Colorado Rockies: Has Trevor Story rewritten club’s pecking order?

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - AUGUST 24: Infielders Trevor Story #27 and Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies during the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on August 24, 2020 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Rockies defeated the Diamondbacks 3-2. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - AUGUST 24: Infielders Trevor Story #27 and Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies during the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on August 24, 2020 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Rockies defeated the Diamondbacks 3-2. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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Trevor Story of the Colorado Rockies
DENVER, CO – JULY 16: Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies rounds the bases after a ninth inning solo homer against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field on July 16, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Nothing can impact a team like a hitter smashing balls into the outfield grass and seats. Both guys do it well, but who does it better?

Before starting any conversation, it makes sense to lay ground rules.

Comparing two player’s careers is tough. Nolan Arenado got his start in 2013, while Trevor Story didn’t arrive until 2016. Comparing nearly any career hitting stat will favor the more tenured star.

The other factor is recent history. For a breakdown of which player is better right now, it doesn’t make sense to look at anything more than this season and last. Both players have posted elite numbers in the last two years, so it’s not merely cherry-picking.

Since the start of 2019, Arenado leads Story in home runs, runs batted in, hits, and all three figures included in the triple slash (batting average, on-base percentage and slugging). Immediately, the conclusion seems obvious … but context is key.

In the same span, Arenado has played nine more games, though it’s only resulted in six more plate appearances. The mere five hits and four home runs which separate the two players can be mostly discarded. The runs batted in can also be ignored given Story’s position in front, or directly behind Arenado in the lineup most games, as well as the inherit luck involved in driving in runs.

Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies

The effectiveness of hits is a huge factor.

Last year, Arenado’s weight on-base average (wOBA) led Story by .012. This year, the equation has flipped with the shortstop holding a .064 lead. The weighted runs created (wRC+) stemming from those base hits favors Story this year, 130-88. Last year, it was flopped, 128-121.

Clearly, Story has produced at the plate much more than Arenado this year. Last year, the two were nearly equal, though it favored the third baseman.

Story would benefit from a lineup with him in a position to drive in runs. Arenado already has the benefit, thanks in part to Story’s ability to get on base, as well as wreak havoc on opposing catchers.

From a pure hitting standpoint, Story’s ability to avoid soft-hit balls (only 13.9 percent over his career; 9.5 percent this year) is crucial. Arenado has a career rate of 15.7 percent, including a lofty 21.3-percent mark this year. The younger star takes the battle between exit velocities too (91-or-higher both years compared to Arenado’s 89.5 and 87.6 averages).

Counting stats tend to point towards Arenado – he’s simply in a better spot to rack them up.

Nearly every number related to hitting the ball hard and producing extra-base hits points towards Story. The differences are only a hair though.

Winner: Story, but not by much

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