There are a number of factors coming together that seem to make an Arenado trade this offseason unlikely, including his contract, the economic results of the pandemic, and Arenado’s shoulder injury.
With all of this in mind, if the Rockies are going to trade Arenado, it would make more sense for the team (and potential trade partners) to see Arenado on the field to start the 2021 campaign. He’ll turn 30 on April 16 and any team wishing to sink a high amount of money into him and his future will want to ensure he can return to the level of hitting he displayed before 2020.
Knowing all of this, we predict that, as manager Bud Black echoed in his talk with the media earlier this week, Arenado will be at the hot corner for the Rockies when the 2021 season begins on April 1 at Coors Field against the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. We also predict, however, that Arenado will be traded just before the 2021 trade deadline as Colorado works behind the scenes to sign Trevor Story (who has a contract expiring after the 2021 season) to a long-term deal.
We also predict that the Rockies will not trade Arenado within the division. Sorry, Dodgers fans, but it’s not going to happen.
Another prediction: Don’t be surprised to see St. Louis as Arenado’s trade destination midway through the 2021 campaign, particularly if fans can be in attendance. If not, they may be more lukewarm on acquiring Arenado.