Colorado Rockies: Five individual, advanced offensive stats that must be fixed in 2021

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Sep 22, 2020; San Francisco, California, USA; Colorado Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon (24) reacts after being called out on strikes during the sixth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports /

The Colorado Rockies, despite the adage “you just know they’re gonna hit,” have not had a great offense in recent years. With the departure of Nolan Arenado, the Rockies will either slip back even further or they will have to have some players develop their bat more in 2021.

That’s part of the reason why the Rockies have decided to carry a third hitting coach with them in 2021 in Tim Doherty. While his title will officially be “MLB coach,” Doherty will mainly work with hitting coach Dave Magadan and assistant hitting coach Jeff Salazar on developing the Rockies hitters.

Doherty, 54, began coaching all the way back at Oral Roberts University in 1989 after graduating from there. He has worked extensively at the collegiate, independent league, minor league, and major league level (as an assistant hitting coach for the 2012 Red Sox. And the head hitting coach? Dave Magadan.)

He has been the Rockies Triple-A hitting coach since 2018.

Frankly, to even be in the conversation on being a contender in 2021 (I know, fans are shocked to hear this but hear me out), the Rockies will need five or six young players to take not just a step, but numerous steps in their development at the plate.

Based on the 2020 season, here are five stats for five different players that need to be fixed in 2021. Let’s take a look.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 24: Raimel Tapia #15 of the Colorado Rockies at bat against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on September 24, 2020 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /

Raimel Tapia average exit velocity (85.3 MPH): Bottom 6 percent of the league

Raimel Tapia had his best season in the majors in 2020 as he hit .321 with an OBP of .369. If he can get on base at that .369 clip for a full season, his speed (and being able to read pitchers pick-off moves well) will be the big key.

However, at the plate, in 2020, there may be an even bigger key: hard contact. His launch angle is among the worst in baseball (1.8 percent with league average being 11.9 percent) but he will never be a power guy but his hard contact rate is something that will help him get on base more.

However, if he could even get in the 5-6 percent territory, he would be able to sustain his 2020 season for the whole 2021 season and raise the slugging percentage by a wide margin.

For this exercise, though, we chose exit velocity over launch angle and barrel percentage, which is tied in somewhat with exit velocity but barrel percentage is more power-based. For his exit velocity, his average was 85.3 MPH. With a league average of 88.3 MPH, you may not think that it is a huge difference but it is. Just that 3 MPH difference is the difference between the middle mark (50th percentile) and being among the lowest six percent of qualifying major league players.

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 11: Garrett Hampson #1 of the Colorado Rockies sprints to third base on a triple in the eighth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on August 11, 2020 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) /

Garrett Hampson hard-hit percentage (23.4 percent): Bottom 2 percent of the league

Garrett Hampson’s game is a lot like Tapia: not a ton of power but very fast. In fact, Hampson is one of the fastest guys in baseball.

But in the major leagues Hampson’s biggest problem: he doesn’t get on base enough. After having a .396 OBP in his rookie campaign of 2018 (26 games), his OBP has dropped an even 100 points since. And that’s partially because he has hit for much weaker contact in the last two seasons.

Josh Fuentes exit velocity (84 MPH): Not ranked because he didn’t qualify

Josh Fuentes is, perhaps, the most perplexing guy on this list. In his first full season in the majors, he was on the bench to start the season but ended up taking over the everyday first baseman job after Daniel Murphy struggled.

Fuentes hit .306 and seemed to have some clutch hits as well. But, at least on offense, those are the only two things that show that he had a good season at the plate. In fact, he looks like he has some massively good luck.

With that .306 average, he only walked twice (twice!) on the season so his OBP was only .320. His slugging percentage wasn’t off the charts at .439 but it was above the league average of .418.

