Colorado Rockies: This is their perfect lineup for the 2021 season

The perfect lineup for the Colorado Rockies could be viewed a few ways.

The Colorado Rockies lineup has struggled for a few years now and while they can take steps to make it better internally, they won’t have a great lineup until they make some bigger free agent signs or trade acquisitions.

The Colorado Rockies, by wRC+, have had one of the worst offenses in the entire sport for a long time now. Even when they made the playoffs (in back-to-back seasons), they never were above 24th in baseball in the park-adjusted all-encompassing offensive stat. While some may have scoffed at it while the Rockies were making the playoffs, there’s no denying it now if you’ve seen the Rockies in 2019 and/or 2020.

To address their offensive issues, frankly, they need to spend more money than they claim they have available. Trading Nolan Arenado and/or Trevor Story this offseason would only exacerbate their offensive issues as the two players are the best Rockies offensive players and it’s not even close. Even if they traded Arenado or Story for greats like Mike Trout, they would still have a lot of issues.

In addressing a “perfect lineup,” for the Rockies in 2021, there are a few ways you could look at it. You can look at it without Arenado and/or Story and to say that the lineup without them would be less than “perfect” is an understatement. You could look at a lineup with them in it and the Rockies making big additions on the free agent or trade front so that they have a “perfect lineup.” You could also look at a lineup with that has some mid-level additions or you can look at reality: the Rockies as they are currently constructed. After all, the Rockies front office has all but indicated that they are not going to do much for a third straight offseason.

For that reason, that’s the “perfect lineup” we will look at: one as they are currently constructed. But we will consider that DH, as that’s what they had last year and they could have it in 2021. Let’s dive in.

Raimel Tapia would leadoff and play left field for the Rockies.

Leading off for the Rockies would be Raimel Tapia and he would play left field. Tapia did make some strides in 2020 after a slow start to the season. He hit .321/.369/.402 with an OPS+ of 97.

Ideally, the slugging percentage would be much higher, even if he is leading off. He had 59 hits in 2020 and only 11 were extra-base hits. Even if he could become a doubles machine, hitting leadoff for at least once a game, with his speed, the Rockies could easily score at least one run in those innings. The Rockies would, ideally, like if he gets more walks too.

According to StatCast, Tapia was in the bottom seven percent (or worse) in the league in barrel percentage (two percent), exit velocity, and expected slugging percentage so squaring up the ball more will be key as well and it will likely lead to Tapia getting more extra-base hits.

Defensively, he was much better in 2020 compared to previous seasons as he was above average in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) whereas he was well below league average in previous seasons.

In other words, like most of the Rockies players, Tapia has taken some strides to become a solid MLB regular player, but now, he needs to keep developing, not maintain or regress.

Hitting second for the Rockies is shortstop Trevor Story. For a “perfect lineup” that gives the Rockies a chance to win, it has Trevor Story in it. He very well could be traded this offseason, though. If he is traded the Rockies must get MLB-ready or young, controllable, MLB players in return.

In 2020, Story hit .289/.355/.519 with an OPS+ of 118. He was on pace (in a full 162-game season) for 31 home runs, 77 RBI, 36 doubles, 11 triples, 187 hits, and 42 stolen bases. As you likely already know, he is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball as well as he has had 45 fDRS in his five MLB seasons.

Entering 2020, MLB Network even ranked Story as the best shortstop in baseball when shortstop is, arguably, the deepest position in baseball as it has the likes of Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Dansby Swanson, Corey Seager, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Gleyber Torres, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts. Even if he isn’t the best shortstop entering 2021, he is definitely in the top three or five, which is why it’s imperative that the Rockies either have him in their lineup or trade him for players that could replace his bat in the lineup.

Charlie Blackmon would hit third for the Rockies.

Hitting third would be Charlie Blackmon and he would be the designated hitter. Even though Blackmon has stated his disdain for the DH, of the Rockies outfielders, he is the worst defensively (-39 fDRS in the past three seasons) so that’s why he would DH. If the NL doesn’t have the DH, he would play right field and the Rockies’ outfield defensive alignment would have to change.

Blackmon started 2020 off on a terror as he was hitting .500/.527/.721 in the Rockies’ first 17 games but like the Rockies for the last three-quarters of the season, he fell off a cliff. He hit .216/.283/.327 to make his season total slash line .303/.356/.448 with an OPS+ of 103 (wRC+ of 97, so, essentially, league average).

If the DH is a permanent fixture in the NL, the Rockies will likely rotate several players through the position as a “half-day off” but Blackmon should be the primary player in this role.

Sam Hilliard would play right field and hit fifth for the Rockies.

Hilliard’s bat regressed in 2020 as he hit .210/.272/.438 and an OPS+ of 76. That average and OBP is a bit problematic for a fifth-hole hitter. However, his power is what places him in the fifth spot. If he isn’t in the fifth spot, he would likely flip spots with the guy who is in the seventh spot.

Hilliard showed his power in 2019 as well when he made his MLB debut as in 27 games, he hit .273/.356/.649 with an OPS+ of 137. If the Rockies can get that for a full season, watch out because he would have 42 home runs, which would put him in Arenado territory, at least on offense.

