Colorado Rockies: Predicting what they will do at first base in 2021

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DENVER, CO – AUGUST 30: Todd Helton #17 of the Colorado Rockies stands at first base in the ninth inning of a game against the Cincinnati Reds at Coors Field on August 30, 2013 in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies beat the Reds 9-6. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

If you’re one of the few Colorado Rockies fans who’ve yet to look forward to free agency, hold your breath. Before checking the free agents at first base, take a full breathing class – it’s bad.

Major League Baseball is the land of hard-hitting corner infielders. Colorado Rockies fans know it well in Nolan Arenado. Todd Helton sends his regards as well. Now, at least the spot across the diamond from Arenado, is a wasteland.

Daniel Murphy, Ian Desmond, and even Josh Fuentes have made their cases. Outside of an occasional diving play, the resumés are rife with problems. Ryan McMahon also tried out, but looks suited to be a DJ LeMahieu of sorts at second base – a lanky fielder with an elite glove, though he lacks the contact skills of the former All-Star.

There was a time when the Rockies had a glut of position players in their farm system – they were good, versatile, and young. Now, the pantry’s run somewhat bare.

Decisions will always pile on one another. Decide to eat a bagel for breakfast with cream cheese? Now a bagel sandwich for lunch is probably out.

The Rockies’ leader, Jeff Bridich, has made several decisions. He decided to make trades of players for minimal returns. He also decided to sign veterans who serve no purpose to the club besides holding back youngsters. Now, the club’s 40-man roster features roughly three players who could play first.

Grant Lavigne and Michael Toglia make up the farm system’s hopes of producing a quality first baseman in the future.

In the most perfect of worlds, Toglia, a switch-hitting first baseman who was drafted out of UCLA, would be the guy. He would’ve shot up through the system and be looking at an extremely early debut in the big leagues.

Instead, Toglia hasn’t even made it to Double-A, largely due to inexperience and the virus shutting down minor league baseball. For short-season Boise, he slashed .248/.369/.483 in 41 games. In the short sample, he also showcased a quality glove.

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He figures to make an impact at some point, but Toglia’s debut appears to be at least two years away. Lavigne hasn’t surpassed Single-A either, so he’s on the same timeline.

Enter, once again, Josh Fuentes (did you know he’s Nolan Arenado’s cousin?)

Family jokes aside, Fuentes represents a full-scale wild card. He’s hitting on a 16 at the casino. It could work out, but the odds of it busting are high.

If nothing else, he’s a very level-headed player. In conversations, he’s shown to be a very quiet, get-work-done player. The same type of personality is all over the Rockies’ clubhouse, so the fit makes sense.

Now, it’s about producing.

Fuentes, believe it or not, was third on the Rockies’ 2020 roster in bWAR (1.0). The usual suspects, both Arenado (1.4) and Trevor Story (2.1) led the way. Skeptics point to the club’s lack of talent for the lofty finish, which is fair.

Moving forward, Fuentes’ success against left-handed pitching most improve. He’s hit .204 against them in his career and only improved to .258 last year. The underlying numbers point to much of the struggles being valid, rather than by chance. As a right-handed corner infielder, the opposite splits need changing.

While teams across the league are shuffling in new and successful first baseman, the Rockies are at a standstill – Ryan Mountcastle isn’t walking through the west end of Coors Field.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 26: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) DJ LeMahieu #26 of the New York Yankees reacts after his sixth inning two run double against the Miami Marlins at Yankee Stadium on September 26, 2020 in New York City. The Yankees defeated the Marlins 11-4. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Two years ago, DJ LeMahieu tallied a double, walk, and a strikeout against the Milwaukee Brewers in the clinching game of the National League Division Series. When he left, so did the security he brought.

At November’s onset, in 2018, I put together a piece. I wrote, “Swallowing the loss of a franchise mainstay is a difficult proposition. DJ LeMahieu has seen his Colorado Rockies career reach an impasse, and there’s only one solution.”

The solution: move on from LeMahieu and find a viable replacement, saving money in turn.

Of all the columns I’ve written, few predictions have gone worse. He signed a two-year, $24 million deal with the New York Yankees, roughly the exact deal the Rockies gave Daniel Murphy.

LeMahieu has slashed .336/.386/.536 in 195 games since the two deals were signed. He’s made an All-Star team and likely would’ve made another if the festivities commenced in 2020. He finished fourth in the American League MVP voting last year and figures to bring in another heap of votes and another Silver Slugger this year.

Now, he’s on the market again. This time, he won’t be cheap, nor will he be attainable by the Rockies, so the options are scarce.

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Tommy La Stella (1.2), Mitch Moreland (0.9) and Brad Miller (0.8) are the three options behind LeMahieu with the three-highest WAR totals last season who’ve seen action at first base. Of them, it’s hard to predict any, besides La Stella, to be impactful.

Before last season, La Stella was signed by the Los Angeles Angels for $3.25 million. The one-year pact was paid out by the Oakland Athletics after he was traded near the deadline.

En route to 0.5 WAR, he slugged .449 and had a park-adjusted OPS of 127 – not terrible. Murphy had an OPS+ of 54 last season while Fuentes finished at 90.

The Rockies currently have six hitters on their 40-man roster who hit left-handed. Among them, David Dahl has dealt with injuries, Raimel Tapia and Ryan McMahon have dealt with inconsistency, and Charlie Blackmon will turn 34 next season.

Adding La Stella could be a valuable move for versatility sake as he’s both left-handed and has appeared at every infield position, except shortstop. The last time the Rockies made a move for a versatile, yet inexperienced first baseman was Murphy. Before that, they tried to bring in Ian Desmond, who eventually took the same role.

Both moves were horrendous, so optimism for La Stella would be limited.

Several switch-hitting options exist for the Rockies as well. Carlos Santana, Asdrúbal Cabrera, and Neil Walker are all free agents. All three are at least 35 years old, so a one-year, mentor-type contract could make sense.

La Stella will likely require a multiple-year deal, but the virus’ financial impacts figure to limit the year-to-year values of several contracts this offseason. Maybe the club simply gives him the money they were giving to Murphy.

The other three options all represent both a fiscal and performance discount. As of now, there’s been no indication a move will happen at all.

Oct 5, 2020; Los Angeles, California, USA; Oakland Athletics second baseman Tommy La Stella (3) forces out Houston Astros center fielder George Springer (4) during the first inning in game one of the 2020 ALDS at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /

Everything is bleak, at least given the market and current Rockies’ roster. The past gives fans a path to see where the team will turn.

They’ve received bad news. Daniel Murphy was brought on as a former World Series hero. Ian Desmond was brought off a change-of-position breakout elsewhere. Even relievers poured in as fans watched and hoped the club’s “settling” moves would result in a jackpot.

Not a single one did, but the settling isn’t stopping.

The Rockies have constantly settled for both average hitting and pitching, though they can build a strong case every elite hitter should finish their career splitting centerfield trees that cascade behind the wall. This offseason, it will be more of the same.

Even Tommy La Stella feels like a lofty proposition given the Rockies’ past.

My wager would be on a mix of market and in-house options. I think Josh Fuentes gets the bulk of the at-bats next year after a small breakout in 2020’s shortened slate.

Alongside Fuentes, I believe the Rockies bring in an extremely affordable option along the lines of another Yonder Alonso. Whether the signee is a guy like Justin Smoak or Matt Adams, it will be a very small, very low-cost option.

Fans will be left scratching their heads again. Or, maybe not – they’ve been through the same process for years.

Could Kolten Wong be a free agent target?. dark. Next

Prediction: Josh Fuentes and a cheap veteran

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