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What the Colorado Rockies can learn from the Cleveland Indians-New York Mets Francisco Lindor trade

By Noah Yingling

CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 30: Shortstop Francisco Lindor #12 of the Cleveland Indians throws out DJ LeMahieu #26 of the New York Yankees at first during the sixth inning of Game Two of the American League Wild Card Series at Progressive Field on September 30, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Yankees defeated the Indians 10-9. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 30: Shortstop Francisco Lindor #12 of the Cleveland Indians throws out DJ LeMahieu #26 of the New York Yankees at first during the sixth inning of Game Two of the American League Wild Card Series at Progressive Field on September 30, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Yankees defeated the Indians 10-9. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /
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Carlos Carrasco of the New York Mets
CLEVELAND, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 30: Starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco #59 of the Cleveland Indians pitches during the first inning of Game Two of the American League Wild Card Series against the New York Yankees at Progressive Field on September 30, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

The Rockies won’t get as much as they had hoped

Gimenez was MLB.com’s 84th prospect entering 2020. Rosario was MLB.com’s #5 prospect before 2017 but he hasn’t lived up to that hype at the MLB level as with nearly 3.5 years of service time, he has had one season with a WAR of 0.5 or above.

Wolf and Greene were the Mets’ 9th and 10th best prospects.

To get that return, the Indians had to include one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball in Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco is signed for two more seasons at $24 million with a team option for a third year at $14 million. Carrasco has had an ERA+ of 129 since 2014 for Cleveland. The only season since 2016 that he has had an ERA+ below 128 was 2019 when it was 90 because he was diagnosed with leukemia in the season (and managed to fight it off, go into remission, and return later that season). Except for 2019 and 2020, Carrasco started 30 or more games each season from 2015 on.

Essentially, for the Rockies, that would be like adding German Marquez in a trade but Carrasco is better. Just check out their percentile ratings on Baseball Savant. Carrasco was better than Marquez in 2020 in exit velocity, expected ERA (xERA), barrel %, whiff %, spin rate on the curveball, spin rate on the fastball, hard-hit %, expected batting average (xBA), K %, expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). Marquez was better in fastball velocity and walk percentile.

Marquez has $34.4 million coming to him in the next three years and a team option for $16 million for a fourth year. That number coming to him will be higher depending on if the Rockies were to opt-out of the team option and if Marquez were to win or be in the top five for Cy Young voting.

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