Defensively, he was much better in right field than left or center field in 2020 so perhaps, the Rockies would be best served to put him in right field permanently. However, if the DH is not to stay in the National League in 2021, Hilliard would likely find himself on the Rockies bench.

Josh Fuentes would hit sixth and play first base for the Rockies in their perfect lineup.

Fuentes broke out in 2020 when he hit .306/.320/.439 with an OPS+ of 90. However, the peripheral stats seem to indicate that Fuentes was a beneficiary of some very good luck.

For example, his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) was a staggering .406, when league average is around .300. Additionally, he had a wOBAcon of .432 when the league average is .370, his barrel rate was only 1.4 percent (league average is 6.4 percent), his hard-hit percentage was 23.9 (league average is 34.9), his average exit velocity was 84 MPH (league average is 88.4), and his launch angle was 10.6 degrees (11.9 is league average).

In 2021, first off, he needs to be more patient at the plate. His chase rate was a staggering 38.8 percent (league average was 28.2 percent) and he only walked twice in the season. Twice. That’s it.

Defensively, he was the Rockies second-best player (behind his cousin) with a mind-boggling 9 Defensive Runs Saved in just 30 games played. That’s the best defensive numbers that the Rockies have had at first base since Todd Helton.

His bat will need to keep developing as over a 162-game season, those peripheral stats will catch up to the overall results that he had but considering the Rockies’ current options, he will likely be their everyday first baseman regardless.

Hitting fifth in the Rockies’ “perfect lineup” and playing second base is Ryan McMahon.

McMahon has to develop more with his bat and that is, by far, his biggest issue.

As the peripheral stats show, his main problem is that he strikes out in nearly 40 percent of his at-bats when the league strikes out about 25 percent of the time, which is an all-time high in and of itself. When he does make contact, he hits the ball well as his wOBACON (weighted on-base average on contact) is 46 points above league average, his hard-hit percentage is 43 percent (league average is 34.9 percent), and his exit velocity is above league average.

He is just worse than league average in launch angle, strikeout rate, and results (the thing that matters the most). In 2020, he hit .215/.295/.419 with an OPS+ of 79. In many aspects, he was the opposite of Josh Fuentes in 2020: the numbers seem to indicate that Fuentes had every break go for him and McMahon ran into some bad luck.

With being in the five slot, McMahon’s bat must develop for the Rockies to be contenders. If his bat does not progress in 2021, McMahon may find himself out of a roster spot.

Hitting eighth in the Rockies lineup would be catcher Elias Diaz. Diaz was re-signed by the Rockies this offseason to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration and with the team cutting Tony Wolters and Drew Butera becoming a free agent, it looks likely that Diaz will become the Rockies’ primary catcher.

In 2020, which was his first with the Rockies, the former Pittsburgh Pirate was the Rockies third catcher but as the season carried on, Diaz got more playing time simply because he was better offensively and defensively than both Wolters and Butera. However, that’s not a very high bar as all three of them were well below league average on offense, and Diaz and Butera were league average, at best, defensively.

Diaz played in 26 games for the Rockies and he hit .235/.288/.353 with an OPS+ of 62 when neither Wolters nor Butera had an OPS+ above 41. Defensively, Diaz was at league average with DRS and with Runs Extra Strikes (which is the main pitch framing metric). However, in 2019, with the Pirates, he had -21 DRS so if he is like that defensively, that will be a problem.

The Rockies hope that he will return to his 2018 offensive stats when he hit .286/.339/.452 with an OPS+ of 116 in 82 games. If that returns for Diaz, he will be moving up in the lineup and if the DH doesn’t stay in 2021, he would move up a spot to seventh anyway.

And hitting ninth in the Rockies lineup (eighth without the DH) is center fielder Garrett Hampson.

This spot could also go to Yonathan Daza, who would also hit ninth and play center field but Hampson gets the nod here.

For Hampson, the problem for him is easy to identify: he needs to get on base more. Obviously, that is easier said than done but if he could get on base 35 percent of the time (.350 OBP), he would be one of the most dangerous players in the NL because of his speed. By sprint speed, he was the seventh-fastest player in the entire sport in 2020 and he was fourth fastest in 2019.

The problem is that he hit .234/.287/.383 with an OPS+ of 68 in 2020 and his OPS+ in 2019 was 66. If the Rockies can get anything close to what he had at the end of the 2019 season (five home runs, eight RBI, seven stolen bases, .343/.387/.586), then he would obviously be way higher in the lineup but that was a very small sample size (16 games). Defensively, in 120 innings in center field, he had 0 fDRS so he was league average out there.

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Hampson will still likely see some time in left field, shortstop, and second base as well but, as the Rockies are currently constructed, he should be the Rockies’ primary center fielder.

To recap, here is the Rockies’ “perfect lineup,” as currently constructed, and how their roster will likely be entering the 2021 season.

1. Raimel Tapia, LF
2. Trevor Story, SS
3. Charlie Blackmon, RF
4. Nolan Arenado, 3B
5. Sam Hilliard, RF
6. Josh Fuentes, 1B
7. Ryan McMahon, 2B
8. Elias Diaz, C
9. Garrett Hampson, CF

That lineup is definitely not the 1927 Yankees or the Blake Street Bombers reincarnate but that’s the best lineup that the Rockies have as they are currently constructed. Let us know what you think either in the comment section or on social media.