However, he had:

A hard hit percentage that would have put him in the bottom two or three percent of the league (23.9 compared to 34.9 league average)
A launch angle below league average
A chase percentage that was among the worst on the Rockies (38.8 percent compared to league average of 28.2 percent

But for this, we will discuss his average exit velocity of 84 MPH. 88.3 MPH was league average and the Rockies lowest qualifier was Daniel Murphy. His exit velocity was in the bottom five percent of the league and his average exit velocity was 85.1 percent. In other words, Fuentes, if he would have stayed on that pace and had enough bats to qualify, would have been in the lowest one or two percent of the league.

Part of that luck is why the Rockies decided to sign C.J. Cron to, almost definitely, be the team’s Opening Day starting first baseman but if Fuentes can spell Cron or Ryan McMahon at third or maybe even spell Raimel Tapia in left field occasionally and prove that it wasn’t luck but talent at the plate this year, the Rockies will have to find a place to put him in the lineup every day.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 21: Sam Hilliard #22 of the Colorado Rockies catches a fly ball against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on September 21, 2020 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /

Sam Hilliard strikeout rate (36.8 percent): Bottom 2 percent of the league

If you look at the basic numbers for Sam Hilliard in 2020, most are not pretty as he hit .210 with an on-base percentage of just .272. The slugging percentage was above league average at .439 but considering what he has achieved in the minor leagues, that could still see some improvement too.

But looking at the advanced stats for him, almost all are very good.

Barrel percentage of 9.5 percent (6.4 was league average). That led the Rockies.
Hard hit percentage of 44.4 percent, which was also best on the Rockies (34.9 was league average)
Average exit velocity was 88.3 MPH, when league average was exactly that: 88.3 MPH
Chase rate was 6th on the Rockies (among all position players) but it was slightly above league average (28.2 percent) at 29.3 percent

But he had two main problems: he whiffed a lot (whiff percentage) and he struck out a lot. His strikeout rate was 36.8 percent, which was 7th-worst among the 310 players that had at least 100 plate appearances in 2020. If you just consider his at-bats, his strikeout percentage was an even 40 percent. The league-high was its highest ever but it was still only 23 percent.

He also whiffed more than anybody on the Rockies as his whiff percentage was 38.9 percent (league average was 24.5 percent).

So, in other words, if the Rockies likely Opening Day center fielder can cut down on the swings and misses along with the strikeouts, he will be a big, middle-of-the-order bat for the Rockies.

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – JULY 21: Ryan McMahon #24 of the Colorado Rockies during a MLB exhibition game at Globe Life Field on July 21, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

Ryan McMahon strikeout rate (34.2 percent): Bottom 5 percent of the league

Like Sam Hilliard, Ryan McMahon’s big problem has been his strikeout rate. He has been in the top ten in the NL in each of the last two seasons in total strikeouts.

His whiff percentage was also very high in 2020 as it was 31.6 percent (league average was 24.5 percent). Of the 310 players that had 100 or more plate appearances in 2020, that 34.2 percent strikeout rate was 18th-worst in baseball.

Like Hilliard, his hard-hit percentage (43 percent compared to 34.9 percent league average) and average exit velocity (90.1 MPH with league average being 88.3 MPH) are well above league average (for the exit velocity, McMahon led the Rockies and he was the only guy who averaged above 90 MPH). But, also like Hilliard, his launch angle is a bit below league average.

For McMahon, though, since he has been in the major leagues longer than Hilliard and he will be replacing Nolan Arenado at third base, he will have more pressure to produce more at the plate for the Rockies and cutting down on the strikeouts will be a huge factor in that.

Next. Story and Black on Desmond’s leadership, Sheffield, and Bowden. dark

Overall for these five numbers, if they can be improved even to league average, the Rockies will be more on the path to “shock the world” by their 2021 performance. There are a few more guys that will need to see some improvements as well. And their 2021 performances may just be the ultimate decider in how the Rockies roster, coaching staff, and maybe even front office look in years to come.

All stats and percentages come from Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted.

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