 25 starts in 2019. Gray’s highest is 12 in 2018 off 31 starts. If I had to choose one, I would probably side with Senzatela. He gets a decision on 81% of his starts and comes away with a win 45.7% of the time. That’s the highest percent of these three. If we assume he gets around 30 starts this year then that gets us close to 14 wins. That would ideally be enough wiggle room above 8.5 to hit the over. If I had to choose one over, I’d roll with Senzatela.

However, I still don’t trust the bullpen and I do not trust the offense. No matter how well these three pitch, I don’t believe they’ll have enough support behind them to reliably back an over. On the flipside, all these numbers are reasonably set based off FanGraphs projections.

In a rarity for my gambling articles, I am recommending not taking any line here.

A trend to keep an eye on

Last year one of the great trends to follow during Rockies games was the First 5 Innings Under for games at Coors Field. This was a result of two main factors:

• The Rockies’ pitching staff generally being pretty good
• The Rockies’ offense generally being pretty bad

We generally saw a total around 6.5 or 7.5 and that helped to cash the under at a fairly healthy clip. I would anticipate, at least to start the season, that we’re probably going to see this trend continue. Check out what this line is at for the first couple games of the Dodgers series with matchups like Marquez vs. Kershaw and Bauer vs. Senzatela.

Another thing that is great about betting just the First 5 Innings:

You don’t have to worry about the bullpens and you’re essentially limiting the game to just the starting pitching matchup. With Marquez, Gray, and Senzatela not really expected to drop off much, and the offense not exactly set to improve much, I like the chances of seeing this trend continue early in 2021.

And that’s it for our 2021 Gambling Preview! While the Rockies may not be set up for the best season ever, there’s still money to be made during their games this year. Let’s have some fun! And if you ever want or need gambling advice, feel free to hit me up on Twitter at @SABRSkeptic.

As a note, these opinions do not necessarily reflect the views of Rox Pile or FanSided. When it comes to gambling, know when to stop before you start. If you think you might have a gambling problem, call (800) 522-4700.