What the Colorado Rockies can learn from the Cleveland Indians-New York Mets Francisco Lindor trade
The Cleveland Indians traded their franchise star, shortstop Francisco Lindor, to the New York Mets on Thursday and the trade has a significant impact on the Colorado Rockies and the trade talks surrounding shortstop Trevor Story.
The Cleveland Indians did what they have become known to do: trade away their veterans for younger prospects as they traded both their franchise stalwart Francisco Lindor and starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco to the New York Mets in exchange for infielder Andres Gimenez, infielder Amed Rosario, and two prospects (pitcher Josh Wolf and outfielder Isaiah Greene).
The trade has a huge impact on the Colorado Rockies and what they can expect to get in return for their shortstop Trevor Story in a possible trade this offseason. To see why that is, let’s compare Story and Lindor.
Story and Lindor are very comparable. They both will be free agents at the end of the 2021 season and they are arguably the best and second-best shortstops in baseball and you could flip a coin on who’s better. Last offseason, MLB Network’s Top Ten Right Now, ranked Story at number one and Lindor at number two entering the 2020 season. Lindor has played 170 more games than Story in the majors so he has accrued more in most categories but here are here’s comparing their WARs and Defensive Runs Saved in their career.
- Story: 1.0 rWAR per 28.71 games, 1.0 fWAR per 33.69 games, 114 OPS+, 114 wRC+, 1 fDRS per 114 games.
- Lindor: 1.0 rWAR per 27.07 games, 1.0 fWAR per 26.89 games, 117 OPS+, 118 wRC+, 1 fDRS per 145.6 games.
In other words, Lindor has the slight edge offensively but Story is better defensively but they are essentially, even. As a result, they likely would get the same return in a trade. So here’s what the Rockies can learn from the trade.
The Rockies won’t get as much as they had hoped
Gimenez was MLB.com’s 84th prospect entering 2020. Rosario was MLB.com’s #5 prospect before 2017 but he hasn’t lived up to that hype at the MLB level as with nearly 3.5 years of service time, he has had one season with a WAR of 0.5 or above.
Wolf and Greene were the Mets’ 9th and 10th best prospects.
To get that return, the Indians had to include one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball in Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco is signed for two more seasons at $24 million with a team option for a third year at $14 million. Carrasco has had an ERA+ of 129 since 2014 for Cleveland. The only season since 2016 that he has had an ERA+ below 128 was 2019 when it was 90 because he was diagnosed with leukemia in the season (and managed to fight it off, go into remission, and return later that season). Except for 2019 and 2020, Carrasco started 30 or more games each season from 2015 on.
Essentially, for the Rockies, that would be like adding German Marquez in a trade but Carrasco is better. Just check out their percentile ratings on Baseball Savant. Carrasco was better than Marquez in 2020 in exit velocity, expected ERA (xERA), barrel %, whiff %, spin rate on the curveball, spin rate on the fastball, hard-hit %, expected batting average (xBA), K %, expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). Marquez was better in fastball velocity and walk percentile.
Marquez has $34.4 million coming to him in the next three years and a team option for $16 million for a fourth year. That number coming to him will be higher depending on if the Rockies were to opt-out of the team option and if Marquez were to win or be in the top five for Cy Young voting.
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Would you want to trade Story and Marquez for that return?
So, in other words, would you, as a Rockies fan, be happy if the Rockies traded Story and Marquez for that return? Your reaction would probably be the same as Indians fans on social media: you would be outraged and say that the team was fleeced while calling for their owner to sell the team.
But the Rockies may still have to pull off that deal. If the Rockies cannot come to an agreement to sign Story long-term, that is the Rockies’ best option because if they do neither, they will get nothing for him.
Since they traded for Lindor, the Mets are definitely out on Story and likely out on Arenado. But considering that Mets ownership is the only ownership not to lose a dime in 2020 and they didn’t lose any of their current top prospects, the Mets still have plenty of players and money to get Arenado.
Now, it’s a matter of whether or not both the Mets want him enough and whether or not Arenado would approve of a trade.