Colorado Rockies: The keys to winning awards based on past results

Reaching a World Series is a feat the Colorado Rockies have accomplished only once – though fans likely don’t need a reminder how it went. Awards are largely the one area they can always compete, though their proverbial goalposts are farther away than other teams.

Only four years before I was born, a professional baseball team dubbed the Colorado Rockies, after the mountains which cascade over the western view of the park, was brought about.

Through 27 full seasons, and the latest abbreviated campaign, they have yet to bring home the types of awards other franchises have. For the purposes of this piece, the focus will be on the league’s two biggest accolades: Most Valuable Player and Cy Young.

As many know, each league, both American and National, gets their own crowns. It’s the one sport out of the major four in America which boasts a pair of players for their awards.

Though the number of awards doled out is doubled, naturally, the Rockies are only eligible for one of each given their standing in the NL.

While the goal of this piece is to lay a blueprint of sorts for the team to win awards moving forward, it also serves as a barometer for their chances this year.

In the 60-game, shortened campaign, the Rockies have already seen their stalwart outfielder, Charlie Blackmon, accomplish feats which seemed impossible. He started the year hitting nearly .500, putting the league on notice as he looks to become the first player since Ted Williams to hit .400 or better in a season – though historians would likely always put an asterisk next to the accomplishment given the year’s anomalous nature.

He’s not the only Rockies’ standout, though.

The Colorado Rockies have the same annual problem: pitching.

Some years, the bullpen struggles – most years, probably – and other years, the rotation falters. Through it all, they’ve had multiple pitchers put together seasons worthy of award consideration.

In 2018, an argument could be made the Rockies deserved a pair of Cy Young considerations. Kyle Freeland finished fourth, posting a 2.85 earned run average across 202.1 innings. His running mate, Germán Márquez, posted a 3.77 mark, including a 2.61 tally in his 14, second-half starts.

Freeland’s track record since then has largely proved voter’s opinions right.

Jacob deGrom raced out to a 1.70 ERA across 32 starts – 31 of which saw the hurler allow three earned runs or less. The season brought about images of Bob Gibson’s 1968 campaign.

Arguing Freeland’s legitimacy as a candidate is easy. Arguing he should’ve won is a much harder task given the historic season of his counterpart from Queens.

The easier case to argue is Ubaldo Jimenez’s 2010 trek to lore.

The late Roy Halladay, thanks to a 2.44 ERA in Philadelphia’s run to a National League Championship Series appearance, took home the hardware. Part of the problem arises when looking at his numbers.

In 2010, Jimenez finished with a 2.88 ERA and a 161 ERA+ which adjusts to a player’s ballpark. Those marks, while being some of the best in club history, are also inches, not feet, away from those of Halladay.

An argument can easily be made for Jimenez over every pitcher who finished ahead of him in 2010. For a piece of history to aid his case, he also tossed a no-hitter against the Braves and went eight-or-more innings in nine different starts.

Throw Jimenez and Freeland’s candidacy into the 2007 race – where Jeff Francis finished ninth despite a 4.22 ERA – and both likely take home the award. Timing can often be a looming factor on awards.

The Colorado Rockies have a few players that could win an MVP award.

Nolan Arenado teases fans nearly every year. Trevor Story’s gotten in on the action, and even Charlie Blackmon has played peekaboo in the race.

The tale, outside of Larry Walker’s run, is an old one for Colorado. All it took for the outfielder was a season in which he led the league in on-base percentage (.452), slugging (.720), total bases (409) and home runs (49). Easy, right?

For these Rockies, it hasn’t been.

Each year, something’s gone wrong for the stars of Colorado. It was Christian Yelich escaping from Miami to light the league ablaze; Cody Bellinger riding a hot start to stardom and even Giancarlo Stanton crushing everything in the zone holding them back.

Since only 2015, eight Rockies have finished in the top-12 of MVP voting. Arenado leads the way with five of his own, but Story has accomplished it twice and Blackmon finished fifth in 2017.

Arenado’s been held back the most by his home park. In each of his five seasons near the top of voting, he had a park-adjusted on-base plus slugging (OPS+) of at least 124. Bellinger posted a 167 in 2019 and Yelich finished at 164 in his own award season.

In 2000, when Helton finished at 8.9 WAR – the highest mark in the NL – he ran up against the buzzsaw of Barry Bonds’ 188 OPS+ and Jeff Kent’s somewhat questionable candidacy which was inflated by 125 RBI and a .334 average.

If Helton had his breakout season in 2020, rather than 2000, it would’ve been quite the case. At that time, analytics and truly breaking down baseball player’s value just wasn’t as stringent.

It would take a lot for a Rockies player to win an MVP award.

A single stat isn’t what determines an MVP. Often times, for hitters, it’s a pair of stats: OPS+ and wins above replacement (WAR). The former puts a barometer on hitting, while the latter brings about everything a player does in a game.

In the rare case of a pitcher in MVP conversations, their WAR plays a huge role, as well as their ERA and, oftentimes, the number of strikeouts they’ve piled up.

The winner of MVP, no matter the league, has only finished below 7.0 WAR one time since 2008 (Dustin Pedroia; 6.9). Only six respective seasons in Rockies’ history have seen a player on the club finish with more than 7.0 WAR – three of the occurrences were by Todd Helton, with the single-season leader being Walker’s 9.8 in 1997.

Alongside WAR is OPS+ which is a huge contributor to MVP voting.

While most fans shy away from wOBA and other analytics which can also be very useful, common talks center around OPS+ which is relatively easy to understand. How often did a player get on base, and how many extra-base hits did they conjure up, all in the context of the ballparks.

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No current Rockies’ hitter has a spot in the franchise’s single-season, top-10 of OPS+. Charlie Blackmon got the closest during his 2017 campaign (141).

To win an MVP in today’s superstar-ridden landscape, it’s fair to say a hitter can’t win the award without an OPS+ of at least 145. In fact, the last hitter to do so in the NL was Jimmy Rollins who tallied a 119 as part of one of the weirder voting results in recent history.

Rollins finished outside the top-5 in both WAR and OPS+, on a team who lost in the Divisional Round of the postseason.

Outside of Rollins, Kris Bryant’s 146 mark was the closest to falling short. While a 145 OPS+ is likely the floor, it’s also not a surefire way. Many of the recent MVP winners have put up 160-or-higher and been among the leaders in WAR as well.

Story’s ascension as a do-all shortstop has been remarkable. Arenado’s ability to lead the middle of the order, all while being the league’s best fielder multiple times, is rare as well.

Neither figures to win the award very soon.

Outside of a 50-homer, 140-RBIs season in which they account for roughly 8.5-9.0 WAR, there’s just little room for a Rockies’ hitter to win the award. Even with those numbers, the amount of backlash Coors Field hitters take is enough to topple their case.

Now, if Germán Márquez could ever dip below a 2.00 ERA and lead the team to the postseason, there’s likely a better chance. Until then, it’s going to be a tough road.