Ryan McMahon Home Run Total – 22
Are we sensing a theme here? Let’s see if McMahon can break that trend and finally get us an over to take.
Last season he finished the year with nine homers and his over was our Rockies Lock of 2020 as he passed with flying colors. We’re looking at a lot of the same reasoning this season in his line.
First and foremost, if we adjusted that to a normal season’s worth of plate appearances (according to some projections on FanGraphs), then he would’ve finished with around 27 home runs on the season. Easy clearance on this number!
Secondly, McMahon will continue to get time either at second or at third now with Arenado’s departure. His previous high in games played was 141 in 2019 and it’s reasonable to assume he’ll end closer to 150 or more this season. In that 2019 season, he ended with a total of 24 homers. More justification for an over here.
But what I really like about McMahon’s stats is that he is continuing to CRUSH balls that he hits into the air. In 2019 he had a HR/FB% at 27.0% and in 2020 he held close to that at 24.3%. He also increased his Barrel Percentage from 8.7% to 11.2%. This all points towards the fact that when he hits the ball, he’s absolutely smoking it.
The bigger issue we’ll need to worry about here is how he does outside of the long ball. While he crushes balls in the air, he continues to have an extremely high Ground Ball Percentage (over 50% in both 2019 and 2020) and he continues to strikeout at a very high rate (34.2% in 2020). His wRC+ of 76 last season was very uninspiring and in most situations would be a cause for concern in regards to playing time potentially being taken away.
If that continues, though, then who else would the Rockies honestly put out there? We are in a weird spot where I feel that even if McMahon struggles overall that he will continue to get playing time. For that reason I am not worried about a decrease in playing time and we FINALLY have an over.
I am recommending Ryan McMahon Over 22 HRs (-115)