Colorado Rockies missing the playoffs could prove twice as costly

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PHOENIX, ARIZONA – AUGUST 24: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies hits a single against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of the MLB game at Chase Field on August 24, 2020 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

You’ve imagined a Colorado Rockies team without Nolan Arenado way too many times already.

You’ve thought about what kind of trade package you’d want the Colorado Rockies to get back for him should they decide to move him in either the offseason or at the deadline next year. You’ve thought about how much it would hurt if he just opted out and the Rockies weren’t able to get anything in return for him. You know that opt out is at the end of next season and you know the Rockies need to do everything they can to appease him so that he chooses to stay.

You’ve probably already seen the quote from Arenado on Tuesday about making this season’s playoffs to prove the Rockies are on the right track. “Eight teams make the playoffs and if we’re not one of those teams, that’s not a very good sign.” And he’s right.

Making the playoffs is critical to showing Arenado that the Rockies should be the team he stays with past 2021. But it’s also critical for another key piece to Colorado’s success. One who’s been certainly more valuable than Arenado in 2020 and arguably in 2019 … Trevor Story.

That two-year, $27.5 million contract he received after arbitration? Yup … it’s up at the end of 2021, timed just perfectly with Arenado’s opt out.

Have you imagined what it’d be like to not just lose Arenado to another team, but also Story? Because that is a very real possibility if the Rockies miss the playoffs this season.

And it’s not that missing the playoffs this season would be the final straw for both Arenado and Story. But it’s going to be the catalyst that starts a true snowball effect.

It’ll force Colorado GM Jeff Bridich and the front office to make moves in the offseason to improve the team quickly with significant additions that make an immediate impact in the right areas. That’s happening one way or another but it’ll be intensified should they miss the playoffs.

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There’s not going to be time to let these moves play out over a couple seasons either. With two superstars’ contracts essentially ending at the end of the year (with Arenado’s obviously being the opt out), there has to be no doubt that the Rockies will compete for a playoff spot, even beyond the optimistic hopes of Dick Monfort.

Because if there is any doubt that they’re a playoff team during June (given that next season’s schedule resembles anything normal), then there will need to be serious discussions revolving trading both Arenado and Story prior to a July 31 trade deadline (again, assuming next season is normal) so that you at least get some value for them.

Are you ready for that conversation?

And therein lies the issue with not making the playoffs this year. It’s an expanded field and the Rockies are on the outside looking in with a roster whose results resemble much of what we saw in 2019. Monfort felt this was a 94-win team in a normal season. That’s essentially 35 wins in our shortened season and the Rockies won’t be reaching that mark this season, even if they won every remaining game on the schedule. They’re well below Monfort’s expectations, which may not be a shock to most of us, but they’re still underachieving. After their 11-3 start their odds to make the playoffs were 74.7% and today they sit at a lowly 12.1%. It’s an incredible drop, but one that none of us are likely shocked by.

They’re two games back of a playoff spot as of Wednesday night with 12 games to go. It’s not impossible, but there’s a relatively small margin of error for the Rockies, especially with eight of the remaining games being split between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.

And even if making the playoffs only helps the Arenado/Story situation artificially, it’s at least a small step to show them this team can be competitive and potentially can attract the free agents that Jeff Bridich will need to acquire this offseason.

But missing the playoffs will make this offseason one of the most important offseasons in Rockies’ history. Every move is going to be highly scrutinized and, if they don’t work out by June, then we should expect that neither Nolan Arenado or Trevor Story will be on the roster on July 31, 2021, much less at any point in 2022 or beyond. The left side of Coors Shield will be no longer.

dark. Next. The 3 most interesting things we heard recently from Nolan Arenado

Make the playoffs and things can potentially be rectified. Miss the playoffs and you put the fate of Arenado’s and Story’s Rockies careers in the hands of Jeff Bridich and the work he’ll put in to one single offseason.

Do you trust him to make the right moves?

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You’ve imagined a Colorado Rockies team without Nolan Arenado way too many times already.

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